Premier League Preview - Game Week 25: Tuesday

Monday, January 29 2018

 

Aah, the magic of the Cup…

Nothing captures the spirit of the world’s greatest Cup competition more than the beaming smile of Mauricio Pochettino as he left the pitch at Newport County. His excitement at the prospect of cramming in another frantic game of head-tennis in between Liverpool and Arsenal fixture and just a week before Juventus arrive in the Champions League, was clear for all to see.

And what about Leroy Sane’s little face lighting up at the thought of missing City’s trip to Basel and the EFL Cup Final, thanks to Joe Bennett’s giant-killing calf-high tackle…

It’s not all glamour though.

We slipped on a few banana skins – at Liverpool, Huddersfield and Newport; but hit a couple of bulls-eyes elsewhere – a 10/3 at Cardiff, 6 and 7/1s at Boro; and were about 10 seconds away from another 7pt profit at Yeovil.

Here’s a breakdown to help guide your preference moving forward:

Tap Ins

4 out of 7

-1.67pts

Smart Bets

2 out of 6

0.15pts

Long Shots

2 out of 4

7.33pts

Scorecasts

1 out of 7

1.0pt

 

Back on Premier League business, we’ve got a full coupon spread over two nights. Three Tuesday, seven Wednesday.

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally.

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value from the match. And any Long Shots are decent priced (usually 3/1 or bigger) punts that have some statistical merit.

Scorecasts are priced up too.

Have it.

Tuesday: 
Swansea v Arsenal

Swansea might’ve turned a bit of a corner with their win over Liverpool. If not, they are certainly hanging around it with a bit of intent. They are unbeaten in five since Carlos got stuck into them. Admittedly, three of those results came against lower division teams in Cups – although Wolves are technically only one place below in the football pyramid – but it’s enough to suggest Arsenal won’t get things all their own way.
The Gunners are shocking away from home.  We know they can play and might benefit from the Dirty Sanchez business being over with, but one win in seven on the road v Bottom Half teams makes the 1/2 Away Win appeal about as much as a shitty stick. 
Tricky one to dredge a profit from, this one.  So we’ll play the value.
Tap in: Swansea (+2) Match Handicap at 6/10
Smart Money: 
Long Shot: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 9/2
Scorecast: Let’s go 1-1 at 7/1

West Ham v Crystal Palace
Two teams in recovery – not victims, survivors – operating in much the same ball park in terms of ambition, scale and current form. A classic six-pointer that both managers would probably settle as a one-pointer, but would see a no-pointer as points dropped.  
West Ham go into the match with a cruel injury list, while Palace have had a nice ten days to prep. The fixture at Selhurst Park ended 2-2 and West Ham’s last six have had goals at both ends, so that’s the way forward here. And coupled with the generous looking Match Result pricing, there is plenty of value to go after if you fancy a big priced punt. With West Ham’s injury tipping the scales in Palace’s favour.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 17/20
Smart Money: 
Long Shot: Palace Win & BTTS at 17/4
Scorecast: Can’t split them 1-1 – 5/1

Huddersfield Town v Liverpool
This looks an ugly fixture for Liverpool after successive stumbles at Swansea and at home to West Brom (in the FA Cup). But even a misfiring (like v Swansea) and defensively shambolic (like v Albion) should probably have enough to get past Huddersfield. Just 4pts from eight matches v Top Seven teams – and 22 goals shipped – suggests that even a top end performance might fall short. They tend to score in singles too – averaging exactly one goal at home.
Liverpool can only boast two away clean sheets, but they usually pack two or more on away trips. Only City have scored more on the road. They need this, so I’m backing business a bit more like usual.
Tap in: Liverpool to Win at 1/3
Smart Money: Liverpool to Win & BTTS – 11/4 (price boost from 9/4 at Coral)
Long Shot: Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: YES, Over 9.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 11/2 (#YourCall Coral)
Scorecast: Back in the saddle 1-3 – 10/1

Same time tomorrow?

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

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World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

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Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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