View from the BaDMaN Boot Room - GW 12

Friday, November 9 2018

 

Is it just me, or does anyone else hope that Rooney gets sent off for a two-footed stamp during his 15-minute cameo for England. Then calls the FA fxxxxxg divvies and flicks the Vs to the fans as he leaves the field…?

And is photographed kissing a middle-aged prostitute goodbye in her doorway the following morning. Not a classy one either, one who lives in a terraced behind a railway station. 

Right. It is just me then.

To business…

Goalkeeper

Total Pts

GW 11 Total

Ederson (MC)

60

3

Defenders

 

 

Alonso (CHE)

78

6

Robertson (LIV)

59

2

Trippier (TOT)

58

4

Laporte (MC)

52

2

Midfielders

 

 

Hazard (CHE)

79

2

Sterling (MC)

77

21

Salah (LIV)

67

4

Mane (LIV)

65

2

Forwards

 

 

Aguero (MC)

73

13

Wilson (BOU)

70

7

 

Mirror, mirror on the wall…

Ederson (MC) is going to be as difficult to shift from the No 1 as the JFK assassination tattoo from his neck (If you look closely you can see an unmistakable puff of smoke from behind the picket fence, just behind his ear). City even conceded last weekend – their first in six matches. But nearest rival Alisson is a couple of clean sheets adrift.

Looky looky, same same…

No change in the back-four either – unless you count the switching of Laporte (MC) and Trippier (TOT) to third and fourth. In which case, BIG change in the back four! Tripper’s assist helped him leapfrog Laporte into third spot, just a point behind the FPL’s second best defender (and, curiously, Scotland’s second bets left back) Robertson (LIV). Alonso (CHE) has rediscovered his taste for assists with two in two weeks, so remains miles ahead.

Buy buy buy…

The value of Sterling (MC) is on the rise after an underwear-staining 21pts v Southampton. He’s now so good, he’s taken to bringing himself down in the penalty area and has been pulling his own shirt at set-pieces in training this week. Hazard (CHE) only played 25 minutes but notched an assist to stay out front. Mo and Mane (LIV) did just enough to stay involved but keep the faith – it’s Fulham at the weekend. 

If the cap fits…

What a week for Wilson (BOU). Another goal (against Man United) has kept him at the sharp end of our Dream Team – and got him an England call up. Not sure which he will be more pleased about. At least we won’t hook him for the last 15 minutes so Wayne Rooney can fulfil whatever promotional deal those bandits at the FA have cooked up.

Aguero (MC) is back in the frame too, edging out twin Gunners Lacazette and Aubameyang (thank god. I’m sick to death of typing it. It never looks right). Oh crap, he’s going to make the bench isn’t he. Unless…

Watch list: Players on the fringe

If you haven’t got, or can’t get, or don’t fancy any of the above – this lot are handy alternatives. 

GK: Alisson (LIV) – Fulham and Watford next. Clean sheet potential.
DEF: Mendy (MC) – Looks like Benji is being spared for PL action. Take note.  
MID: Richarlison (EV) – Has recovered his early season samba beat.
MID: Martial (MU) – Five goals in four for the Le Sulk.  
FOR: Rooney (DC) – Er, just to say thanks for what he has given. Or something.

Later skaterz,

Matt Nesbitt

PL Previews GW 12

Thursday, November 8 2018

 

Here's my nailed-on, banker tip of the week for Sunday's Manc derby...

No-one will be leaving early. United have developed a knack of nicking results despite getting battered for most of the match. And it all started with their improbable 3-2 turnaround at Man City last season,

There was me thinking that Jose was on borrowed time, but no - it's Fergie time, after all.

To business... 


Saturday:
12.30pm Cardiff v Brighton

It’s a big few weeks for Cardiff. They could argue that their PL position (second bottom) is an unfair reflection of their season so far. No one else had the misfortune to meet all of the Top Six in the opening quarter. And last week’s home match v Leicester was also (perhaps unfairly) loaded with emotion. So the next three home matches (it’s Wolves and Southampton after this) are fairly massive.  
Brighton arrive in decent nick though. Before last week’s defeat (away to Everton) their hit a PL high with three wins on the spin and they’ve take 11pts from a possible 15pts v Bottom Half teams thus far. 
Forecast: Under 2.5 Goals 
Scorecast: 0-0
FPL MVPs:
Hot Shot – Murray (BRI) has delivered six goals for his £6.6m price tag so far.
Midfield General – Paterson (CAR) has two in his last three.  
Case for the Defence – Etheridge (CAR) was the PL’s top keeper for the first quarter. No, really!   

3pm Huddersfield Town v West Ham
Winning the six-pointer v Fulham on Monday will have been as much a relief as a boost – defeat may well have have anchored them to the bottom of the PL until May. But their plight still looks desperate from here. Monday’s winner was the first goal their home fans have seen this season – and even that was scored by a Fulham player! 
West Ham have taken a while to play their way into the season, but their front three look a class act. Especially against teams in the Bottom Third of the table – and they are scheduled to face all of them between now and New Year’s Day.  
Forecast: Away Win.
Scorecast: 0-2 
FPL MVPs:
Hot Shot – Arnautovic (WH) a goal and assist last weekend.
Midfield General – Anderson (WH) still waiting to explode, but has real ability.
Case for the Defence – Rice (WH) plays in midfield and has the talent to add assists to his game.
   
3pm Leicester City v Burnley
This has Home Win written all over it for a couple of reasons. It is the first match at the King Power since the tragic loss of the owner, so passions will be running high. And so far, the Foxes have been (almost) perfectly consistent – losing to teams above them in the PL and beating teams below. The 1-1 draw with West Ham is the one kink in the theory, but can be ironed out by a quick glance at Burnley’s form…
Saturday’s visitors are having a mare. They’ve lost three on the spin - shipping 13 goals in the process – and lost four of their last five on the road. You’d think the gravelly voiced one will turn it around eventually, but next week’s home match with Newcastle looks the more likely.     
Forecast: Leicester Win & Both Teams to Score
Scorecast: 2-1
FPL MVPs:
Hot Shot – Vardy (LEI) is due one. And will one here will mean a lot. 
Midfield General – Gray (LEI) has delivered 11pts in the last two matches.
Case for the Defence – Chilwell (LEI) has two assist in his last three.   

3pm Newcastle United v Bournemouth
Only one of Newcastle’s matches has been decided by more than a one-goal margin all season, so few would begrudge one going their way. And although Watford will have left St James’ feeling like the victims of a mugging last weekend, the 1-0 win could be a springboard for better things for Toon. 
Bournemouth are a Top Six team these days, of course – and will mean six of the Top Seven have been negotiated this season (just Liverpool to come on Boxing Day). They will be smarting from their late points spillage v Man United last time out and are chasing a third straight away win ‘to nil’.
Forecast:  A share of the spoils. Draw.
Scorecast: 1-1
FPL MVPs:
Hot Shot – Wilson (BOU) is running defenders ragged.   
Midfield General – Fraser (BOU) is the 5th best midfielder in the FPL.  
Case for the Defence – Dubravka (NEW) is looking at three sheets on the spin.

3pm Southampton v Watford
As far as spirit crushing results go, Southampton’s last three take some beating. Being happy with a draw v high-flying local rivals Bournemouth - who were considered a pub-team when Matt Le Tiss was doing his stuff - hinted at the power shift on the south coast. Stumbling to a 0-0 at home to Newcastle – who had previously returned north with just 1pt from the previous five visits – reinforced the fact that the halcyon days are well over. And a trip to Man City is only going to add multiple insults to injury. Three inside 18 minutes as it turned out. The Saints will need all of their famed patience if the next couple slip past with no points to show. After Watford it is pivotal match with bottom club Fulham. Dark days at St Mary’s.  
Forecast: Away Win to Nil. 
Scorecast: 0-2
FPL MVPs:
Hot Shot – Ings (SOU) is the biggest goal threat on show. Which is no great claim. 
Midfield General – Pereyra (WAT) back in the goals with two in three.   
Case for the Defence – Holebas (WAT) has clean sheet and assist potential.    

5.30pm Crystal Palace v Tottenham
We all know what Gary Neville thinks about Tottenham, but you might be surprised to also learn that one of his pre-season predictions was that Palace would be pushing for ‘best of the rest’ 7th place in the PL. Ouch. But to be fair, not many saw things going quite as badly as they have so far. Performances haven’t been as bad as the one win from ten matches suggest, but the fact that seven of their 8pts have been won v Bottom Four teams. The problem is goals. There have been just two at home (in five matches). Both penalties. Both in the same match. 
Tottenham’s Champions League performance in midweek typified their season. They’re labouring a bit, but getting the job done. And averaging two goals a game on the road is bad news for Palace.
Forecast: Spurs Win and Both Teams to Score.
Scorecast: 1-2
FPL MVPs:
Hot Shot – Even a misfiring Kane (TOT) is best in class here. 
Midfield General – Moura and Lamela (TOT) are far outperforming Eriksen.   
Case for the Defence – Tripper (TOT) is Tottenham’s top man and sure to start. 

Sunday:
12.00 Liverpool v Fulham

Fulham boss Slavisa Jokanovic acknowledged his future wasn’t ‘in his own hands’, following Monday’s defeat to PL basement buddies Huddersfield – their fifth in a row. It might lay at the feet of Liverpool’s forwards, who have been ruthless at home to Bottom Half teams this term – scoring 12 goals in four wins. Jurgen Klopp will demand a response after a sloppy night’s work on Tuesday in the Champions League. But this season’s team are strong at both ends. New keeper Alisson has only fished one out of the Anfield net so far, so one goal might do. It was good enough against Brighton and Huddersfield.  
Forecast: Win to Nil.
Scorecast: 2-0
FPL MVPs:
Hot Shot – Sturridge (LIV) might be a wildcard this weekend, after being hooked at half-time midweek.  
Midfield General – Can’t look beyond Mane’s numbers (LIV).  
Case for the Defence – Same can be said for Robertson (LIV).

2.15pm Chelsea v Everton
For all the talk about Liverpool as being the major threat to Man City’s title challenge this season, I’ve a sneaky feeling that Chelsea could shoplift that thunder. Despite being in ‘transition’, Maurizio Sarri has hit the ground at full sprint – and his English gets better every week, by the way. They are in jabbing distance of City, still unbeaten and with a better GD than Liverpool. They have (arguably) the PL’s best player in their ranks (Hazard), have revived the career of (arguably) England’s most talented player (Barkley). And now look to have got Morata scoring again too.  
Everton go to the Bridge on Sunday having taken just 1pt from matches v teams above them. Can’t see an immediate increase here.
Forecast: Chelsea Win and Bothe Teams to Score
Scorecast: 3-1
FPL MVPs:
Hot Shot – Morata (CHE) is starting to look worthy of his £8.7m price tag.  
Midfield General – Hazard (CHE) should be back after a 30 minute cameo last week.
Case for the Defence – Hard to look past seven-assist Alonso (CHE).     

4.30pm Arsenal v Wolves 
Top marks for artistic merit for these two so far, but both teams need to get back on their respective bandwagons after dropping points in their last couple. Arsenal’s seven wins on the spin juddered to a halt at Palace, before sharing the points with Liverpool. No need for panic – so long as they get back to winning ways here. 
Three straight defeats has signalled that Wolves’ PL honeymoon is over. Again, no kneejerk required – 11th place at this stage would’ve done nicely at the start of the season. And will do come May too. But they will be comforted by the thought of facing Huddersfield and Cardiff next.     
Forecast: Arsenal To Nil.
Scorecast: 2-0 
FPL MVPs:
Hot Shot – Lacazette (ARS) gets the nod over his strike partner on form and value.
Midfield General – Ozil (ARS) should get all the space he craves here.  
Case for the Defence – Bellerin (ARS) pips Wolves’ Doherty on clean sheet potential.  

4.30pm Man City v Man United
It might surprise some to learn that United have the edge over City in the last six meetings – W3 D1 L2. But it’s hard to make a case against the Pep’s boys in their current mood. They’ve romped to six straight wins in all comps – five ‘to nil’ - making it rain goals (23) wherever they go. They could’ve had five by half-time in this fixture last season, but settled for 2-0. Which wasn’t enough, of course. United’s 2-3 second half comeback seemed remarkable at the time but seems to happen every week now. The improbable five minute turnaround in Turin on Wednesday will have them pumped up – and no-one will be leaving early.
Forecast: Score draw 
Scorecast: 2-2
MVPs: 
Hot Shot – Aguero (MC). None in his last five v United, but six in the previous five.
Midfield General – Martial (MU) is United’s main man at the mo.  
Case for the Defence – Mendy (MC) sat out midweek, so looks set to start.

Later skaterz,

Matt Nesbitt

View from the BaDMaN Boot Room - GW 11

Saturday, November 3 2018

 

Two new faces this week. But sadly for the fully-sighted, Ederson's is still on view in goal.

Jeez, it's Hallowe'en every weekend in that lad's house. But have you seen his missus...?!

Tell me she would be with him if he still lived under a bridge in Rio, eating scraps from hospital bins.

Don't get me started.

To more pleasant business...

Goalkeeper

Total 

GW 10 

Ederson (MC)

57pts

8pts

Defenders

 

 

Alonso (CHE)

72pts

11pts

Robertson (LIV)

57pts

0pts

Laporte (MC)

54pts

6pts

Trippier (TOT)

54pts

2pts

Midfielders

 

 

Hazard (CHE)

75pts

0pts

Salah (LIV)

63pts

15pts

Mane (LIV)

63pts

15pts

Fraser (BOU)

62pts

11pts

Forwards

 

 

Aubameyang (ARS)

63pts

8pts

Wilson (BOU)

63pts

13pts

 

Nice stats, shame about the face…

A sixth clean sheet on the spin keeps pretty boy Ederson the ace face in goal. Alisson (LIV) is a full 10pts adrift and only £0.1m cheaper. Pickford (EV), Ryan (BHA) and Patricio (WOL) are only a couple of points behind him and will give you up to £1m to spend elsewhere. But all favour home matches.

Any Laporte in a storm…

City’s miserly run has also opened the door for Laporte* to make his bow in the Team of the Week. That’s seven sheets from ten, folks. Wolves’ wing-back Doherty pays the price for Wolves’ PL honeymoon coming to an end. But with the Top Five dominating the top eight slots now, he is a nice price alternative (£4.9) and carries a threat at the other end. 

(* This isn’t just thrown together y’know…)

Ryan mighty…

Hazard took the week off and still has headroom. Sadio Salah and Mo Mane (that’s tight, isn’t it…?) are duking it out for next best. Mane will save you £3.2m but only offers goals (six), whereas Salah offers assists (four) and is still moving through the gears (five goals so far). But Fraser’s double at Fulham makes him the assist king (with five) and a snip at £6.1m. Almost a quarter of players (23.6%) have snapped him up.

Aubameyang thank you ma’am…

A fifth strike in his last three has taken Arsenal’s (latest) flying No. 14 to the top of the tree. Take up is split between him and his mate Lacazette (15.1% v 14.1%) but PEA is the pick for me, based on bench impact.  

Callum Wilson’s 13pts weekend was unlucky for Fulham. The Bournemouth frontman seems to miss as many as he scores, but he has squeezed some big (and much more exotically priced) superdooper stars out of the X1 – Aguero and Kane among them. So, fair dos. 

However, if I were a betting man and had a farm – it would go on Aguero to score more v Southampton than Wilson will against Man United.  

Which brings me to the…

Watch list: Players on the fringe

If you haven’t got, or can’t get, or don’t fancy any of the above – this lot are handy alternatives. 

GK: Pickford (EVE) – a team on the up, nice price and at home to Brighton. 
DEF: Mendy (MC) – has been bubbling under for a while and has sheet and assist potential v Southampton.  
MID: Sterling (MC) – likewise, they’ll be plenty of gaols to share at the Etihad on Sunday.  
FOR: Aguero (MC) -  and Sergio might fancy one of three. 

Have funtasy. 

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

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Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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