TV Guide - Scouse and Manc Derbies

Saturday, December 9 2017

 

Only landed one of four bets from last weekend’s Match Profiles, but it was a satisfying one. Getting a 6/4 return from a Man City home win is like getting four cans of ‘spesh for the price of a bottle of White Lightning.

Let’s have a glug on Super Strength Sunday…

Liverpool v Everton. 2.15 on Sky

There are those who insist on tearing up the formbook when it comes to derbies. Others throw it out the window. Some do both. Then sweep up the pieces and burn them. And bury the charred remains.
I don’t. And here’s why…

  • Everton haven’t won a Merseyside derby since 2011. 12 matches ago. 
  • Liverpool have won six and five have been drawn of the last 11.
  • Liverpool have won seven and drawn one of their matches v teams outside the Top Eight (Everton are currently 10th).
  • Liverpool have scored 38 goals in their last 12 matches. Three per match. 

The formbook told me all that. Never left the house. No black stuff on fingers. 

It will also tell you that Everton have won three on the spin, scoring nine and conceding zip. But I’ll add (in crayon over the top) that West Ham, Huddersfield and Ap Limassol are not a realistic barometer to judge this match. It’s a slamdunk, Badmen.   

The tricky bit is finding value (‘cos those pesky Bookies’ don’t tear up their formbooks). 

We can strike a line through almost all the Home Win options (see below) based on price. But I’ve included a decent punt on Wazza, that will add a bit of enjoyment to watching the match if nothing else.

Tap Ins

  • Home Win at 2/1
  • Liverpool Win to Nil at 6/4
  • Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals at 8/13 
  • Wayne Rooney to have 1+ Shot on Target at 4/5 (Coral #YourCall) 

Big Sam will set Everton up not to get beaten and if they do it well, they could get to half-time level. At a slither less than 3/1 it is juuuust about worth a punt (as we’re struggling for anything else).

Expect Everton to be physical, but Liverpool don’t pick up bookings – and tear-ups are a thing of the past. So we can go low on Cards. Corners are tricky, but I’m banking low based on a tight first hour, a lack of qualify possession for Everton and Liverpool not chasing the game.  

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Liverpool in the HT/ FT at 29/10
  • Liverpool Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 10/3 (Coral #YourCall)
  • Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 7/1 (Coral #YourCall)

And now the big one…

Man United v Man City. 4.30pm on Sky.

This is a much trickier nut to crack. Form only tells us so much – United are perfect at home, City perfect away. 

United’s mugging of Arsenal last weekend will have them pumped up, but conceding 75% possession and 16 shots on target won’t produce 3-1 wins very often. City’s first loss of the season in midweek shouldn’t ruffle them too much but they have started to concede a few goals (four in four), which could be an indication they are slowing up a tad.

But I think the context of the game is the key here. City’s eight point lead at the top means a draw would do very nicely thank you. United need to win. 

This doesn’t mean Jose will go gung-ho. Hell no. But he will release the handbrake on the bus in the last 20 minutes or so, if United haven’t been passed to death by then.

(And by the way, this is the only time in your or my lifetime that you will get 9/4 for a Man United Home Win. I’m a little bit tempted purely based on that fact). 

Play this one three times and you could get three different results.

I can't see a lot of goals, but there's no real value in going low. But I’m not going to get drawn into a prediction – other than I don’t expect it to be a classic. It would just be a guess.

Instead I’m going to speculate on value and add a bit of flavour to the spectacle with a couple of long range efforts…   

Tap Ins

  • Under 3.5 Goals at 4/11
  • First Half Result: Draw at 11/10

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Draw in the Half-time/ Full-time at 17/4
  • Draw/ Man United at 6/1

Hey. Phew. Rock n roll.

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 16

Friday, December 8 2017

 

A tidy three from six in last week’s Coupon Busters, tucking a sweaty 6pts profit in our top pockets. 

But before you spend it all on Spice, let’s see if we can reinvest a bit of it pulling the bookies’ pants down again this weekend. 

Eyes down…

Match Results

  1. Liverpool to beat Everton
  2. Arsenal to beat Southampton
  3. Tottenham to beat Stoke
  4. Chelsea to beat West Ham             £1 Fourfold returns £4.75

 

  1. Brighton to beat Huddersfield
  2. West Brom to beat Swansea
  3. Palace to beat Bournemouth         £2 Trixie returns £19.50 (any two returns £3)

                    
I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to place the Fourfold as two Doubles. All have got a slightly streaky element about them, whether it’s the local derby factor or the moodiness of the North London pair at the mo. But all should win. 

I’ve also dropped a little Trixie into the mixie. Which for the uncircumcised is actually four bets in one – three Doubles and a Treble. Your stake is multiplied by four, so this is a 50p bet x 4 = £2 total stake.

They are three big value wins that could all land with a stiff tailwind. But it’s a punt. So rather taking on the Treble, or picking out a Double I thought we’d make our underpants fireproof with a Trixie. Any two gives us a return. 

Draws

  1. Burnley v Watford 
  2. Newcastle v Leicester 
  3. Man United v Man City             £2 Trixie returns £32.96 (any two returns £5)
  4. Huddersfield v Brighton           £1.10 Yankee returns £25.68 (any three returns £4.67)

And for these fab four draws I’ve turned it up to 11. A Yankee is 11 bets in one – six Doubles, four Trebles and a Fourfold. A 10p bet x 11 = £1.10 total stake. Any two gets out money back, three and we’re laughing. All four and we’re exposing our breasts.  

Both Teams to Score

  1. Tottenham v Stoke
  2. Newcastle v Leicester                    £1 returns £3.52
  3. Burnley v Watford                          £1 returns £6.90
  4. Palace v Bournemouth                  £1 returns £13.13

         
Here I really like the Double. Compelling stats bullied me into the Treble. And my guts made me add the Fourfold. I’ve kept the £1 marker, but wouldn’t call you any rude names if you scaled your stakes down relative to the odds. 

Oh, and don’t forget Super Dooper Sunday. In the red corners, Liverpool and Man United. In the blue corners, Everton and Man City.

My Match Profiles will help turn it all to green. 

On site noonish on Saturday. 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 16

Thursday, December 7 2017

 

I'll be performing a full cavity search on the Scouse and Manc derbies in this week's Match Profiles - look out for the post on Saturday morning. But here's a quick frisk of the rest of the weekend coupon... 

Tap-ins are, well, exactly that. Short prices so keep them for topping up your Doubles, Trebles and Accas. 

The Smart Money bets guide you to pickpocketing a bit of value from the Bookies.

And the Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky's Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots.

Colossus will give you £10 in free bets if you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Saturday:
West Ham v Chelsea
Getting to within seven minutes of an unlikely point at Man City will have the Hammers pumped up, but I suspect they will feel the pressure at home. Especially when the visitors have only dropped four points on the road all season.
Tap in: Chelsea Win but too short at 1/2.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals is much more like it at 14/5.
Scorecast:  0-1 will do for the Blues.

Burnley v Watford
By now Burnley will expect points from a match like this, but have played all the Bottom Six now and need to start scoring more than one at a time. Watford probably deserved more than one point from their last two v Spurs and Man United. And do their best work on the road.  
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 6/10, but…
Smart Money: ...Both Teams to Score is better at Evens. 
Scorecast: Not much between these two - 1-1.

Crystal Palace v Bournemouth
Only one defeat in six is progress for Palace, but just seven points won suggests it’s slow. Another two goals here – like in their previous four home matches, should take the points. Bournemouth have Man United, City and Liverpool after this so must leave with something.
Tap in: First Half Under 1.5 Goals at 1/3 – but just for Multiples.
Smart Money:  Draw/ Palace is the best value home win option at 15/4.
Scorecast: Fancy Palace to nick it 2-1.

Huddersfield v Brighton
The top flite looks to have caught up with both of these in the last month or so. Huddersfield look on the verge of a tailspin to me and don’t look capable of more than a goal a game at home. Brighton are tidy v teams below them, taking 14 points from a possible 21 so far.
Tap in: Brighton Draw No Bet at Evens.
Smart Money: Brighton & Under 3.5 Goals is value at 12/5.
Scorecast:  Brighton in slightly better fettle. 0-1 

Swansea v West Brom
Not sure which is worse – six defeats in seven, one goal in five, or three home blanks in a row. Either way, Swansea are in the shit. Three decent West Brom showings has yielded just three points. One half decent one here will take three.  
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals is short at 4/9 but looks nailed on.
Smart Money: 12/5 for West Brom & Under 3.5 Goals appeals.
Scorecast: It won’t be pretty. 0-1.

Tottenham v Stoke City
Spurs can put the Champions League hoopla away until February and get back on track here. They are efficient against Bottom Half teams (W8 D2) but the absence of Davinson Sanchez will encourage Stoke. The Potters have only failed to score once on the road this season. Might need a couple here though.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 10/11
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Both teams to Score is easily the best home win option at 9/5.
Scorecast: Fragile Spurs to come out firing. 3-1.

Newcastle United v Leicester City
Just one point from five matches has Newcastle teetering on the brink of their next crisis. Firing three blanks in their five home matches against teams above them is part of their problem.  Keeping out a rejuvenated Vardy and Mahrez will be another. Leicester are unbeaten in five on the road.  
Tap in: Leicester Draw No Bet at Evens.
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4.  
Scorecast: A desmond - 2-2.

Sunday:
Southampton v Arsenal
Arsenal’s away form barely puts them into the Top Half of the table. But Southampton seem to have decided on they can and can’t beat, which doesn’t include Top Eight teams – just one goal to show from five matches so far, so fancy Arsenal to pass them to death.
Tap in: Arsenal First Team to Score 7/10.
Smart Money: Arsenal & Under 3.5 Goals is tidy at 21/5.
Scorecast: Steady as she goes 0-2.

Liverpool v Everton 
I hope Big Sam has enjoyed the ego massage of home wins against West Ham and Huddersfield, because it’s almost over. And there will be no happy ending at Anfield. Unless he’s one of those types that like a good hiding. In a German accent.  Now, where was I? Oh yeah, Liverpool win.
Tap in: Home  Win – but not at 2/7, thank you very much.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win to Nil is short at 6/5.  So let’s have a punt on Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Over 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booing Points at 15/2 (via Coral’s #YourCall) 
Scorecast: Liverpool like a 3-0. 

Man United v Man City
Ooh, now then. A title decider in December! Well, only if City win it. Don’t suppose City’s first defeat of the campaign midweek will bother them, but they have been conceding a few goals lately (five in four games). United will need at least one to get anything. And another worldie or two from David De Gea, I suspect.
Tap in: Over 10.5 cliches during Sky’s coverage.
Smart Money: The Draw & Under 2.5 Goals is value at 7/2.
Scorecast: A third 0-0 in five meetings.

My Coupon Busters should be along about noon on Friday. 

Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

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World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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