What we learned from Game Week 28

Tuesday, February 27 2018

 

Mixed bag of results over the weekend. Highlights were the Huddersfield & BTTS at 9/1 which sent West Brom down (more of that in a tick) and ‘Arry Kane sorting out a late 3/1 winner at Palace. Low lights were Southampton and the referee conspiring to snatch away 4/1 AND 6/1 winners in the final minute at Burnley. Grrr! 

Still, I’ll sort those pesky Saints out by the end of this post. Oh yeah. 

West Brom are down…

If Albion had anything at all in their ball-bag, Saturday was the time to show it. They didn’t. They rolled over and had their Huddersfield and now require snookers to stay up. It would take an 18pt miracle to stand any chance of survival, so six wins from ten matches. That’s 33 matches less than the last six took them. 

Funny old season for Jonny Evans. One minute he is the subject of a bidding war between Man City and Arsenal, the next he’s is an Uber driver in Spain. 

Where to Guv? The Etihad…? Nah, make that the Championship…    

And then there were two…

So if West Brom are gone, who will join them? Saturday’s big winners were Huddersfield and Brighton, coming out on top in the two six-pointers against Albion and Swansea. Both have handy home form too – a key ingredient in PL buoyancy. 

Huddersfield have averaged 1.7pts per match at home to teams outside the Top Five. And maintaining that on the run-in – v Swansea, Palace, Watford, Everton and Arsenal – would hit the 40pts mark.
And after landing us a 9/1 winner on Saturday, I’m all for another season of Terriers in the top flite. 

Brighton have averaged an even better 1.9pts in their unbeaten 11 home matches v non Top Five teams. Home form that puts them above Bournemouth and Burnley and comfortably Top Half for the season. 

The bunfight below…

The Seagull’s run-in (fly in, descent, whatever…) is less palatable than Huddersfield’s – Arsenal, Tottenham and Man United are still to visit (and there are ugly trips to Man City and Liverpool to negotiate). But if they can match the 8pts accumulated in their last four in their next ten, that’ll be 39pts. And a fighting chance.

Elsewhere, Stoke will need at least four wins (plus change), which will require an upset or two. City, Tottenham and Burnley are all due in town, with Arsenal and Liverpool trips still required. They face a final week 12-pointer of Palace at home and Swansea away. Oooff!

The season’s two great revivalists need to prove they haven’t peaked too early. If Palace can get through a vicious March with their dukes still up – Man United, Chelsea, Huddersfield and Liverpool are queueing up to make Woy swear – they’ll effectively have a six-match play-off with largely Bottom Third bedfellows. 

Swansea’s recent habits suggest they can get 12 of the likely 13pts required at home. And their next three v West Ham, Huddersfield and Southampton could take care of half of that haul. So long as they don’t get distracted by Wembley’s twin towers and a daft notion of winning the FA Cup. 

Saints alive?

Southampton are still involved in the cup too, of course. But from here, lifting the famous old trophy looks about as likely as getting 13pts from their remaining home matches (to hit the 40-mark). They certainly won’t get much juice out of Man City and Chelsea, so will need to at least match their average of 1.37pts from their six (count ‘em… SIX!) remaining away games. And personally I don’t see it.

That’ll learn them for snatching away our 4/1 and 6/1 winners out of our hands in the last minute at Burnley!

So it’s Southampton and Stoke to join the Baggies for me. Currently trading at 16/1. Worth a nibble, Badmen. 

Don't have nightmares,

Matt Nesbitt
 
  

Coupon Busters - Game Week 28

Friday, February 23 2018

 

Let’s have a little shufty at the weekend’s Coupon Busters, shall we…?

Nine Premier League matches and an EFL Cup Final – which will be rerun at the Emirates on Thursday night – for us to sift through. 

Here’s how it looks from here…

Banker

Liverpool to beat West Ham and Leicester to beat Stoke are the stand out ‘bankers’. But 2/9 (on Liverpool) has no appeal although I fancy the Foxes to win the lunchtime fixture, it could be a struggle. So I’ll swerve the 7/10 on offer in favour of a more comfortable nailed-on 4/7 (1.57).

That’s what you’ll get for Man City to lift their first trophy. Take it. 

Long Shot

It’s been 11 without a win for Burnley, but I fancy this could be the end of that run. Six of their nine wins have ended 1-0 and at 13/2 in the Correct Score market, that’s worth a punt. 

Looking for a coupon buster, Huddersfield go to West Brom on the back to a four-goal blitz of a Bournemouth team in decent nick. Albion’s preparation has been less conventional and this match could make or break their season. If it’s break, you’ll get 9/1 on Huddersfield Win & Both Teams to Score. And that could look like great value come 4.45 Saturday.

TV Treble

Watch and earn with these three this weekend…

  1. Leicester to beat Stoke
  2. Tottenham to beat Palace
  3. Man City to beat Arsenal (EFL Cup)        Treble pays 13/4 (4.25)

Hot Shots

Looking to score this weekend? Here’s a few goal scorer bets so you can buy her a Babycham…

  • Jamie Vardy is five from five for Leicester and Stoke have conceded more than any other team. 16/5 on offer for the First Goal.
  • Mo Salah had six in seven and five of them have been Liverpool’s last goal. Another Last Goal here pays 13/5.
  • Marcus Rashford is due one. He has gone nine PL matches without a goal and even if he doesn’t start, he is Man United’s most likely deadline breaker. 13/2 is decent value.

Offer 

Sign up with William Hill and stake £10 on the Premier League this weekend and you’ll get £30 in Free Bets. Get stuck in here…

Dit your bread in,

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 28

Thursday, February 22 2018

 

Just the nine Premier League matches this weekend, so I’ve chucked in the EFL Cup Final too. You’re welcome.

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too.  

Tuck in…

Saturday:
12.30pm Leicester City v Stoke City

Leicester’s season is over, really. They are comfortably trapped between the ceiling of seventh place and the trap door to relegation quicksand of 11th. But Stoke would swap places right now…
Just 2pts from the last eight away trips has left the Potters up to their pods in Bottom Three bother. Paul Lambert has tightened things up a bit - their two wins and a draw in the last four is their best form of the season (no, really!). But not enough to suggest getting anything out of this one.   
The Foxes have are pretty sly at home v teams outside the Top Four, with six wins from nine (D2 L1) – five of them To Nil. Make that seven and six.
Scorecast: 2-0 – 7/1.
Tap in: Home Win at 7/10.
Smart Money: Leicester & Under 3.5 Goals at 29/20.
 
3pm Bournemouth v Newcastle United
Scatty lot, these two…
Just when you thought Bournemouth’s total football (on a shoestring) had played them into a nice mid-table cruise-to-the-finish-line mode, they get their pants pulled down and their Huddersfield. (That’s a play on words, by the way. And a bloody good one. You’re welcome).  
Likewise, Newcastle’s outmuscling of Man United last time out forces you to wonder whether some players are picking their matches. So both sets of players are under a bit of character scrutiny here. But both are in the tidy form – just one defeat in eight for Toon and 15pts from a possible 24 for Bournemouth. I reckon both would take a point apiece.
Scorecast: 1-1 – 11/2.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 3/4.
   
3pm Brighton v Swansea City 
A proper six-pointer at the Amex. Brighton punch their weight at home, only losing to Top Four teams so far. But their aversion to scoring goals and keeping clean sheets means they draw too many matches. Well, perhaps it’s too soon to say categorically ‘too many’, but if they fancy Premier League status next season this needs to be a 3-pointer rather than another 1-pointer.
Swansea are a team on the up, but they love a draw. They are five from five on the road, including three FA Cup ties against lower league opposition. Suspect they would take another here though. And I reckon they’ll get one.
Scorecast: 1-1 – 5/1.
Tap in: Brighton Draw No Bet at 4/9.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2.
  
3pm Burnley v Southampton
Surely Dyche can’t keep a lid on it if Burnley don’t win this one…
Despite a run of 11 without a win, Sean’s gravelly post-match mood has been unfailingly positive. Perhaps he’s in on the dark sorcery that has kept Burnley in 7th spot even though their last win was 12 weeks ago. It puts them ten places above Southampton – and they’ve only lost once at home to a team below them. But you wouldn’t put the farm on them at the moment.
The Saints are unbeaten in five on the road, winning their last two (all comps). Okay, okay, they were both against West Brom but they have only surrendered maximum points once (to Liverpool) in their last eight. But I can’t keep backing draws with 2/1 available on offer for the Home Win… 
Scorecast: 1-0 – 6/1.
Tap in: Double Chance - Burnley or Draw at 1/2.
Long Shot: Burnley & Under 2.5 Goals at 4/1.

3pm Liverpool v West Ham
Before you throw the deeds to your house, the car and the kids over the bookmaker’s counter on the banker of the week Home Win, consider this…
West Ham are unbeaten in their last three trips to Anfield (W1 D2). But have shipped eight in the last two at home, so perhaps just the car and the kids - ‘when the fun stops, stop’ and all that.  
They are already talking new contracts and summer recruitment at West Ham, but Moyes’ rescue mission is not quite complete yet. Like everyone in the Bottom Half they are only two defeats away from the drop zone. And this looks like one of them. And could put Liverpool into second.  
Scorecast: 3-1 – 9/1.
Tap in: Home Win at 2/9.
Smart Money: Liverpool & BTTS at 17/10.

3pm West Brom v Huddersfield Town
Could be Taxi for Pardew this weekend. Or maybe not. Hear me out…
This is the first of six winnable matches for Albion. Leicester, Burnley, Swansea at home, Watford and Burnley away present an opportunity for 18pts which would almost certainly be enough to stay up. But there is no room for error, because they then face Man United, Liverpool and Tottenham in final month. And that lot won’t be mucking about on the run-in. So the meters running…
Huddersfield will have plans for the 3pts on offer too, of course. But a pitiful 5pts from 12 away trips – failing to score in ten of them – says Home Win to me. And the bookies agree.
Scorecast: 2-1 – 8/1.
Tap in: West Brom Draw No Bet at 4/11.
Long Shot: West Brom & BTTS at 4/1.

5.30pm Watford v Everton
Like Burnley, Watford have remained remarkably buoyant this season despite just two wins in 14. They were still clinging to the Top Half until losing to West Ham last time out (and currently sit 11th). Another couple of defeats could see them drop over the edge though, straight into the sticky relegation bog below.   
They will be encouraged by Everton’s away ‘form’ – just 1pt and two goals from the last four, with 11 going the other way. The recent five shipped at Arsenal will cause most concern, particularly as three came just 15 minutes into Big Sam’s experimental back-five defensive system. A worse set up than the one that cost him the England job.       
Scorecast: 1-2 – 10/1.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 17/5.

Sunday:
12pm Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur

Whisper it, but Palace are only a couple of bad results away from getting dragged right back into the dogfight they seemed to have crawled quietly away from. 
Just 2pts from the last four is as bad as it’s been since the Woy’s wescue mission started way back in October. And their cruel injury list is matched by a punishing schedule in the next month. After Spurs, it’s Man United, Chelsea and Liverpool to come in March.  
Tottenham have drawn their last five bizarrely, but the diversity of opposition and agenda make it a tricky form line to read – Rochdale, Juventus, Newport, Liverpool… Pfft!
Scorecast: 0-2 – 13/2.
Smart Money: Draw/ Tottenham HT/FT at 3/1.
Long Shot: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 9/2.

2.05pm Man United v Chelsea  
The technical area will be the place to be for this one…
Neither manager, nor their teams have looked particularly convincing recently. Or all season for that matter. But the numbers tell us that it’s the second best home team v the third best away team. Despite the fact that Chelsea’s only away wins in the last seven have been at Brighton and Huddersfield. But they enjoy locking horns with United, winning eight of the last 14 (D5 L1). Not many can match that.    
Of course, Jose will be pumped up even more than usual with Conte in the opposite corner. With the Sevilla trip and a day less to prepare, ready-made excuses. 
Scorecast: 1-1 - 5/1.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 14/5.

4.30pm Arsenal v Man City – EFL Cup Final
With the domestic treble – and possible quadruple – up in smoke, this might take on extra importance. Or maybe just the taste of defeat. Or maybe just the thought of getting their mitts on some silverware. But this looks City’s for the taking. The wide open space of Wembley will be right up De Bruyne and Silva’s alley. 
Arsenal have struggling away from the Emirates, barely matching the likes of Bournemouth, Newcastle and Southampton on the road. I know this isn’t an away match, but City will dominate the ball. And Arsenal’s plan B is more of a D-minus. 
Scorecast: 1-3 – 10/1.
Tap in: Man City to win at 4/7.
Smart Money: Man City & BTTS at 7/4. 

Back on Friday with a look at the weekend's Coupon Busters.

Don't touch that dial,

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - FA Cup 5th Rnd

Friday, February 16 2018


FA Cup week means a week of… ahem… warm weather training* in Spain for plenty of the Premier League.

(*And if you think these camps are just an excuse for drinking, golf and off-the-record contract/ bonus negotiations, you’re bang wrong. Not many play golf these days.)

From a punting point of view it hasn’t left us much to get our grubby mitts on. Six of the eight Fifth Round ties span the divisions and even Huddersfield V Man United fits the giant killing bill. 

The bookies have got it wrapped pretty tight, so we’re going to get any value without going out on a limb. But this is where my paper round money will be going this weekend…

Banker

Swansea to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 5/4 – Wednesday are only this 16th best team in the Championship at home. (FA Cup aside) they’ve only won two of the last 16 and have no bidness being the Sixth Round. The Swans meanwhile are fairly flying. This will be ten unbeaten. Get on.   

Long Shot

And it is a long shot, so don’t put the kids on it. But you’ll get a smidgeon better than 10/1 backing all the giants to avoid a killing this weekend. Plus, if it still alive come Monday night it will add a bit of spice to the Wigan v Man City match.

  1. Leicester City to beat Sheffield United
  2. Chelsea to beat Hull City
  3. Swansea City to beat Sheffield Wednesday
  4. Brighton to beat Coventry City
  5. Man United to beat Huddersfield Town
  6. Tottenham to beat Rochdale
  7. Man City to beat Wigan 


TV Treble

You might not know this, but in various bets on these pages I have recommended Chelsea to keep a clean sheet three times. And three times have got it wrong (yes Watford, Newcastle and Huddersfield. I’m looking at you…). 

But eight out of nine wins To Nil v the bottom seven in the PL is urging me to go in again v Hull. Who are the third worst away scorers in the Championship. I’m adding Tottenham and Man United - who will have had a week of Jose drills after a couple of shockers recently - in a TV Treble that pays 15/2.   

  1. Chelsea Win to Nil
  2. Tottenham Win to Nil
  3. Man United Win to Nil

Have a Bad one,

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 27

Tuesday, February 13 2018

 

That Matt Nesbitt, he’s just like Man United/ Arsenal/ Bournemouth [choose one] and to a lesser extent Everton/ Burnley/ Watford (choose another].

You just start thinking you can rely on him and he pulls a Phil Jones on you…

It was a bad weekend, Badmen. With a few bad calls and a bit of bad luck. 

I’ll take responsibility for swerving the Tottenham and Liverpool Wins, in favour of the better value Both Teams to Score picks. Greedy. A Chinese burn has been administered. 

But I stand by West Brom to score at Chelsea (they should’ve). And our cause wasn’t helped by Sturridge’s brittle hamstring pinging moments into the match. 

And I’d back the same Bournemouth and Man United bets if they played the same match again tomorrow. 

But instead we’ve got a much more glamourous midweek to tackle, which I’ll get onto in a minute…

You’re looking smart…

Of course, you might’ve collected this weekend. And I sincerely hope you did. 

Because every Badman bets differently. You might just follow Tap-ins, or Smart Bets, or not get out of bed for less than a Long Shot. You might pick and choose.

Last week everyone was snorting their Sherbert Dib-Dabs off the bookies tits. The two previous weeks it was the Tap-in merchants who were hosing rentable ladies in Babycham.   

But overall it is the Smart Bettors who have had the most cake rubbed in their backs. We’re 5pts in front since we tweaked the format, so if you’re wavering on which category fits best – it’s the Smart move.

And here’s another…

An Old Lady that is worth a punt…

Tottenham tackle Juventus tonight in the Champions League. And while – quite rightly – all the talk is about Harry Kane; how great he is, how many zillion pounds he is worth and how he is DEFINITELY going to win the World Cup for England… (well, perhaps not yet. But you wait until the summer).

There are a couple of things that you might not – and definitely should – be aware of about Tottenham’s opponents, Juventus.

NOTE: I am writing this ahead of the first leg, so putting it out there – like a Huddersfield substitute. But whatever happens in Turin, I think this is valid. Where was I? Oh yeah…

Juventus and Napoli are pissing Serie A. Juve are currently playing second fiddle, a point off the top but 14pts ahead of third place. Which is relative, I know. But get this…

Juventus have conceded…ahem… once in their last 15 matches. Once. In 15

They’ve also won their last ten and only tasted defeat once in 22 (18 D3 L1). And let’s not forget they have reached two of the last three finals, losing to Real Madrid last season (who weren’t bad) and Barcelona in 2015 (also reasonable). 

However, Juventus are currently trading at 16/1 to win the Champions League. And that, Badmen, is value. 

It’s three times the price of Barca and Bayern (5/1), but I’d call it closer to Even Money if they were going head-to-head with either team over two legs. They’ve got more pedigree than Man City (too short at 10/3) and PSG (also 5/1), who look capable of taking care of Real (8s).  

Still not feeling it? Okay, one last point…

Juventus are currently priced the same as Liverpool and Man United to lift the trophy. Worth a punt in my view.  

Ciao for now.

Matt Nesbitt

UPDATE: Wednesday 14th...

Thought I'd take a welcome break from opening Valentine's cards to update on Juventus v Spurs.

Juve's price went down to single figures on Betfair at 2-0 up. But is now as big as 28/1 in places. If they can get past Tottenham, I'd still fancy them to go to the last four - and then you'd have a very tradable price. 

 


 

Coupon Busters - Game Week 27

Friday, February 9 2018

 

Oi oi, Badmen. I found nearly a five in loose change down the back of the settee while I was doing the housework, so I thought I’d try to turn it into £50.

Here’s how…

Match Results

  1. Tottenham Win & BTTS
  2. Liverpool Win & BTTS            £1 Double returns £10.50

Both Teams to Score

  1. Tottenham v Arsenal
  2. West Ham v Watford             £1 Double returns £2.50
  3. Everton v Palace                   £1 Treble returns £5
  4. Southampton v Liverpool       £1 Four-fold returns £8

Draws

  1. Everton v Palace
  2. Stoke v Brighton
  3. Swansea v Burnley
  4. West Ham v Watford            £1.10p Yankee returns £26.85 (any 2 pays £4.50).


*In this context a Yankee is not a racist, pussy-grabbing con man with a Stars and Stripes on his lapel and an unruly shrub of Cheetos Shredded Wheat on his head. It is 11 bets in one – six Doubles, four Trebles and a Four-fold. A 10p Yankee bet costs £1.10p – 11 x 10p bets = £1.10p.

Cha cha chang chang,

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 27

Thursday, February 8 2018

 

The weekend has rolled around again. Never fails, does it.

With it comes ten Premier League puzzles. All tricky. Some with a couple of pieces missing. But let’s have a go, shall we…

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too.  

Saturday:
Tottenham v Arsenal

Have you torn up your form book? And thrown it out of the window? It’s okay, I don’t mind sharing…
Tottenham have revved up for the derby swatting aside Everton and Man United at home and wrestling an equally impressive point out of Liverpool. My biggest worry is the early kick off as Spurs tend to start slowly.
Arsenal have been shocking on the road all season. Like, just a point better than Newcastle bad. But a goal (Aubameyang) and three assists (Mkhitaryan) from the new boys in their first outing will have them pumped. The Gunners’ last eight matches have seen goals at both ends. So that’s the place to start…  
Scorecast: 2-1 - 15/2.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/9.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & BTTS at 11/5.

Everton v Crystal Palace
Not so much of the ‘Saviour Sam’ being banded about Allardyce these days. He’s back to just being Big.
That’s what one win in nine matches does for you, I s’pose. But they punch their weight at home, winning seven of their eight v teams outside the Top Seven. 
Palace fall into that category, of course. But have some pretty consistent away stats themselves v the Premier Leagues also rans: just one defeat from seven. Only one win too, but after going eight away games without a goal, they’ve hit eight in five and look good for at least another at Goodison. 
Scorecast: 1-1 - 5/1. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at Evens. 
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 7/2.

Stoke City v Brighton
It's early yet, but it looks like back to the bad old days for Stoke. They have been outplayed in Paul Lambert’s first four games in charge, yielding just seven corners, three goals and 4pts. 
The upside is, things have gone well against Bottom Third teams – four wins from five at home. A fifth from six puts them level with Saturday’s visitors.
Brighton are another team relying on their form against Bottom Third – actually, they’ve taken points off all but one of the Bottom Half so far.  All 9pts on the road have come from teams above Stoke, so they won’t want to walk away from this six-pointer with nothing.  
Scorecast: 1-1 - 5/1.
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 4/7.
Long Shot: Draw/ Stoke HT/FT is value at 19/5.

Swansea City v Burnley
Swansea have taken flight in recent weeks and are currently eight unbeaten, winning the last four at home. Even taking lower division clubs out of the picture, wins over Liverpool and Arsenal are not to be quacked at. (Swans quack, right?) But those two wins make up 6pts of the 8pts in total taken from ten matches v the Top Eight. So let’s not count our… erm… signets before they hatch.
Burnley haven’t won since early December. But have only lost once on the road and their level of performance hasn’t dropped far below their early season form. Only the Top Five have been better on the road too, so I can’t see them leaving empty handed.  There might even be a bit of value in the Away Win…
Scorecast: 1-1 – 5/1.
Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at 6/5. 
Long Shot: Burnley Win & BTTS at 7/1.

West Ham v Watford
These two are among, ooh…perhaps 11 teams that are a couple of wins away from the warm blanket of mid-table. But likewise just two defeats from shitty, wet quicksand of the relegation zone. 
West Ham are one of the few you’d think have too much to go down. But having too much ‘at stake’ isn’t quite the same. Defeat in the six-pointer at Brighton last week was their first in seven but they’ve only beaten one team outside the Bottom Four. 
Watford probably cashed in the jackpot of a Chelsea side in disarray on Monday, but it could be a turning point in getting their wheels back in the slots after a chaotic couple of months. They need something here too, because their next five away trips take in four of the Top Six. And then they add up the points.  
Scorecast: 2-2 – 12/1.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 8/11.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 13/4. 

Man City v Leicester City
Wonder if Riyad Mahrez will turn up for this one? Shame really, ‘cos Leicester could do with him. That is, the one that scored six in his last 13 matches. Not the one that sulked through the previous 15 (three goals) because he didn’t get a transfer in the summer. He would only be keeping things warm for a fully fit Sane, Sterling, Jesus et al anyway. 
Only Everton have denied City maximum points so far and the upcoming Champions League appointment (in Basel) shouldn’t be weighing too heavily on anyone’s mind. So there’s no real case to be made for anything but a Home Win. 
It’s a free hit for Leicester, with three winnable PL matches to follow. So the only question is can they score? 
Scorecast: Yes. 3-1 – 9/1. 
Tap in: Man City (-1) Match Handicap at 4/7.
Smart Money: Man City Win & BTTS at 8/5.

Sunday:
Huddersfield Town v Bournemouth

Watching Huddersfield roll over to first Liverpool and then Man United could be written off as savvy management of expectation. If it wasn’t for the three batterings to much more modest opposition immediately previous, that is. And the three before that yielded just 3pts. So - I’m afraid – from here it looks like they should get comfortable in the Bottom Three. 
Bournemouth have rarely been in fine fettle in their Premier League tenure. Unbeaten in seven, winning home and away and the late turnaround against a stubborn Stoke last week stunk of a team full of beans.  If there’s an Away Win this weekend, it’ll be here.
Scorecast: 1-3 – 22/1.
Tap In: Bournemouth Draw No Bet at 4/6.
Smart Money: Bournemouth Win & BTTS at 17/4.

Newcastle United v Man United
Ah, what was I saying about Away Wins…?
Say what you like about Mourinho and his bus parking skills, but his beep beep beep beep is music to punter’s ears. The defeat at Tottenham interrupted a run on seven clean sheets and six Wins To Nil. You know what you’re getting with Jose. Outside the Top Five, United have taken 54pts from a possible 63pts and are starting to look as comfortable in ‘Park’ as they are in City’s slipstream. 
And Rafa is almost as reliable, fact. Just 2pts from 12 matches v Top Half teams might seem a bit shit, but as long as it is matched with enough from the Bottom Half it simply means they punch their weight. And so far, 23pts from 14 matches is just about on track. 15 more required. But none here.
Scorecast: 0-2 – 13/2.
Tap in: Man United to Win at 4/6.
Smart Money: Man United Win To Nil at 8/5.
Long Shot: Man United Win, BTTS: NO, Over 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 8/1 (Coral #YourCall)

Southampton v Liverpool
These are undoubtedly two of the Premier League’s scattiest teams. It’s perhaps not surprising with the amount of shared DNA over recent seasons. But that doesn’t make it any easier to predict.
Southampton have plenty of ability in their ranks, but ‘shop window players do have a habit of picking their matches. But this is likely to be on the list. One clean sheet in 18 suggests the Saints will have to outscore Liverpool though.
Which will suit Klopp’s lot down to the ground. Their only clean sheets in the last ten have come against (then) Bottom Two teams. And in a goal-fest you can’t go against the visitors.
Scorecast: 1-2 – 8/1.
Tap In: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.
Smart Money: Liverpool & BTTS at 23/10.

Monday:
Chelsea v West Brom

Hmm, if you fancy an Away Win place it in a double with Conte to be sacked the following morning. 
The double bubble of defeats to Bournemouth and Watford made this as tough a week as poor Antonio has faced at Chelsea. And he has the potential banana skin of Hull at home to negotiate next week. Oh and then Barcelona, Man United and Man City. So, er, let’s file this one under: Must Win.
West Brom might argue that slipping to bottom of the table made their week worse, but it’s all relative. Pardew will be aware of a run of six winnable matches after this one, but with 20-odd points required from 12 games he can’t afford to be fussy. So they will have a go here. But even at 7/1, I can’t make a case.
Scorecast: 2-1 – 15/2.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & BTTS at 11/5. 
Long Short: Daniel Sturridge to Score at Anytime at 7/2.

Play nice.

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 26

Tuesday, February 6 2018

 

Betting smart is the way forward…

But we knew that. A decent set of results at the weekend underlined precisely where the value is when it comes to tackle the weekend coupons. Five out of six Tap-ins generated a svelte profit of just 1.3pts, whereas five out of seven Smart Bets stuffed 10.62pts down our cleavage. 

That’s the equivalent of an 11/8 winner v 10/1 winner in hard currency. No contest. Like Watford v Chelsea…

That’s why they call it the blues…

Chelsea have announced that Antonio Conte will ‘not be sacked in the wake of the defeat at Watford’. Of course, all that means is he will be picking the team against West Brom next Monday. And he needs to get it right. Because if he manages to dodge that bullet, there are four more piss-dipped, barbwire-wrapped, ‘A.C.’ engraved ones on the way. 

First up, it's Hull at home in the FA Cup. A match that’s unwinnable in the eyes of the fans, the board and the football world in general. Plus, if it has gone wonky in the dressing and the players want him gone, this is the match they can do it.

Next up it’s Barcelona at the Bridge. Then consecutive trips to Man United and City. Ouch.  

If Antonio makes it to April without seeing the inside of a Russian salt-mine he will have done well.

You’re in safe hands…

Now, I’m not complaining – I enjoy my work. Sitting on my skinny white arse writing about football and betting is all I’m really qualified – or prepared – to do. But there are downsides. Working weekends is one, not really getting a break between August and May is another.

Which means you miss out on valuable family time…

 

 

Ha Ha ZING! Got ya! 

I'm joking, of course – I like to spend all (ALL, I say – every last bit) of my spare time in the company of dead-eyed bar staff and taxi drivers. 

But my point is, I feel a responsibility to provide a level of service to my employers and subscribers that I couldn’t possibly pass on to anyone else. Or ask anyone to cover me, not even for one weekend.

I am, however, talking out of my arse. Our own Ben Dinnery backed Watford to beat Chelsea. At 5/1! While I said Away Win and cost everyone money, so it was Ben toking on a fat cigar rolled on the thighs of a virgin this weekend. Probably.

So if I do happen to go AWOL, you’ll be in safe hands Badmen. 

Head for the Hills…

Oh and while I’m on, I’ve had a few of you asking where is the best bookie to place your bets. The truth is, all the big hitters are much of a muchness when it comes to choice of bets, speed of pricing up and value. But for me William Hill are consistently the best at all three and provide good offers.

Plus, they are offering £30 in Free Bets if you stake £10 at the mo.  Dip your bread in…

Later skaters,

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 26

Friday, February 2 2018


Well thank God that’s over.

Not Transfer Deadline Day, I fucking love it – but having midweek fixtures happening in and around it didn’t only upset Chelsea’s miserable old Conte. I’m blaming a shocking set of result on it too. 

Hopefully I won’t need an excuse for the weekend…

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too. 

Sing it, fellas…

Saturday:
Burnley v Man City

There are only five places but 33pts between these two. And, of course, a million miles. And a zillion pounds.
How Burnley have managed to stay in 7th place despite eight matches without a win - and just one lonely point from the last four, by the way – says more about the Premier League than it does Burnley. But it can’t go on forever.
It will persist at least another 90 minutes though, I suspect. City are on a dodgy run themselves – just one point from their last two away matches. I doubt Pep is sweating, but they will have to work for the win at Burnley. 
Tap in: Burnley (+3) Match Handicap at 4/11.
Scorecast: A steady 0-2 – 11/2.
 
Bournemouth v Stoke City
After a 3-0 win at Chelsea and beating Arsenal in their last home match, this should be a gimme. If only it was that simple. For one, Stoke are under new stewardship and look a different proposition already. Two clean sheets and 4pts against Huddersfield and Watford is nowt to write home about, but a step in the right directions. Getting something at Bournemouth will be another.
Eddie Howe’s liking for attractive football means they ship far too many goals – just two clean sheets at home – but they have been pretty efficient v the Bottom Half. Only two defeats from 12 is solid, but two wins from five at home needs to improve. Starting here.
Smart Money: Bournemouth Win & Both Teams to Score at 14/5.
Scorecast:  A tight 2-1 – 15/2. 

Brighton v West Ham
The Seagulls are one of the most consistent teams in the division, pretty much exactly punching their weight. They’ve taken points from every home match v teams outside the Top Six and only lost twice on the road to Bottom Half teams. Unfortunately for them, West Ham look to have the measure of Bottom Six teams this season, winning five (and drawing one) of their eight matches. 
One of their two defeats was a 0-3 drubbing by Brighton. A bit out of character for both.  
So, factoring all of that in and taking away the number you first though of… I can’t see a winner. Oh and they have played out six draws in their last nine between them.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2.
Scorecast: Looks like a 1-1 – 5/1

Leicester City v Swansea City
After another multi-million pound move has been snatched from out of his wallet, the green-eyed Mahrez might be due for a spell as the incredible sulk again. Shame because Claude had got him looking like… well, a Man City player again. Until their Deadline Day stumble, Leicester were unbeaten in six with just one goal conceded. A home match against the division’s ugly ducklings should be just the tonic…
But Swansea will have other ideas after consecutive wins over Liverpool and Arsenal. They are unbeaten in four on the road too (all comps) and will be boosted by the return of prodigal duckling Andre Ayew. Could be a bit of value on offer here.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at Evens.
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 4/1.
Scorecast: Has the look of a 2-2 – 16/1.

Man United v Huddersfield Town
Two teams that surrendered meekly in their last outing. The life drained out of United alarmingly quickly once Corporal Jones had lashed in Tottenham’s second. Don’t panic, don’t panic – we’re back at home next. And very effective they have been too, dropping just 4pts all season – both in Christmas week. Anything less than three decisive points here and all of a sudden Top Four starts to look like a scramble. 
Huddersfield rolled over at home to Liverpool as if they were saving themselves for something. But I don’t suppose it was United, even though they have beaten them once already. Twice would be silly.  
Tap in: Home Win at 1/7.
Smart Money: Man United Win to Nil at 4/7.
Long Shot: Correct Score 4-0 – 15/2.
Scorecast: Or maybe 3-0 – 5/1.

West Brom v Southampton
Funny week for the Baggies. They hit their best form of the season – three wins from four (all comps) – win away at Liverpool and help snatch one of their players as they left. But end the week at the Bottom of the Premier League. Things look better for shiz, but they need to get into Swansea’s slipstream if they are going to play their way out of trouble. Their home form hasn’t been the problem – they’ve only lost three times, all to Top Four teams. Although seven of the other nine matches ended level. So with Southampton sitting three points north as things stand, this qualifies as a must win.
Of course, the Saints will be thinking much the same thing. They are 12 without a win but draws with Arsenal, Spurs and Man United in that run suggests they are guilty of picking their games. Both teams love a draw but I have a feeling West Brom will edge it.
Tap in: West Brom Draw No Bet at 7/10.
Long Shot: West Brom & Both Teams to Score at 9/2.
Scorecast: A tight 2-1 – 9/1.

Arsenal v Everton
Real Madrid have BBC, Barcelona had MSN and now Arsenal have a frontline of Lacazette, Mkhitaryan, Aubameyang and Ozil and they can boast about LMAO.
They are still too Jekyll and Hyde though. Second only to Man City at home this season, but you can’t help but have doubts about their soft centre. Especially when tough nuts like Everton are in town. They will of course bring Theo Walcott with them, fresh from his match winning brace in midweek. Only two teams have been worse on the road and ten matches v Top Seven teams has yielded just 3pts so far. 
The bookies have loaded into the home win and I’m not going to back against it. But can’t help thinking this will be an ugly one for the home team. So let’s do this…   
Tap In: Arsenal Win at 3/10.
Smart Money: Arsenal Win & Both Teams to Score at 2/1.
Scorecast: A hard fought 2-1.

Sunday:
Crystal Palace v Newcastle United

Only a point separates the teams, but the mood at Palace will be much the better. Only Arsenal have beaten them in the last nine matches and 7pts from their last four at home has them rubbing form shoulders with the likes of Chelsea and Man United. And you’d back them to see off Newcastle.
But hold on… The Geordies’ away form is only a point worse than Man City’s over the last four, because they too have rallied since Christmas. The truth is, they punch their weight – 22pts from 12 matches in the Bottom Eight v 2pts from 13 matches against teams above. Palace are right on the cusp, but will have a little too much for Toon. 
Tap in: Palace Draw No bet at 4/9.
Long Shot: Palace Win & Both Teams to Score at 7/2.
Scorecast: I’m thinking 2-1 – 8/1.

Liverpool v Tottenham 
We all know about Tottenham’s record away to Top Four teams – just four wins in their last 96 attempts. But it wasn’t so long ago that being 2-0 up against Man United at half-time meant they were in for a good hiding. This Spurs team are made of sterner stuff and have already stuck four past Liverpool this season. If they can score first I can’t see them beaten.
Liverpool seem to be over the wobble that saw them beaten by the PL’s bottom two teams in a week. But, like Spurs, sometimes meet their match when trading blows with the big boys. Just one win from five (D2 L2) v the Top Five so far and a draw will keep their noses in front for now. 
Tap In: Both Teams to Score at 1/2.
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4.
Long Shot: Harry Kane Last Goal at 4/1.
Scorecast: An entertaining 1-1 – 13/2.

Monday:
Watford v Chelsea

Hmm, it’s been a funny old season for Watford. Their 15pts from the first eight matches seems a very long time ago. Since then the wheels have come off, although they seem to have got lodged in mid-table – which is no mean feat after just one win in 12. That bubble is starting to fray though – defeat here could have them in the Bottom Three. It’s too early to get a steer on the new man in charge, but their clean sheet at Stoke was their first November.
Chelsea have kicked the Hornets’ nest with a 4-2 win already this term, but are in an odd mood so far in 2018. Five draws, two wins and two defeats suggest something is wrong but only Man City have been better on the road. And while I’m not as bullish as the bookies, you can’t really back against them.  
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Both Teams to Score at 5/2.
Scorecast: Just enough 1-2 – 7/1.
 

Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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