Premier League Preview - Game 22 New Year Fixtures

Sunday, December 31 2017

 

Jeez, it’s relentless this… 

As per, the Tap Ins are short-price bankers best used in Doubles, Trebles and Accas.

The Smart Money bets are for pick-pocketing a bit of value out of the bookies. And there are a few Long Shots in there that are worth a punt. Stake accordingly. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots    

And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Let's do it...

New Year’s Day:
Brighton v Bournemouth
Brighton are neat and tidy and competing well, but under the current rules there is only so far you can go without scoring goals. Two in nine matches is a piss-take. Bournemouth also look a better side on the pitch than they do in numbers. But that’s what they’ll add up in May.
Tap in: Nothing to take to the bank here.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 3.5 Goals at 5/2.
Scorecast: Both to settle for a 1-1. 

Burnley v Liverpool
Burnley have taken just three points from four matches over the festive period, by far their worst form of the season. Three tough away trips and a rampant Tottenham will have drained their tank too, so a clean sheet will be difficult against free-scoring Liverpool. And that means winning will be too. Despite tempting prices…
Tap in: Double Chance: Burnley & Draw at 13/8 is too big to ignore. 
Smart Money: Draw & Under 3.5 Goals is value at 21/5.
Scorecast: Burnley to hang on for a 1-1.

Leicester v Huddersfield
Leicester need a win to rescue a blue Christmas. Just the late point against Man United is an unfair representation, but thems the beats. Huddersfield have ground out three draws but could run out of steam here. 
Tap in: Leicester to win but 8/13 is a little short for my tastes.
Long Shot: Leicester Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 9/2.(Coral via #YourCall)
Scorecast: A hard-fought 2-1.

Stoke v Newcastle
Mark Hughes’ picked the team for this match before the 0-5 concession to Chelsea, so must win to save face. Perhaps even his job. But three points would make for a solid return over Christmas. Newcastle look desperately in need of reinforcements and also shuffled the pack last time out. 
Tap in: Nothing squealing here.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 3.5 Goals is decent value at 29/10.
Long Shot: Stoke Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 8/1. (Coral via #YourCall)
Scorecast: Fancy Stoke might edge it 1-0.
 
Everton v Man United
Beep beep beep… Might not be a great spectacle once these two buses are backed into position. But both teams need a positive result to dredge some joy out of Christmas. Everton’s goals have dried up again, but will take some shifting. And Jose is running out of excuses for his misfiring United. 
Tap in: Anthony Martial to have 2+ Shots at 4/5 is better than any Match Results. (Coral via #YourCall)
Smart Money: Draw & Under 3.5 Goals is value at 14/5. But to make it interesting I’m tempted by…
Long Shot: Both Teams to Score: NO, Over 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 13/2.
Scorecast: Hmm, 1-0 either way. I’ll go United. 

Tuesday:
Southampton v Crystal Palace

A draw at Old Trafford went some way to erasing the shocker at Tottenham, but Saints will have bigger problems posed by Palace’s front three (and the 10/11 Home Win price is an insult). Scoring the last minute penalty might’ve been a bit rich, but Roy’s boys are on the up and a handful for anyone outside the Top Six.
Tap in: Double Chance: Palace or Draw at 20/23.
Long Shot: Palace & Under 2.5 Goals is a snip at 7/1. 
Scorecast: Has got the look of a tired 0-0.

Swansea v Tottenham
If Swansea stay up – which I doubt – they will look at the late turnaround at Watford as the turning point. It’s also taken the pressure off here. But Tottenham’s recent revival (not to mention the week to prepare) should be more than enough to get the job done.
Tap in: The 1/3 Away Win has limited appeal.
Smart Money: Tottenham & Under 3.5 Goals is preferable to Win To Nil at 21/20.
Scorecast: At a canter 0-2.

West Ham v West Brom
The week between matches makes West Ham hard to oppose against a West Brom team that looks as far away from winning matches/ turning things around/ staying up as when Tony Pulis was in charge. Plus Moyes’ lot have goals in them. So…
Tap in: Home Win at 10/11.
Smart Money: West Ham & Under 3.5 Goals gives us 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 which should do it. 7/5.
Scorecast: We’ll go 2-0.

Man City v Watford
You’ve got to fear for Watford. A little dip in form, a bit of bad luck and calamitous last few minutes against Swansea has undone their really good start. The last thing they need is a raping at City followed by an early FA Cup exit by Bristol City, but you wouldn’t back against it.    
Smart Money: Man City/ Man City in the HT/FT at 4/6 is the best available.
Scorecast: Pfft. I dunno. 3-0?

Arsenal v Chelsea
Whisper it, but Arsenal are starting to motor a little bit. Especially at home. And don’t even mouth the words, but Jack Wilshere looks good too. Chelsea usually bring the best out of them too, so we shouldn’t expect much to be asked or given here. Top Four-wise a point apiece wouldn’t do any harm.
Tap In: Arsenal Draw No Bet at 4/5 looks pleasant enough.
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score at 16/5 is also worth a nibble. 
Scorecast: On the fence 1-1.

Before wading in with all your Christmas money, bear in mind that in most cases the fourth match in the space of a week. So we can expect the odd quirky one. Just saying.

Oh and Happy New Year, yeah?
 

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 21

Friday, December 29 2017

 

The Palace v Arsenal match produced another winning Tap In – that’s nine out of ten for Game Week 20, with one void. But were a couple of cards short of our 9/2 Long Shot. Them’s the beats.

I’ve asked Alexa to give me the best betting value from 2017’s final set of fixtures. This is what she said…

Match Results

Chelsea to beat Stoke
Liverpool to beat Leicester
Watford to beat Swansea
Man United to beat Southampton            £1 Four-fold returns £3.74

 

Both Teams to Score

Liverpool v Leicester
Crystal Palace v Man City                         £1 Double returns £3.15    

 

Win & Both Teams to Score

Liverpool to beat Leicester
Arsenal to beat West Brom                      £1 Double returns £9
Man City to beat Crystal Palace              £0.5 Treble returns £12

 

Win & Under 3.5 Goals

Burnley & Under 3.5 Goals
Watford & Under 3.5 Goals                       £0.5 Double returns £4.50
Newcastle & Under 3.5 Goals                  £0.5 Treble returns £11 
Man United & Under 3.5 Goals                £0.5 Four-fold returns £24

I’ll be back on Sunday peeking at the blinders on Monday and Tuesday’s coupon. 

Who’s gonna stop us? Nobody.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game 21

Thursday, December 28 2017

 

There’s me getting all ‘Jose’ about fixture congestion, rattling on about shocks in store from the Christmas matches and Ping Pang Poom – it’s all 12pts profit from Boxing Day here… 11/4 and 7/1 winners from Newcastle v Man City there…

So I’ve kept my lucky pants on and polished my crystal balls to see if we can do it again this weekend. 

As per, the Tap Ins are short-price bankers best used in Doubles, Trebles and Accas.

The Smart Money bets are for pick-pocketing a bit of value out of the bookies. And there are a few Long Shots in there that are worth a punt. Stake accordingly. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots       

And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Sing it, fellas…

Saturday:
Bournemouth v Everton

No wins in eight and growing injury list has Bournemouth teetering on the brink of a crisis. Just a single point from 11 matches v Top Half teams doesn’t bode well. Everton’s ship has been well and truly steadied. The next step is going to places like this and winning. But I’m not convinced.
Tap in: Nothing to hang your hat on here.  
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals is value at 14/5.
Scorecast:  Everton the happier with a 1-1.

Chelsea v Stoke
Chelsea are in efficient but not spectacular mode at the moment. They might be glad their festive fixtures haven’t been more testing. Stoke have haemorrhaged goals against Top Five teams – 21 in five so far. No joy for Sparky or Badmen – the bookies have priced the life out of this. But…
Tap in: Home Win but not at 1/6.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals is better – but not much - at 11/10.
Scorecast: A functional 2-0.

Huddersfield v Burnley
Huddersfield have certainly found their feet – and confidence in the Pl. And wrestled a 0-0 out of Burnley at their place so will their eyes on another point here. Burnley’s challenge is staying ‘on it’ in between glamour ties v Spurs and Man United and upcoming Liverpool and City matches. Can’t see them losing though.
Tap in: Double Chance: Burnley or Draw at 4/7.
Smart Money:  Burnley Win & Under 3.5 Goals is value at 14/5.
Long Shot: Five 1-0 wins already says it is worth a punt at 13/2
Scorecast: Dyche likes a 0-1.

Liverpool v Leicester
A goalfest on paper. We know Liverpool’s front four have got a goal apiece in them. But Leicester are perfectly equipped to damage their back five, although the impending arrival from Southampton might prompt a reaction. Leicester have had a tough run of results and will fancy they can hurt Liverpool.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 8/11.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score is a sensible 6/4. 
Scorecast: I’ll take a 3-1.
 
Newcastle v Brighton
After a creditable showing against City’s Harlem Globetrotters, Newcastle need to take points from their next three matches (Brighton, Stoke and Swansea). They have been pretty effective against the Bottom Third – W5 D2 L1 - although Brighton are currently hovering just above it. Away goals remain elusive though. 
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 8/15.
Smart Money: Newcastle Win To Nil at 21/10.
Scorecast: Stuck between 1-0 and 2-0. You choose.

Watford v Swansea 
Watching Swansea taking a five-star hiding at Liverpool was like seeing a puppy being beaten to death. This shouldn’t be as punishing I’ll still be watching through my fingers. Watford needed – and deserved – the break of Kasper Schmeichel throwing one in his own net. Expect a high energy showing ahead of their Man City trip. 
Tap in: Home Win at 4/6.
Smart Money: Don’t trust Swansea to score so Watford & Over 2.5 Goals at 15/8.
Long Shot: Swansea’s last three away goals have taken the lead, so let’s have a punt on Swansea/ Watford in the HT/FT market at 28/1.
Scorecast: Let’s go 2-1.

Man United v Southampton
Remember when last minute goals at Old Trafford used to win games, rather than snatch draws against the likes of Burnley. They’ve made a right pigs ear of the last two, spilling four big points. But Southampton looked like a team of triallists playing for a transfer against Tottenham. Which, of course, they mostly are.
Tap in: Home Win but not at 4/11 thank you very much. 
Smart Money: Man United/ Man United in the HT/FT is better at 21/20.
Long Shot: Coral are throwing up Man United Win, Lukaku to have 3+ shots and Matic win 2+ tackles at 4/1.
Scorecast: Back to something like business – 3-0.

Sunday:
Crystal Palace v Man City 

You can’t back against them, but Man City will have to work for this. Palace have revived their season on a fairly friendly set of fixtures, but have goals in them – averaging two a match over the last seven. City, of course, can pull goals out of a hat but won’t be suited to Sunday morning football. So I’m going for it here…
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/5.
Smart Money: Man City & Both Teams to Score at 8/5.
Long Shot: Let’s have a 14/1 nibble on the Draw & Over 3.5 Goals. 
Scorecast: Although I suspect City will do enough 1-2.

West Brom v Arsenal
Hmm. West Brom, eh? Arsenal on the road, you say? Tricky pair these two. Albion’s form hasn’t been that bad, but 19 without a win is some bump in the road to get over. Arsenal are – at best – hit and miss on their travels. So I’m going to have to play the value here.
Tap in: Move along please. Nothing to see here.
Smart Money: Arsenal Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 8/5.
Long Shot: The Draw & Under 2.5 Goals could look like an open goal missed at 15/4. 
Scorecast: Arsenal. Just. 1-2.

Look out for my Coupon Busters on Friday.

At ease.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game 20 (last couple)

Wednesday, December 27 2017

 

I hope you got everything you wanted in your Christmas stocking. I decided to stick to winning advice this year – you’ve just got so difficult to buy for. So spend your 12.54pts profit on something nice.

We hit seven of the eight Boxing Day Tap Ins – the other was a void - landing seven of 14 Smart Bets or Long Shots. Hope you were on the right end of at least a couple of them. 

But if not, there’s two more matches to deal with from Game Week 20…

Wednesday:
Newcastle v Man City

Newcastle will be looking ahead to the Brighton, Stoke and Swansea matches after this one to define their season. So avoiding injury and insult will be a bigger priority than collecting points here. Not expecting City to get out of third gear, so there might be some value in doubling or trebling Corners and Bookings Points bets.
Tap In: Away Win but we don’t mess with 1/4s.
Smart Money: Man City to win, Under 11.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 10/3 (Coral #YourCall).
Long Shot: Man City Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 11.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 7/1 (Coral #YourCall).
Scorecast: Steady as she goes 0-2.

Thursday:
Crystal Palace v Arsenal 

High fives to Roy’s Boys going eight unbeaten but it has coincided with some friendly fixtures. However, Arsenal at home also falls into that category. Just two away wins – lucky at Burnley and against a lowest ebb Everton – all season and listless draws in their last two, gives Palace every chance of a share of the spoils.
Tap In: Both Teams to Score at 4/7.
Smart Money: Palace Draw No Bet at 2/1.
Long Shot: Both Teams to Score: YES, Under 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 9/2 (Coral #YourCall).
Scorecast: All square - 1-1.

There is a pile up of matches from Saturday to Tuesday which I’ll be tackling on Friday (29th) and Sunday (31st), so listen out for your pager.

If it’s not a Los Angeles drug dealer from the early 80s, it’ll be me.

Word.
 

Matt Nesbitt

 

Premier League Preview - Game 20 Boxing Day

Sunday, December 24 2017

 

The blank from Chelsea and the last minute equaliser at Leicester won’t be the only shockers of the festive period. Boxing Day’s coupon looks a testy one too.

As per, the Tap Ins are short-price bankers best used in Doubles, Trebles and Accas.

The Smart Money bets are for pick-pocketing a bit of value out of the bookies. And there are a few Long Shots in there that are worth a punt. Stake accordingly. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots   

And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Eyes down...

Boxing Day:
Tottenham v Southampton
Normal service looked to have been resumed at Burnley. Just in time for a tidy run of fixtures before a double header with Liverpool and Man United at the end of January. Another quick start will take care of Southampton, who have taken just one point from seven matches against Top Eight teams. 
Tap in: Home Win at 1/3.  
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10.
Scorecast:  Solid 2-0.

Bournemouth v West Ham
Four defeats on the spin and a growing injury list has left Bournemouth reeling a bit. Although they have been decent against Bottom Half teams so far – W4 D3 L1. West Ham’s revival has stuttered in the last two, but their performances have been good enough to get something here.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 5/6.
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 10/3.
Long Shot: West Ham Win & Both Teams to Score is value at 9/2.
Scorecast: A point apiece will be a decent afternoon’s work. 1-1.

Chelsea v Brighton
Chelsea are not anywhere near the fluent unit we saw last season but they are efficient at home and there’s no escaping Brighton’s away record. Six trips to Top Half teams has yielded just one point and not a single goal.
Tap in: Home Banker but 1/5 is an insult. 
Smart Money:  Chelsea & Under 3.5 Goals is more like it at 10/11.
Long Shot: Chelsea Win, Under 12.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 11/5. (Coral #YourCall)
Scorecast: A fifth 2-0 defeat on the road for Brighton.

Huddersfield v Stoke
Huddersfield’s six-pointer over Brighton a month ago has been a mini turning point. Four points since has them going into this six-pointer in better fettle than Stoke. Beating West Brom was essential, but won’t have improved their mood. It’s just one point from four on the road. 
Tap in: Huddersfield Draw No Bet at 8/11. 
Long Shot: Draw & Both Teams to Score is value at 17/5.
Scorecast: 1-1 written all over it.

Man United v Burnley
This is an ugly one for Man United on the back of a sloppy late goal loss in the EFL Cup and spilled points at Leicester. They’ll be glad to be back at home – where only City have been better this season. But Burnley have had points off Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs already and will enjoy this more than United.
Tap in: Burnley (+3) at 2/5 looks better than the Home Win at 1/4.
Smart Money: Man United Win & Under 3.5 Goals is decent value at 20/23.
Long Shot: Man United Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 3/1. (Coral #YourCall)
Scorecast: A nervy 2-1.

Watford v Leicester City
It’s all gone a bit wonky for Watford lately. After 15pts from their opening eight matches, they have mustered just 7pts from their last 11. Leicester arrive in good shape, seven unbeaten on the road and buoyed by draws against the Manchester pair in their last two (all comps). Can’t see them leaving empty handed.
Tap in: Both teams to Score at 6/10.
Smart Money: Leicester Draw No Bet is solid at Evens.
Long Shot: Both Teams to Score, Over 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 6/1. 
Scorecast: Could see a desmond. 2-2.

West Brom v Everton
Everton will fancy their chances of taking at least one, possibly all three points here. Likewise, if West Brom go another match without winning some of the faithful might start pining for the type of dull-Pulis style football that has turned Everton’s season around. 
Tap in: Double Chance Everton or Draw at 8/15. 
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 12/5 good easily happen.
Long Shot: Draw/ Everton in the HT/ FT is value at 11/2.   
Scorecast: Fancy Everton to pinch this 0-1.

Liverpool v Swansea 
After three draws from the last four matches, Liverpool cannot accept anything less than maximum points here. With little threat on offer offer, Liverpool’s standard three goals should be more than enough to take the points. The Swans are bang in trouble and it’s going to worse (here) before it gets better.
Tap in: Home Win but 1/6 can do one.
Smart Money: Even Liverpool Win To Nil is tight at 3/4.
Long Shot: Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO & Under 10.5 Corners at 11/4.
Scorecast: Threesy does it - 3-0.

There are another couple of games on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll get to those on Boxing Day.

Matt Nesbitt

TV Guide - Game19: Arsenal v Liverpool & Burnley v Tottenham

Friday, December 22 2017

 

As philosopher Noddy Holder once said, it’s CHRIIIIIIIISTMAAAS. And it’s at this time of year I think I know what he meant. 

Our stockings are stuffed with fixtures over the next week or so and we’ll be covering them all right here, so don’t touch that dial. 

Starting with a festive goal-fest at the Emirates…

Arsenal v Liverpool. 7.45pm Friday on Sky Sports.

I’ll give you Even Money the phrase ‘Christmas Cracker’ gets aired within 20 seconds of Sky’s coverage.

But it is the pick of the Christmas weekend fixtures, to be fair. There are usually goals when these two meet – an average of more than four per match in the last seven, in fact. And that includes a rogue 0-0 draw.

Liverpool have won the last three and take the more convincing form into the match. 19 goals in the last five on the road tells you how they will go about winning it and Arsenal can only play one way, despite three clean sheets on the spin.

Plus, with City away and clear and Man United and Chelsea threatening to breakaway, both teams need three points from this. So with goals a given, I propose playing like this:

Tap In

· Both Teams to Score at 4/9

Too short for a single, but looks the bet of the weekend.

Smart Bets

  • Draw & Both Teams to Score at 16/5

Could go either way, but have a feeling both will have to settle for the draw neither wants. And this looks the best way to cash in.

Long Shots

  • HT/ FT is at 5/1
  • Both Teams to Score: YES, Over 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 11/2 (via Coral’s #YourCall)

Two value calls worth a punt at sensible stakes. Neither teams attract many bookings – and the Under 35.5 option is on offer at 7/2 – but I’m going over based on price and intensity.

And then on Saturday teatime...

Burnley v Tottenham. 5.30pm on BT Sport. 

Burnley are currently a point ahead of Spurs and in superior form – with four wins from five at home, including four clean sheets. The one blip being the last minute mugging at the hands of Arsenal. 

Tottenham meanwhile have stuttered and stumbled to just a single point from their last five on the road. Which was hard on Watford, in truth. 

And yet the bookies make Spurs 1/2 favourites to win the match. This HAS to be taken on, Badmen. Tell your Bad friends.

You’ll get the same 1/2 odds backing Burnley with a two-goal headstart. And that’s just the start.

The suspended James Tarkowski will be a miss for Burnley – and I suspect Dyche Dyche Baby would be more than happy with a share of the points. But this kind of value has to be snapped up…

Tap In

  • Burnley (+2) Match Handicap at 1/2

Short, but it looks like buying money from here. 

Smart Bets

  • Double Chance: Burnley & the Draw at 29/20
  • Draw/ Draw in the HT/FT at 9/2

The first is inexplicable value and must be backed. The Draw/ Draw has paid out in five of Burnley’s six draws this season, including at Spurs.

Long Shots

  • Burnley Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 7/1
  • Burnley Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 14/1

Burnley are well capable of spoiling Spurs’ Christmas. And making ours. Get on.

I’ll be back up your grill on Sunday - balls deep in Boxing Day. 

Happy multi denominational holidays. Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 19

Thursday, December 21 2017

 

Silly season starts here. Christmas punting is a bit like disappearing into the stationary cupboard with Sophie from accounts at the office party. Seems like a good idea at the time, but you can easily end up with only mild embarrassment to show for your spent wad. 

Injuries – genuine and otherwise, funny kick off times, Christmas parties… all these can put a kink in form lines and chuck spanners in the works. 

So to avoid getting too much Tippex down our trousers, we’ll sidestep Sophie and simply photocopy our arse a few times. .

Have it…

Draws

  1. Arsenal v Liverpool
  2. Everton v Chelsea
  3. Brighton v Watford            £2 Trixie returns £40 (any 2 pays at least £5.70)

 

  1. Stoke v West Brom
  2. Burnley v Tottenham
  3. Southampton v Huddersfield        £2 Trixie returns £40 (any 2 pays at least £5.50)

        
Looks like a lot of draws around to me. We won’t land all of them so we’ll play smart and have a Trixie disco across six matches. 

 

Both Teams to Score

  1. Arsenal v Liverpool
  2. Brighton v Watford
  3. Leicester v Man United            £1 Treble returns £5
  4. Everton v Chelsea
  5. Stoke v West Brom                  £0.5 Five-fold returns £11

Both teams to score in Arsenal v Liverpool look the bet of the weekend and I quite like the Treble. The other two are well-backed by stats, but I’m losing confidence in all four of the protagonists so stake accordingly.        

 

Win & Both Teams to Score

  1. Liverpool to beat Arsenal 
  2. Man United to beat Leicester        £0.5 Double returns £9

A bit of a value punt, but well worthy of a silly fiver. Should add a bit of spice to watching the matches too. 

I’ll have more to say about Arsenal v Liverpool and Burnley v Tottenham later.

Later skaters,
 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 19

Wednesday, December 20 2017

 

The Christmas chaos starts here. Expect thrills, spills and bellyaches. And evening kick offs.

Here is my Badman take on the Friday/ Saturday fixtures. The Tap-ins are made up of short-priced Double, Treble and Acca fodder. 

The Smart Money bets are for pick-pocketing a bit of value out of the bookies. And there are a few Long Shots in there that are worth a punt. Stake accordingly. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots    

And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Nurse...? The scalpel...

Friday:
Arsenal v Liverpool
Liverpool have won the last four meetings, scoring 14 goals along the way. They can go one better than that in their last four on the road too, so we know what we’re getting from the visitors. 
Arsenal have been pretty much perfect at home. Man United is the only blot, but key.  Just a single point from four matches v Top Four teams tells a story.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/9.
Long Shot: Draw/ Draw in the HT/ FT is value at 5/1.
Scorecast: A point earned - 1-1 

Saturday:
Everton v Chelsea
The first real test of Big Sam’s reign – unless the test at Anfield was how to win with one attack (passed). Now secure in the mid-table ‘no fire’ zone, they will be set up to stifle, bully and bore.  Chelsea have so far had just enough to get over this type of hurdle, but I’m not convinced all is well going into Christmas. 
Tap in: Everton (+2) Match Handicap at 4/9.
Smart Bet: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals is value at 7/2.
Long Shot: Draw/ Everton is too big at 11/1.
Scorecast: As above, a point gained - 1-1.

Brighton v Watford
Brighton are one of the most consistent teams in the PL at home: Generally they beat the teams in the bottom third (W2 D1); lose to the Top Four (L2) and draw the rest (D4). Watford fit in the middle category and will be desperate not to leave empty handed after five winless matches and nothing going their way.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score is decent value at 10/11.
Smart Money:  The Draw & Both Teams To Score is worth a punt at 17/5.
Scorecast: Hmm. Another 1-1 by the looks.

Man City v Bournemouth
This won’t end 1-1. We know what City do so this is all about what Bournemouth bring to the orgy. I’m thinking not a lot, based on one less day preparation and three much more winnable matches to come in the next month. Bournemouth have only scored twice in eight matches v the top eight so far. Hold your nose and swallow, Mr Howe. 
Tap in: Even City/ City in the HT/FT is 4/9.  Eyes roll.
Smart Money: Man City to Nil pays 10/11, but I’d be tempted to swerve in favour of…
Scorecast:  A steady 3-0 pays 13/2.  

Southampton v Huddersfield
Currently three points behind Huddersfield and with just one win in nine (against a very poorly Everton a month ago) and yet the Saints are quote 4/7 to win this.  Let’s oppose it, shall we? The visitors looked on the edge of a cliff after a run of four bad losses, but seem to have flung the baddie over instead. Way to fling, Wagner. 
Tap in: Huddersfield (+2) Match Handicap at 4/9. 
Smart Money: Double Chance: Draw & Huddersfield at 13/10.
Long Shot: Huddersfield & Both Teams to Score HAS to be worth a punt at 11/1.
Scorecast: But they’ll take a 1-1.

Stoke v West Brom
Y’know that cliff that Huddersfield looked on the edge of a month ago? Well, Stoke are currently staring at the rocks below. Defeat to West Brom and they could be getting a closer look. It’s just one win in eight for Sparky and he could be running into West Brom at just the wrong time. Another second half like the one against Man United could get them something here.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2.
Long Shot: Draw/ Draw HT/FT at 13/4.
Scorecast: A repeat of last season’s 1-1.

Swansea v Crystal Palace
Swansea’s record over the last eight matches – LLDLLWLL – looks more like the name of a nearby town. Paul Clement clearly wasn’t cut out for a relegation scrap and you have to fear for his abandoned ugly ducklings. They need a ‘bounce’ against a Palace side fat from seven points - and goals - from their last three matches.   
Tap in: Palace Draw No Bet at 8/11.
Smart Money: Palace Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 2/1.
Scorecast: Palace on a roll - 0-1.

West Ham v Newcastle
This looks David Moyes’ easiest assignment so far. A fourth (PL) clean sheet in a row should be enough for a share of the points, but he’s also added a goal threat. Lanzini will be a miss, but Hernandez and – especially – Carroll will be chomping at the bit. Newcastle have only smuggled one away point off teams above them in the PL – and that’s 17 right now. Could be 18 by New Year.
Tap in: West Ham Draw No Bet at 1/2.
Smart Money: West Ham Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 17/10.
Scorecast: Newcastle’s fifth 1-0 defeat on the road.

Burnley v Tottenham
Burnley sit a point ahead of Spurs in the PL, with four wins from the last five at home. Tottenham meanwhile have only managed one (spawny) point on the road since September 30th, six matches ago. But are 8/15 to win the match. This is called reputation pricing by bookmakers and has to be taken on. Dip. Your. Bread. In.
Tap in: Burnley (+2) Match Handicap at 1/2. 
Smart Money: Double Chance: Burnley & Draw at 7/5.
Long Shots:  Burnley Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 13/2 and Burnley Win To Nil at 10/1.
Scorecast: Can see Tottenham smuggling a point, but that’s all. 1-1. 

Leicester v Man United
Leicester’s 0-3 slap from Palace is the only real stain on a tidy two-month run of form. Taking man City’s reserves to penalties won’t have done any harm to confidence and a visit from the red lot won’t worry them like it might’ve once. I don’t think all is well at United. Jose has based a career on winning ugly, but has never been so moody. No one looks happy and nor am I with the Away Win odds-on.  
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/5 is better.
Smart Money: First-half Result: Man United at 6/4.
Long Shot: Man United Win & Both Teams to Score at 14/5.
Scorecast: Just enough again – 1-2.

There'll be some coupon bustin' Coupon Busters and your TV Match Profiles along on Friday. Followed by your Boxing Day guide on Sunday.  

Keep it festive, yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

 

 

What we learned from Game Week 18

Tuesday, December 19 2017

 

Just about broke even for the weekend. Which doesn’t sound like much, but it is better than 98.2% of the football betting public.

Yes, you read that right Badmen – according to the poindexters in the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Trent University, less than 2% of football bettors ever make any money. 

So even when we shoot a blank, we’re still in front. Speaking of which…

They think it’s all over…

If Man City’s bullying of not-so-noisy neighbours United at Old Trafford was the bell for last orders on the league title, Saturday’s dismantling of Tottenham rang the second bell. Can you drink up now gents…?!

Rather than wasting valuable fuel trying to beat City, the rest of the Premier League will simply write of the points and plan around the fixture. And concentrate on the matches they can win.

Likewise, rather than opposing City for the big payoff or backing them for the negligible one. I will be plotting how we can draw the best possible value from the inevitable. Like the 27/20 HT/FT and the 15/8 City & BTTS at the weekend. 

Christian Eriksen made us sweat a bit before bobbling in the injury time consolation. But if we’re in with a shout of a 2/1 payout in the 92nd minute of all Man City matches this season, I’ll take that.

There’s more than one way to skin a bookie…

When I started out in this racket all you could bet on was the Match Result, Correct Score and Scorers pretty much. Unless you had an understanding with an independent bookie – or ‘turf accountant’ – who would take your bets on request. All over the counter, of course. With real pound notes – remember those? 

(An errand I ran every day for two years for Man City, West Ham and Reading journeyman – and Northampton Town legend - Trevor Morley. Maybe I’ll tell you that story one day…).

Anyway… now, the ways to make money from football betting are endless. With a choice of 150+ markets for Sunday league matches.

And it doesn’t even stop there…

Money never sleeps…

Have you seen Football Index yet? It’s a stock market for footballers, in a nut shell. I can’t really be arsed to go into the ins and outs – or buys and sells – right now, but it’s pretty self-explanatory (have a gander here…).

Basically, you buy and sell shares in players which go up or down based on their performances – on the pitch and in the media. 

Me and Ben (the Wolf of Wallsend) started dabbling at the start of the season and are now a pair of sleep-deprived-itchy-veined addicts. Using three times a day, clucking endlessly about transfer gossip and sharing trades like dirty needles. 

It’s fucking awesome. And it’ll get you hooked too, trust me…

You never know what’s around the corner…

My football career started with a trip to the bookies. I should’ve known then, I s’pose…

Day one at Northampton Town as a bright-eyed, busy-mulletted 16 year old I was sent to the bookies with the name of three horses and five of Trevor Morley’s pounds.

I didn’t have to go back for winnings - I soon learned that one of the perks of administrating Trevor’s punting habit was it was usually a one-trip gig. 

But I never once slipped his cash into my shell suit pocket, like some apprentices did. Every last penny made it over the counter. So I never got stripped and dumped in the middle of town for not being able to cover the winnings of the bet I failed to place. Nasty business.  

Coming up this week:

Thursday: Weekend matches previews
Friday: Your weekend Coupon Busters
Saturday: Your TV guide to cashing in on Burnley v Tottenham and/ or Leicester v Man United.
 

Matt Nesbitt

 

TV Guide - Game Week 18: WBA v Man United & Bournemouth v Liverpool

Sunday, December 17 2017

 

How do you get a 2/1 payout from an 8/13 bet? You bet like a Badman.

A tidy clean sweep from Man City's mauling of Tottenham. Now let's see what their progressively less noisy neighbours can muster... 

WBA v Man United. 2.15pm  on Sky

Okay, we all know Man United should win this. The bookies know this. Even Alan Pardew knows this.  The trick is unpicking how they will do it. So here goes…

United have put four past the other four Bottom Five teams this season. But three of those were at Old Trafford. On the road, they have looked less convincing – keeping just three clean sheets from eight matches. 

West Brom have performed better than the four point total suggests from their last five matches. But they are not going to open up on United and risk shattering whatever confidence has been built up by taking a hammering, especially with two much more winnable matches (Stoke and Everton) up next. Suspect they’d take another draw right now. 

So I’ll be playing like this…

Tap In

  • Man United to Win at 4/7

Badmen don’t mess with no 4/7 bets. Let this slide and get smart…

Smart Bets

  • Man United Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10
  • Draw/ Man United in the HT/FT at 3/1

The odds-against options for an Away Win. And just for fun (and money that jingles, not folds) let’s have a punt on this…

Long Shot

  • Man United Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Over 9.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 15/2 (available with Coral’s #YourCall)

Quick bar and toilet break, then…

Bournemouth v Liverpool. 4.30 on Sky

Four drop points in the last two at home for Liverpool (or six in the last three if you include Chelsea) suggests we should expect a response. 

Klopp’s Fab Four – or the ‘quad squad’, if you prefer – looked flat midweek. Perhaps still in a mood about the Merseyside derby mugging at the weekend – you know how seriously these Brazilians, Egyptians and Senegalese take local bragging rights… (Shit. Couldn’t. Give. A. Single.)

But it’s Liverpool’s shite six behind them that is the bigger issue.

Bournemouth scored six against Liverpool last season and will fancy outscoring them is their best route to points again this time. They were unlucky not to score against – and, perhaps beat – Man United in the week. But they do have problems with Top Half teams – just one point and three goals from nine matches so far this season.

So I’m thinking…

Tap In

  • Both Teams to Score at 4/6

Looks nailed on but too short to mess with on its own. 

Smart Bets

  • Liverpool Win & Both teams to Score at 15/8

This is value at a smidgeon under 2/1. And in the interests of adding a bit of spice to the spectacle, this is a good case to be made for 10+ Corners and less than 4 Cards. You certainly wouldn’t have to play the match five times for it to deliver. Let’s hope it’s at first time of asking.

Long Shot

  • Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: YES, Over 9.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 5/1 (available with Coral’s #YourCall)

I’ll be back to pick the bones out of the weekend’s shenanigans on Monday. Probably. 

Play nice. 

Matt Nesbitt

TV Guide - Game Week 18: Man City v Tottenham

Saturday, December 16 2017

 

Three TV treats to gnaw on this week. Yes, count ‘em!

I’ll be sounding off about Super Sunday’s West Brom v Man United and Bournemouth v Liverpool in due course, but we can’t really ignore the Man City v Tottenham game can we?

Man City v Tottenham. 5.30pm  on BT Sport

Home Win. The hoopla around the match will have you thinking that this is Man City’s biggest test of the season. Like…er… Man United last week. But the clowns at Sky/ BT have got to try to keep the Premier League interesting for another five months yet. And endlessly questioning whether this is the best team we’ve ever seen ain’t doing it…

So, Home Win. 

Tottenham are obliged to bring both hammer and tongs to the party though. Three defeats and a draw from their last four on the road is, well, a bit shit. Worse than Southampton, Palace and West Brom in fact.

And there is, of course, that unfortunate record of just four wins from the last 86 matches v Top Four teams. Ouch. 

They will be encouraged by a couple of things. First, Man City’s back four doesn’t look good on paper. Or on the edge of their own box. Second, they are conceding goals – five in six. 

But Tottenham’s habit of starting slow could mean the race is run before they even hit stride.

So I’m playing like this:

Tap In:

  • Home Win at 8/13

I’d swerve the odds-on in favour of the two options below, which both offer decent values from a City Home Win.  

Smart Bets:

  • Man City/ Man City in the HT/ FT at 27/20
  • Man City Win & Both Teams to Score at 15/8 (boosted price at Coral)

Keep 'em peeled for a Super Sunday sermon first thing tomo.

Dismissed,

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 18

Friday, December 15 2017

 

A solid 6pts of profit from midweek (actually 5.82pts, but there’s nobody looking). And had Liverpool managed to find a goal against West Brom and Chelsea kept playing until the last whistle, we would’ve added a chunky 19pts on top of that. 

Ah well, whatever. Nevermind. 

Maybe we’ll get the breaks this weekend…

Match Results

  1. Arsenal to beat Newcastle
  2. Chelsea to beat Southampton
  3. Everton to beat Swansea                   £1 Treble returns £3 
  4. Burnley to beat Brighton                    £0.5 Four-fold returns £5 
  5. Man City to beat Tottenham
  6. Man United to beat West Brom         £0.5 Six-fold returns £12

This dirty half a dozen Match Results all have solid credentials. I’ve relegated the Manchester duo to punt status (not rhyming slang) based on value. But no-one will be surprised if they all come in.
        

Both Teams to Score

  1. Leicester City v Crystal Palace
  2. Bournemouth v Liverpool
  3. Man City v Tottenham                     £1 Treble returns £5

        
Palace are long overdue an away goal and I’d like to be on it. Bournemouth and Liverpool's pourous backlines means they will have to try to outscore each other. And that fact that only Swansea have failed to score past Man City in their last six matches encourages me to go to three.


Win to Nil        

  1. Burnley to beat Brighton    
  2. Everton to beat Swansea          £1 Double returns £12

12/1 on Swansea and Brighton not to score is value every day of the week. Plus, sooner or later the bookies are going to start trusting that Burnley are actually a decent side and price them accordingly. But until then we'll keep them over a barrell. 


Win & Both Teams to Score

  1. Leicester to beat Crystal Palace
  2. Liverpool to beat Bournemouth          £0.5 Double returns £6

And just to finish, we’ll have a little tickle on another 12/1 Double that has got every chance. 

Keep it chopped out, yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 18

Thursday, December 14 2017

 

Hot on the high heels of a profitable midweek dabble, let’s see what the weekend has got in store shall we?

We Tapped-in eight from nine in the week – yes, Jurgen we’re all looking at you! But that’s how it should be really. They’re nailed-on. 

Smart Money bets are how to squeeze a bit of value out of the bookies – and we only need to land a couple to get in front. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots.   

(And don’t sign up with Colossus without claiming your £100 in free bets. Use this code: RAFMTS5UU4)

To business...

Saturday:
Leicester City v Crystal Palace

Both will be flying after their midweek wins. Leicester pulled out a season best and look to have a bit of the PL winning mojo back. Palace’s late mugging of Watford was their third 90th minute points-winner in six home matches. They are overdue breaking their duck on the road.  
Tap in: Leicester First Team to Score at 7/10. 
Smart Money: Leicester/ Leicester HT/FT is better value than Win To Nil. Both 9/4.
Scorecast:  The stats say 1-0 all day. I fancy 2-1.

Arsenal v Newcastle United
Only the Manchester pair outgun Arsenal at home. And Arsenal need this to stay in touch with stay in touch with the growing number of teams above them. Nothing much is going for Newcastle at the moment, but they have scored (four) in their last three away games. But one point from seven looks like it might be one from eight here.
Tap in: Ignore the 2/7 Home Win in favour of…
Smart Money: ...Arsenal Win & Both Teams to Score at 15/8.
Scorecast: A full metal jacket 3-1.

Brighton v Burnley
Just one point and one goal from five suggests the PL honeymoon is over in Brighton. They need six (plus) points over Christmas or could be packing their PL bags. Burnley are proving clinical v teams outside the Top Eight with eight wins from 11, seven of them To Nil. And still offering value.
Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at Evens. 
Smart Money:  Burnley Win To Nil at 17/5.  
Scorecast: Wouldn’t dissuade you from backing a sixth 0-1 of the campaign at 13/2.

Chelsea v Southampton
Banker of the weekend. Southampton pick their battles - losing six of their eight matches against Top Half teams. So this should be straightforward for Chelsea, although they have got a slip in them. Goals against Huddersfield and Newcastle in recent weeks have cost us Win & Under 3.5 Goals winners. Bastards. 
Tap in: Thought the Home Win would be shorter than 4/11. 
Long Shot: Draw/ Chelsea HT/ HT is the only thing resembling value at 29/10.
Scorecast:  A lazy 3-1.

Stoke City v West Ham
Stoke built their reputation on being horrible to play against. Nowadays they are just horrible to watch for their fans. West Ham will fancy their chances of getting something on the back of getting four points out of Chelsea and Arsenal. Still without an away win though. A draw wouldn’t be a disaster for either. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 5/6 looks better then picking a winner.
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score is decent at 17/5.
Scorecast: It won’t be pretty. 1-1.

Watford v Huddersfield Town
Just one point from their last four matches has undone Watford’s good start a bit. But it could easily have been four, possibly six points so I’m backing a muscular return to winnings ways. Huddersfield haven’t scored on the road since opening day. 
Tap in: Watford Win at 8/11.
Smart Money: I prefer Watford & Over 2.5 Goals to Win To Nil at the mo. Both 15/8. 
Scorecast: Let’s say - 2-1.

Man City v Tottenham
Don’t believe the hype. Tottenham have won just four of their last 86 away trips to Top Four types. Granted, Spurs are better now. And City have only been a Top Four team for a bite size portion of those 86 matches. But Tottenham don’t look ready to slow down Pep’s juggernaut just yet.
Tap in: City at 4/7.
Smart Money: City & Both Teams to Score at 9/5.  
Scorecast: Five of the last six have been 2-1.

Sunday:
West Brom v Man United

Pardew still has Albion in the recovery position and will be aware their next two are more winnable than this. But everything seems much harder work and much less enjoyable than it should be for Jose at the moment. Likewise, this should be this the first of what should be a long winning streak for United.
Tap in: I prefer the Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 to the Away Win at 4/7.
Long Shot: Draw/ Man United HT/ FT is worth a punt at 3/1.
Scorecast: A just enough 1-2.

Bournemouth v Liverpool
Bournemouth will consider themselves unlucky losing by a single goal at Man United. And at Tottenham. And at home to City and Chelsea. But two points from ten matches v Top Half teams isn’t bad luck.  Liverpool twice spilled two-goal leads here last year. One will do this time around.
Tap in: 1/2 is a bit short for the Away Win for my tastes.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score is more like it at 19/10.
Scorecast: Has the look of goals – 2-4

Monday:
Everton v Swansea

Everton have re-mastered the clean sheet (four from five). And that is usually enough to see off Swansea. Eight of their 11 defeats have been by one goal.  Any positivity from winning the six-pointer v WBA was mercilessly slapped out of them by City in the week. This is a bigger game. But even the pre-Sam Everton were effective v Bottom Half – W5 D2 L1. 
Tap in: Home Win at 8/11.
Smart Money: Everton Win To Nil at 33/20.
Scorecast: Hmm, 1-0. Or 2-0.

I’ll be donning my Coupon Busting mask and cape later today. 
 

Matt Nesbitt

 

Midweek Coupon Busters - Game Week 17

Tuesday, December 12 2017

 

Got a bit splattered by milk and energy drink at the weekend. A full investigation is underway.

This week we’re flicking the ‘v’s at the posing cockney so and sos of Chelsea and Arsenal. And saying ‘what the holy f…?’ to Christian Benteke and Dejan Lovren. Clumsy pair of bastards.   

Bit unlucky with Watford failing to score – for, ahem, the first time this season. Cost us a 12/1 winner that would’ve made everything all right. 

The good thing is, Premier League matches are like the Chinese Army. There’s always a new battalion on the horizon…

Match Results

  1. Burnley to beat Stoke
  2. Chelsea to beat Huddersfield             £1 Double returns £3.30
  3. Liverpool to beat West Brom
  4. Tottenham to beat Brighton
  5. Man City to beat Swansea
  6. Man United to beat Bournemouth       £1 Acca returns £8       

This looks a gimme, all ways around. I take no credit for pointing it out – and better looking six-folds have fallen over before now. But it is worth a silly quid of anyone’s money.  Burnley are on offer at odds-against so should be included in any variation, such as the Tuesday Twosome highlighted.


Win To Nil

  1. Burnley to beat Stoke
  2. Liverpool to beat West Brom
  3. Chelsea to beat Huddersfield        £2 Trixie returns £15.93 (any two pays £4)

 

  1. Man City to beat Swansea
  2. Man United to beat Bournemouth
  3. Tottenham to beat Brighton           £2 Trixie returns £9.52 (any two pays £3.66)


All six should logically, legally, sensibly win To Nil. But it’s not an exact science, this. So to cover ourselves we’ll place two Trixies.*

*If you’d been paying attention at the weekend, you’d remember that a Trixie is four bets in one – three Doubles and a Treble. Stakes are multiplied by four, so this is a 50p bet x 4 = £2. Are you chewing at the back…?

 

Draws

  1. Palace v Watford
  2. Newcastle v Everton
  3. West Ham v Arsenal          £2 Trixie returns £41.40 (any two pays £11)

I’ll level with you – I fancy all of these. And wouldn’t blame you a miserable bit placing a Double or a Treble

 

Both Teams to Score

  1. Palace v Watford
  2. Southampton v Leicester        £1 Double returns £3
  3. West Ham v Arsenal               £1 Treble returns £5.50

Three more solid looking punts here. 

Fire at will.

Matt Nesbitt

Midweek Preview - Game Week 17

Tuesday, December 12 2017

 

On the twelfth day of Christmas my BadMan gave to me… a full program of Premier League predictions. 

I’ve thrown a Long Shots category into the soup to give us a bit more flexibility.

So you’ll now get Tap-ins which are mainly short-price, for topping up Doubles, Trebles and Accas. Smart Money bets that show you the best value angle of attack. And Long Shots for a punt when we’ve only got scraps to feed on. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots      

Don’t sign up without snaffling up your £100 in free bets with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Tuesday:

Burnley v Stoke City
Burnley have slipped into that ‘Everton’ position – no chance of cracking the Top Six, but well capable of seeing off anybody from 8th down. Five wins from seven and will look forward to playing Stoke – and you never used to be able to say that.      
Tap in: Home Win and 5/4 looks good value. 
Smart Money: Burnley & Under 2.5 Goals at 16/5.
Scorecast:  A fifth 1-0 of the campaign.

Crystal Palace v Watford
Ol’ Clumsy Bastard cost Palace a long overdue win – and us a 4/1 winner – from the spot at the weekend. But will find Watford a tough nut to crack. Three good performances have yielded just a single point. They look good for at least another here.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.
Long Shot: Watford & Both Teams to Score is value at 19/4. 
Scorecast: Another draw that neither wants – 2-2.

Huddersfield v Chelsea
Huddersfield needed Saturday’s win but have picked their battles this season – just 4pts and three goals from six matches v Top Seven - so won’t have scheduled a return form this one. It’s Chelsea that need the win here. 
Tap in: Chelsea win but 2/5 is short.
Smart Money:  Chelsea & Under 3.5 Goals is better at Evens. 
Scorecast: Normal service resumed – 0-2.

Wednesday:
Newcastle United v Everton 
Newcastle’s late OG is the sort of thing that can crush spirits – and take down 3/1 bets, eyes roll. They are teetering on the edge at the moment and Everton will be feeling mischievous after smuggling a point out of Anfield (and pick pocketing a 7/1 winning slip from us). 
Tap in: Everton Draw No Bet at 11/10.
Long Shot: Everton & Both Teams to Score is worth a punt at 11/2.
Scorecast:  A 1-1 won’t be a bad night’s work for both managers. 

Southampton v Leicester City
Southampton get on my bugle, they really do. Were they good, or was it a bit early for Arsenal’s darlings? At least they offer a goal threat with Charlie back in the fold. Leicester are three from three but will have to work harder for anything they get out of this match than at Newcastle. 
Tap in: Both teams to Score at 4/5.
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score looks value at 17/5.
Scorecast: All square 1-1.

Swansea v Man City
Seeing off West Brom probably bought Paul Clement a bit of time, regardless of what happens against City. Losing won’t define their season so a spirited showing will do here. Likewise for City. Expect them to do enough but I suspect the team will be picked with Tottenham on Saturday in mind. 
Smart Money: Man City & Under 3.5 Goals allows 0-3 or another 1-2. 6/5 is fair.
Scorecast: An arms-length-hand-on-head 0-2.

Liverpool v West Brom
West Brom could suffer a backlash here for Liverpool’s custard pie-ing at the weekend. Klopp will be fuming. Lovren, watching.  West Brom’s 0-0 v Palace and listless 1-0 defeat at Swansea will have no doubt delighted the board as they counted out Tony Pulis’ severance pay. 
Tap in: Liverpool to Nil at 10/11.
Long Shot: Correct Score 3-0 at 6/1.  
Scorecast: Err, 3-0.

Man United v Bournemouth
United will be glad to get back on the pitch – and even more pleased that Man City aren't on it. They are as efficient at home to teams below them (seven wins, one goal conceded) as Bournemouth are cannon fodder to Top Half teams (one point from eight games). Liverpool, Chelsea (in the cup) and City up next. Ouch.
Tap in: Man United Win to Nil at Evens.
Long Shot: Correct Score 3-0.
Scorecast: Back in the saddle 3-0.

Tottenham v Brighton
Losing at Huddersfield would’ve sent Brighton reeling a bit. It’s just one point (and one goal) from four matches now and no goals away to Top Half teams. Spurs’ looked back to their old selves against Stoke and more of the same would be a good tune up for City at the weekend. 
Tap in: Tottenham Win to Nil at 10/11.
Long Shot: Three in three Son to be First Scorer is value at 4/1
Scorecast: Threesy does it 3-0

West Ham v Arsenal
After matching Man City for 85 minutes and beating Chelsea, the Hammers will be looking to put a dent or two in the Gunners. Arsenal’s away record is only marginally better than Bournemouth and Brighton, neither of whom would be anywhere near 4/6 favourites to win this.
Tap in: Double Chance West Ham/ Draw has to be taken at 5/4.
Smart Money: West Ham & Both Teams to Score is value at 8/1. 
Scorecast: A fancy Arsenal will summon enough for a point 1-1.

I’ve got tray full of delicious homemade Coupon Busters in the oven. Ready to serve shortly…
   
Matt Nesbitt

TV Guide - Scouse and Manc Derbies

Saturday, December 9 2017

 

Only landed one of four bets from last weekend’s Match Profiles, but it was a satisfying one. Getting a 6/4 return from a Man City home win is like getting four cans of ‘spesh for the price of a bottle of White Lightning.

Let’s have a glug on Super Strength Sunday…

Liverpool v Everton. 2.15 on Sky

There are those who insist on tearing up the formbook when it comes to derbies. Others throw it out the window. Some do both. Then sweep up the pieces and burn them. And bury the charred remains.
I don’t. And here’s why…

  • Everton haven’t won a Merseyside derby since 2011. 12 matches ago. 
  • Liverpool have won six and five have been drawn of the last 11.
  • Liverpool have won seven and drawn one of their matches v teams outside the Top Eight (Everton are currently 10th).
  • Liverpool have scored 38 goals in their last 12 matches. Three per match. 

The formbook told me all that. Never left the house. No black stuff on fingers. 

It will also tell you that Everton have won three on the spin, scoring nine and conceding zip. But I’ll add (in crayon over the top) that West Ham, Huddersfield and Ap Limassol are not a realistic barometer to judge this match. It’s a slamdunk, Badmen.   

The tricky bit is finding value (‘cos those pesky Bookies’ don’t tear up their formbooks). 

We can strike a line through almost all the Home Win options (see below) based on price. But I’ve included a decent punt on Wazza, that will add a bit of enjoyment to watching the match if nothing else.

Tap Ins

  • Home Win at 2/1
  • Liverpool Win to Nil at 6/4
  • Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals at 8/13 
  • Wayne Rooney to have 1+ Shot on Target at 4/5 (Coral #YourCall) 

Big Sam will set Everton up not to get beaten and if they do it well, they could get to half-time level. At a slither less than 3/1 it is juuuust about worth a punt (as we’re struggling for anything else).

Expect Everton to be physical, but Liverpool don’t pick up bookings – and tear-ups are a thing of the past. So we can go low on Cards. Corners are tricky, but I’m banking low based on a tight first hour, a lack of qualify possession for Everton and Liverpool not chasing the game.  

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Liverpool in the HT/ FT at 29/10
  • Liverpool Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 10/3 (Coral #YourCall)
  • Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booking Points at 7/1 (Coral #YourCall)

And now the big one…

Man United v Man City. 4.30pm on Sky.

This is a much trickier nut to crack. Form only tells us so much – United are perfect at home, City perfect away. 

United’s mugging of Arsenal last weekend will have them pumped up, but conceding 75% possession and 16 shots on target won’t produce 3-1 wins very often. City’s first loss of the season in midweek shouldn’t ruffle them too much but they have started to concede a few goals (four in four), which could be an indication they are slowing up a tad.

But I think the context of the game is the key here. City’s eight point lead at the top means a draw would do very nicely thank you. United need to win. 

This doesn’t mean Jose will go gung-ho. Hell no. But he will release the handbrake on the bus in the last 20 minutes or so, if United haven’t been passed to death by then.

(And by the way, this is the only time in your or my lifetime that you will get 9/4 for a Man United Home Win. I’m a little bit tempted purely based on that fact). 

Play this one three times and you could get three different results.

I can't see a lot of goals, but there's no real value in going low. But I’m not going to get drawn into a prediction – other than I don’t expect it to be a classic. It would just be a guess.

Instead I’m going to speculate on value and add a bit of flavour to the spectacle with a couple of long range efforts…   

Tap Ins

  • Under 3.5 Goals at 4/11
  • First Half Result: Draw at 11/10

Long Shots

  • Draw/ Draw in the Half-time/ Full-time at 17/4
  • Draw/ Man United at 6/1

Hey. Phew. Rock n roll.

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 16

Friday, December 8 2017

 

A tidy three from six in last week’s Coupon Busters, tucking a sweaty 6pts profit in our top pockets. 

But before you spend it all on Spice, let’s see if we can reinvest a bit of it pulling the bookies’ pants down again this weekend. 

Eyes down…

Match Results

  1. Liverpool to beat Everton
  2. Arsenal to beat Southampton
  3. Tottenham to beat Stoke
  4. Chelsea to beat West Ham             £1 Fourfold returns £4.75

 

  1. Brighton to beat Huddersfield
  2. West Brom to beat Swansea
  3. Palace to beat Bournemouth         £2 Trixie returns £19.50 (any two returns £3)

                    
I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to place the Fourfold as two Doubles. All have got a slightly streaky element about them, whether it’s the local derby factor or the moodiness of the North London pair at the mo. But all should win. 

I’ve also dropped a little Trixie into the mixie. Which for the uncircumcised is actually four bets in one – three Doubles and a Treble. Your stake is multiplied by four, so this is a 50p bet x 4 = £2 total stake.

They are three big value wins that could all land with a stiff tailwind. But it’s a punt. So rather taking on the Treble, or picking out a Double I thought we’d make our underpants fireproof with a Trixie. Any two gives us a return. 

Draws

  1. Burnley v Watford 
  2. Newcastle v Leicester 
  3. Man United v Man City             £2 Trixie returns £32.96 (any two returns £5)
  4. Huddersfield v Brighton           £1.10 Yankee returns £25.68 (any three returns £4.67)

And for these fab four draws I’ve turned it up to 11. A Yankee is 11 bets in one – six Doubles, four Trebles and a Fourfold. A 10p bet x 11 = £1.10 total stake. Any two gets out money back, three and we’re laughing. All four and we’re exposing our breasts.  

Both Teams to Score

  1. Tottenham v Stoke
  2. Newcastle v Leicester                    £1 returns £3.52
  3. Burnley v Watford                          £1 returns £6.90
  4. Palace v Bournemouth                  £1 returns £13.13

         
Here I really like the Double. Compelling stats bullied me into the Treble. And my guts made me add the Fourfold. I’ve kept the £1 marker, but wouldn’t call you any rude names if you scaled your stakes down relative to the odds. 

Oh, and don’t forget Super Dooper Sunday. In the red corners, Liverpool and Man United. In the blue corners, Everton and Man City.

My Match Profiles will help turn it all to green. 

On site noonish on Saturday. 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 16

Thursday, December 7 2017

 

I'll be performing a full cavity search on the Scouse and Manc derbies in this week's Match Profiles - look out for the post on Saturday morning. But here's a quick frisk of the rest of the weekend coupon... 

Tap-ins are, well, exactly that. Short prices so keep them for topping up your Doubles, Trebles and Accas. 

The Smart Money bets guide you to pickpocketing a bit of value from the Bookies.

And the Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky's Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots.

Colossus will give you £10 in free bets if you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Saturday:
West Ham v Chelsea
Getting to within seven minutes of an unlikely point at Man City will have the Hammers pumped up, but I suspect they will feel the pressure at home. Especially when the visitors have only dropped four points on the road all season.
Tap in: Chelsea Win but too short at 1/2.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals is much more like it at 14/5.
Scorecast:  0-1 will do for the Blues.

Burnley v Watford
By now Burnley will expect points from a match like this, but have played all the Bottom Six now and need to start scoring more than one at a time. Watford probably deserved more than one point from their last two v Spurs and Man United. And do their best work on the road.  
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 6/10, but…
Smart Money: ...Both Teams to Score is better at Evens. 
Scorecast: Not much between these two - 1-1.

Crystal Palace v Bournemouth
Only one defeat in six is progress for Palace, but just seven points won suggests it’s slow. Another two goals here – like in their previous four home matches, should take the points. Bournemouth have Man United, City and Liverpool after this so must leave with something.
Tap in: First Half Under 1.5 Goals at 1/3 – but just for Multiples.
Smart Money:  Draw/ Palace is the best value home win option at 15/4.
Scorecast: Fancy Palace to nick it 2-1.

Huddersfield v Brighton
The top flite looks to have caught up with both of these in the last month or so. Huddersfield look on the verge of a tailspin to me and don’t look capable of more than a goal a game at home. Brighton are tidy v teams below them, taking 14 points from a possible 21 so far.
Tap in: Brighton Draw No Bet at Evens.
Smart Money: Brighton & Under 3.5 Goals is value at 12/5.
Scorecast:  Brighton in slightly better fettle. 0-1 

Swansea v West Brom
Not sure which is worse – six defeats in seven, one goal in five, or three home blanks in a row. Either way, Swansea are in the shit. Three decent West Brom showings has yielded just three points. One half decent one here will take three.  
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals is short at 4/9 but looks nailed on.
Smart Money: 12/5 for West Brom & Under 3.5 Goals appeals.
Scorecast: It won’t be pretty. 0-1.

Tottenham v Stoke City
Spurs can put the Champions League hoopla away until February and get back on track here. They are efficient against Bottom Half teams (W8 D2) but the absence of Davinson Sanchez will encourage Stoke. The Potters have only failed to score once on the road this season. Might need a couple here though.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 10/11
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Both teams to Score is easily the best home win option at 9/5.
Scorecast: Fragile Spurs to come out firing. 3-1.

Newcastle United v Leicester City
Just one point from five matches has Newcastle teetering on the brink of their next crisis. Firing three blanks in their five home matches against teams above them is part of their problem.  Keeping out a rejuvenated Vardy and Mahrez will be another. Leicester are unbeaten in five on the road.  
Tap in: Leicester Draw No Bet at Evens.
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4.  
Scorecast: A desmond - 2-2.

Sunday:
Southampton v Arsenal
Arsenal’s away form barely puts them into the Top Half of the table. But Southampton seem to have decided on they can and can’t beat, which doesn’t include Top Eight teams – just one goal to show from five matches so far, so fancy Arsenal to pass them to death.
Tap in: Arsenal First Team to Score 7/10.
Smart Money: Arsenal & Under 3.5 Goals is tidy at 21/5.
Scorecast: Steady as she goes 0-2.

Liverpool v Everton 
I hope Big Sam has enjoyed the ego massage of home wins against West Ham and Huddersfield, because it’s almost over. And there will be no happy ending at Anfield. Unless he’s one of those types that like a good hiding. In a German accent.  Now, where was I? Oh yeah, Liverpool win.
Tap in: Home  Win – but not at 2/7, thank you very much.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win to Nil is short at 6/5.  So let’s have a punt on Liverpool Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Over 10.5 Corners & Under 55.5 Booing Points at 15/2 (via Coral’s #YourCall) 
Scorecast: Liverpool like a 3-0. 

Man United v Man City
Ooh, now then. A title decider in December! Well, only if City win it. Don’t suppose City’s first defeat of the campaign midweek will bother them, but they have been conceding a few goals lately (five in four games). United will need at least one to get anything. And another worldie or two from David De Gea, I suspect.
Tap in: Over 10.5 cliches during Sky’s coverage.
Smart Money: The Draw & Under 2.5 Goals is value at 7/2.
Scorecast: A third 0-0 in five meetings.

My Coupon Busters should be along about noon on Friday. 

Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Things we learned at the weekend

Tuesday, December 5 2017

 

Value is value…

Over the years, many people have asked me what is the secret to successful betting. Normally, because I’m bloody hilarious, I will answer, ‘picking winners’. Then I’ll get serious and say, ‘but seriously…’ and say this…

Betting at odds bigger than the actual chance of something is the only way you will make money. As an answer it’s not as satisfying as something definitive like: ‘Trap one, first race at the dogs. Guaranteed…’ or ‘double your stake after every loser…’ or ‘French horses can’t win the National…’ – all of which I’ve heard.  Usually with absolute conviction. And always by idiots. Because it’s all bollocks. 

Trap one greyhounds don’t always win race one. Chasing losses by doubling stakes is likely to render homeless. And Mon Mome, 2009.    

So, unless you can back a winner every time (and you can’t. Trust me, I’ve spent 20 years proving it). Your best – actually, only – route is to back value. That is, a price bigger than the chances of something actually happening.

Take Man City v West Ham. On Sunday night the waistbands of spangling under-panted pole dancers all over Gibraltar will have been stretched to busting with the proceeds of losing Man City Win to Nil and Man City Match Handicap and HT/ FT bets. All at criminally short prices.  

Go steady, when you go short Badmen. Hope you were on the recommended City & Both Teams to Score at 6/4.  That’s how we do things round these parts.

Big Sam isn’t the Messiah…

Two wins and two clean sheets is just what Everton needed. In truth, a new manager with a big personality was probably pretty high on the list. But I’d suggest that home matches against West Ham and Huddersfield were pretty handily timed too.

West Ham will feel better after taking City the distance, but are in a bit of a state – and I’m hearing solid whispers about Sakho and Lanzini-sized holes that will need filling in January. And Huddersfield have now managed 630 minutes without a goal on their travels. 

So I’m expecting a few more miles of bad road before Big Sam restores them to the dour mid-table status that will have fans calling for his head this time next year.

A new brush doesn’t always sweep clean…

In Thursday’s Weekend Preview I put: 
Two teams with better days ahead, but this is still a six-pointer. Palace are edging steadily towards an away goal but the Baggies will be on best behaviour for Pardew’s first match. A month ago it was a banker 0-0, now I’m not sure. 

And predicted a home win, with both teams scoring. So what happens? 0-0, of course.

Frankly, West Brom don’t deserve a boost to their season. Is anybody excited by the appointment of Alan Pardew, apart from Alan? 

All the talk of wanting more expansive football… having their best squad for 25 years (what even better than the Paul Scharner and Graham Dorrans days…?! Phew, that’s big talk, Baggies!)… taking the club forward, blah blah blah boing boing. Then they appoint a manager whose career has been defined by doing a shit dance when his team looked like they might win a match. But didn’t. 

And he had the brass balls to call Manuel Pellegrini a cunt. Some people…

Fergie time is well and truly up…

Man United’s counter punching victory at Arsenal while spending most of the match on the ropes was their most Mourinho performance yet. And that’s good news – hear me out… It might not always be great to watch, but it’s great to bet on. 

Last minute goals are our enemy. For every one you collect on, there are a dozen torn up betting slips. 

Coming up this week:

Thursday: Weekend matches previewed
Friday: Your weekend Coupon Busters
Saturday: Your TV guide to cashing in on Super Dooper Sunday. 

Matt Nesbitt

TV Guide - Chelsea v Newcastle, Man City v West Ham

Saturday, December 2 2017

 

I had planned to cover Arsenal v Man United, but then changed my mind. Just like that. I’m mad, me.

Instead we’ve got a bit of this…

Chelsea v Newcastle. 12.30pm on Sky Sports.

Now, I will always be led by numbers – but context is key. For instance, these two are pegged level in their last 13 matches. Five wins apiece and three draws. And I’ve seen betting slips tear themselves up after good, really good Chelsea teams have been turned over by bang average Newcastle teams. But…

Chelsea will win this match. They’ve been pretty efficient at home – opening day and Man City defeats can be overlooked. And they been very efficient against Bottom Half teams, home and away – five wins to nil and one defeat to Palace. Fly. Ointment. But I can overlook that too.

With Man City almost out of sight, a bun fight is developing for the bridesmaid spots. With Arsenal and Man United squabbling over three points this weekend – and probably ending up with just one apiece – and Tottenham having an identity crisis. This could be a good weekend for Chelsea and they won’t let this match slide by without maximum points. 

Newcastle will know that their next two matches – at home to Leicester and Everton – are where the points are, not here. Plus, Chelsea have got Champions League business on Tuesday, so don’t expect many 50/50 tackles in the last 20 minutes. 

I’m expecting this match to be won by 75 minutes and attention to drift elsewhere. Less goals, less corners, less cards. And this is how I propose cashing in…

Tap Ins

  • Home Win but no, no, NO at 1/4. 
  • Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals. This gives us up to 3-0 and even a squeaky 2-1. At 11/10 it’s not just a bigger price, but better value than the Win to Nil (19/20). 

Long Shots

  • Coral are paying 8/1 for Chelsea Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points in their #YourCall section.

 

We’ve got the same sort of deal with Man City at home to West Ham…

Man City v West Ham. 4pm on Sky.

Now then... I watch Karen Brady every week on The Apprentice, scowling at the poor clowns making bad decisions and cocking things up. She doesn't suffer fools, this lady. 

And I'll level with you - the bitch-slapping she hands out during the final interview process has made my balls disappear up inside my body, more than once. Brutal, I tells ya.

And then she sits on the panel that hires David Moyes? I’m getting mixed messages, Karen. So, with regret – you’re fired.

Anyway, to business…

Like the previous, we will take it as a given that City will win. They will. So the question is how. 

The complacency of an eight point lead, an upcoming Champions League assignment and their ability to pull 90-somethingth minute rabbits out of any orifice you care to name is our enemy here. 

Home wins are evenly split between 'To Nil's and otherwise. With just one clean sheet from seven matches v Botton Half teams, compared to six from seven matches v the Top Half.

Plus, we’ve got to factor in the fact that West Ham will play with complete freedom against the division’s Harlem Globetrotters. They are allowed to lose this one.

There might even be one or two (or 15) players that thinking ‘shop window’. All of which means it won't necessarily be the arse-raping that one might expect. 

So, after tapping all that info into the machine and punching the big green button – this is how I’m playing…   

Tap Ins

  • City Win to Nil is 4/5…
  • City (-1) Match Handicap is 2/7…
  • City (-2) Match Handicap is 3/4…
  • Half-time/ Full-time City/ City is 4/9… and they might well all win. But I’m swerving the lot.

Long Shots

  • City Win & Both Teams to Score pays.6/4. Yes, that's odds-against Badmen. 
  • Coral are paying 6/1 on Man City to Win, Both Teams to Score: YES, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points in their #YourCall section

Play nice. And I'll be back up in your grill on Tuesday with some musings from the weekend.

Matt Nesbitt

 

 

Coupon Busters - Game Week 15

Friday, December 1 2017

 

Oriol Romeu… Josh King… Jonny Evans’ arse… Three reasons we weren’t celebrating a clean sweep of Coupon Busters in the week. But I know where they all live. And I’ve got Liam Neeson’s number.

So we’ll go again, shall we…

Match Results

  1. Chelsea to beat Newcastle
  2. Man City to beat West Ham
  3. Liverpool to beat Brighton                                  £1 Treble returns £2.10
  4. Everton to beat Huddersfield        
  5. Stoke to beat Swansea                                      £1 Five-fold returns £7.00

Another nailed-on Treble, but you don’t need me to tell you that (although double your money is not to be flicked the Vs at). Adding the on-the-up Everton might tempt you in, but for a wild card I’d go straight to the five-way at 6/1


Win To Nil

  1. Chelsea to beat Newcastle
  2. Man City to beat West Ham                                   £1 Double returns £3.60
  3. Stoke to beat Swansea                                          £1 Treble returns £11.00

City let us down in midweek, but doubling them with Chelsea has to be backed. There are others to consider – you can make a case for Everton, Liverpool, even West Brom – but based on value, Stoke get the nod.


Both Teams to Score

  1. Watford v Tottenham
  2. Arsenal v Man United                                       £1 Double returns £3.00
  3. Brighton v Liverpool
  4. West Brom v Crystal Palace                            £1 Double returns £12.00

        
The only one I would bet my kidneys on is Watford v Spurs. But Jose can’t go to Arsenal looking for a 0-0 – and Arsenal are well capable of spoiling those plans anyway, forcing United to start the bus. Brighton have got a goal – and Liverpool a slip – in them and I’ve got a fancy for West Brom and Palace to throw off the shackles. At 11/1 I’ll have a nibble on that.

That’s where my paper round money is going this weekend. 

But I’ve also got my eye on a few pearlers in the Arsenal v Man United and Man City v West Ham matches. So once I’ve emptied a few charity boxes, I’ll be back with a couple of Match Profiles.
    
At ease.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 15

Thursday, November 30 2017


More David Moyes than Pep Guardiola this week. 

Just four Tap Ins and two Smart Money bets to cheer (or swear repeatedly to yourself about). 

But you can’t keep a good man down. Or a BadMan. 

The Tap Ins are mostly short-price best employed topping up Doubles, Trebles and Accas. Smart Money bets aim to pick the bookies pockets, placing the bets they’d rather you didn’t. 
The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots   

(Your first £100 with Colossus is on me if you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4).

Have a bang on this…

Saturday:

Chelsea v Newcastle
Honours are even between these two in the last 13 meetings, believe it or not (both W5 D3). But Newcastle’s two points from a possible 27 v teams outside the Bottom Five so far is more helpful. As you were. 
Tap in: Chelsea Win – but swerve the 1/4.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 21/20.
Scorecast: No slip ups. 2-0.

Brighton v Liverpool
A case of a resistible force v a moveable object. Brighton don’t score against Top Half teams, Liverpool have only managed one clean sheet away. Chock full of goals though. Only failed to score 3+ once in their last seven (all comps).
Tap in: Liverpool Win but 1/2 is too short.
Smart Money: Liverpool/ Liverpool HT/FT is a much better 27/20.
Scorecast:. No one has put three past Brighton yet. 0-2.

Everton v Huddersfield
Big Sam (and Lil Wayne) might have already rescued Everton’s mid-table ambitions. To be fair, at home to West Ham was a good place to stop the rot. At home to Huddersfield is a good place to mount a recovery. No goals in five of their six away games.
Tap in: Everton Win but 4/6?? Pff!
Smart Money:  Not sure I trust Everton To Nil. So Under 3.5 Goals it is at 13/10.
Scorecast: A more competitive than you think 2-1.

Leicester v Burnley
Only Man City and Chelsea are currently better on the road than Burnley – but try getting 15/4 on those two away at Leicester! The Foxes play to their level – they win at home and draw away to teams outside the Top Six and lose the rest. Burnley are border line, but can’t see them beaten here.
Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at 9/4.
Smart Money: Burnley Win & Under 3.5 Goals is a big value 9/4. 
Scorecast:  A draw wouldn't offend anyone.1-1. 

Stoke v Swansea
This is a must win for Stoke. And Swansea. But neither can be trusted. All of Stoke’s home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals so far, six of Swansea’s seven have stayed Under.  Hmm. 
Tap in: No gimmes here. 
Smart Money: But Stoke Win & Over 2.5 Goals is good value at 23/10.
Scorecast: 3-1 will do it.

Watford v Tottenham 
Watford do their best work on the road but have hit at least two in eight of their last nine outings. Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten (all comps). Not a lot of value in a Spurs win after three away defeats on the spin. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6. 
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Both teams to Score is just about worth it at 11/5.  
Scorecast: Tight, but Tottenham need this. 2-3.

West Brom v Crystal Palace
Two teams with better days ahead, but this is still a six-pointer. Palace are edging steadily towards an away goal but the Baggies will be on best behaviour for Pardew’s first match. A month ago it was a banker 0-0, now I’m not sure. So…
Tap in: Taking a watching brief.  
Smart Money: The Draw/ West Brom HT/FT is value at 17/4.  
Scorecast: A tight squeak but 2-1.

Arsenal v Man United
Arsenal are 100% at home but have only played one Top Seven team. United have lost three of their last foru away, but have the muscle if not the form to get something. An Arsenal win will all but hand the title to City. A United win will put it off a week.    
Tap in: Arsenal Draw No Bet at 8/11.
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4.
Scorecast: Just what Pep wants - 1-1.

Sunday:
Bournemouth v Southampton
This could easily be a Championship match and I, for one, wouldn’t give two monkeys. Don’t really see the point of either team. The sooner that Eddie Howe moves on, takes Callum Wilson with him, and Liverpool buy Southampton wholesale, the better. There, I said it.
Tap in: I'm not playing. 
Smart Money: Still not. 
Scorecast: I dunno. Probably a draw or something. 1-1?

Man City v West Ham
It’s probably a bit unfair to judge David Moyes after just three matches. But the next three are this one, Chelsea and Arsenal so it might actually be favourable. So here goes. Ahem. Shite. The only thing that can slow up City now is the sort of mucking about that let West Brom and Stoke score twice.
Tap in: Nothing worth our while.  
Smart Money: Man City Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 8/5.
Scorecast: Both would take a 3-0 right now.

There'll be coupon busting selection of Coupon Busters right here first thing Friday monring. Followed by Match Profiles of Arsenal v Man United and Man City v West Ham on Saturday. 

Go now. But come back then. Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Midweek Coupon Busters - Game Week 14

Wednesday, November 29 2017


Our chips had a good dousing of urine over the weekend, mainly due to Tottenham turning up five minutes late for the West Brom match. And Jordan Pickford turning up at Southampton without his hands. 

So we owe the bookies a good hiding. You hold him, I’ll hit him with these midweek multiples…

Match Results

  1. Arsenal to beat Huddersfield
  2. Chelsea to beat Swansea
  3. Man City to beat Southampton                       £1 Treble returns £1.75
  4. West Brom to beat Newcastle                        £1 Four-fold returns £4.25

The Treble looks nailed on – I take no credit for it, but it is what it is. But to make it pay I prefer adding an odds-against West Brom into the mix rather than Tottenham or Man United. Both odds-on and both away to tricky customers. 


Win To Nil

  1. Man City to beat Southampton
  2. Chelsea to beat Swansea                              £1 Double returns £3.60
  3. West Brom to beat Newcastle                        £1 Treble returns £12.82

I’d be quite happy to settle for a City and Chelsea double, especially as the Baggies could have relieved themselves all over the Treble before they even take to the field. But if West Brom win, it is just as likely to be To Nil. So 12/1 (ish) is value.     


Under 2.5 Goals

  1. West Brom v Newcastle    
  2. Bournemouth v Burnley                                £1 Double returns £2.80

        
Gary Megson will trust WBA’s defenders more than their forwards to secure the points – and I’m not sure Newcastle have got a goal in them anyway. Burnley love a low scorer and have suffocated better teams this season.
    
I’ll be at it again on Thursday, with a preview of the weekend fixtures followed by more Coupon Busters on Friday. Then I’ll be gloving up and getting stuck into Saturday’s TV double bill of Chelsea v Newcastle and Arsenal v Man United.

Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Midweek Preview - Game Week 14

Tuesday, November 28 2017

 

There’s a full midweek program for us to get our grubby mitts on. 

The weekend saw 7/10 Tap-ins and 5/10 Smart Money bets landed – delivering 8.82pts profit if you’re counting. 

We had 6/10 correct match results – enough to win you £5,000 or so with Colossus over tonight and tomorrow (your first £100 is on me with this code: RAFMTS5UU4).

And just the one Scorecast. Which is no good to anyone. 

Must do better...

Tuesday:
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Brighton have picked up 14pts from a possible 18 against Bottom Seven teams. Palace haven’t scored on the road yet, so it looks a nailed on home win. But I think Palace are on the up.
Tap in: Wilfried Zaha to have 1+ shot on target 4/5 with Coral.
Smart Money: Both Teams to Score at 21/20.
Scorecast: Fancy Palace just might sneak a 1-1

Leicester City v Tottenham
Leicester haven’t taken a single point from five matches against Top Six teams. Tottenham look happier away from trembly Wembley. 100% v Teams outside the Top Four, none conceded.
Tap in: Away Win at 8/11.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win to Nil at 21/10.
Scorecast: Spurs back in the saddle. 0-2.

Watford v Man United
Most of Watford’s best work has been done on the road, but they will remember out-muscling United here last season. Just 5pts from the last five away matches for Mourinho.  
Tap in: Result after 30 minutes – Draw at 4/6.
Smart Money:  Man United Win, Over 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 6/1 with Coral
Scorecast: United cannot afford not to win this. 0-1

West Brom v Newcastle United
Albion are on the up. To be fair they haven’t been far short all season and no doubt boosted by rattling Spurs. Newcastle are in a tail spin. Can’t see where the next clean sheet is coming from. 
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 4/7.
Smart Money: West Brom Win & Under 2.5 Goals at 16/5.
Scorecast:  Corner turned. 2-0. 

Wednesday:

Arsenal v Huddersfield
Arsenal tend to do just enough at home, but are quietly building a head of steam. Huddersfield are 540 minutes without a goal on the road and Sunday will have taken a bit out of them. 
Tap in: Home Win but don’t you dare at 1/5. 
Smart Money: Draw/ Arsenal HT/ FT is the value pick at 14/5.
Scorecast: Another 2-0.

Bournemouth v Burnley
Two form teams. Bournemouth are four wins from six and haven’t conceded in three. Burnley have been better than Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal away from home so far.
Tap in: Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13.
Smart Money: Draw & Both to Score is value at 18/5. 
Scorecast: Not a lot between these. 1-1.

Chelsea v Swansea
Chelsea are starting to motor. They begin a run of eight very winnable looking matches tonight. Can’t say the same for Swansea.  
Tap in: Home Win but don’t bother at 2/11.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals at Evens is more like it.
Scorecast: Chelsea’s sloppiness tells me 2-1.

Everton v West Ham
The threat of Big Sam and the visit from Dull David won’t help anybody’s mood at Goodison.  West Ham have got Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal up next so need something here. Not out of the question. 
Tap in: West Ham Draw No Bet at 6/5.
Smart Money: West Ham Win to Nil is value at 17/4. 
Scorecast: Oh go on then 1-2.

Man City v Southampton 
Fancy City to win this one. No, really. Southampton have only scored once in six matches past teams outside the Bottom Seven so far. 
Tap in: Home Win but not at 2/11.  
Smart Money: City Win & Under 3.5 Goals is much better at 13/10.
Scorecast: City haven’t won 3-0 yet this season.

Stoke v Liverpool
Stoke tend to fair better against better teams – four of their six defeats have been by Bottom Eight teams. Liverpool guarantee goals. At both ends. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.
Smart Money: If you fancy a big price swerve ball, the Stoke Win , Both Teams to Score, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points  pays 16/1 with Coral.
Scorecast: Stoke away on a Wednesday night? 1-1.
 

A serving of Coupon Busters will be along later. Oh yeah. 

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 13

Monday, November 27 2017


Everton are bang in trouble…

Many fans are calling for David Unsworth to carry on as caretaker at Goodison. Not caretaker manager, just caretaker. The toilet rolls are getting a bit low and the car park could do with a sweep.

The man himself said ‘Things have to change’ after the match. Careful what you wish for, David.  

I fell flat on my arse banking on Everton’s away trip to go Under 3.5 Goals, costing us a winning five-fold that would’ve taken the Coupon Busters into profit. After getting hit for five by that Italian pub team on Thursday, I figured damage limitation might be in the thinking. First choice Pickford was back in goal, but now they have two keepers with a dose of net rash. 

It’s not over until it’s over…

And even then it’s not over. After three winners and a fat 7.67pts profit from the Chelsea v Liverpool match, I was loving the look of Huddersfield v City on 80 minutes. We needed a City goal and another corner to land our 4/1 #YourCall bet with Coral. 

City scored the late winner – standard. But the absent corner didn’t matter in the end because Ref Craig Pawson (very poor, son) suddenly got busy with the cards. And didn’t stop at the final whistle, with Huddersfield’s van La Parra copping for a Red one as he got in his car. 

The players tried to cover their mouths as they left the pitch, but Leroy Sane was seen to say ‘That’s fucked my BadMan bets’. 

Although it could actually be over on December 10th…

Being the best league in the world (copyright Sky, BT, BBC, etc.) it couldn’t possibly be done and dusted by Christmas, could it. Could it? 

Hmm, whisper it but it could be as soon December 10th. Unless United can but the brakes on City at Old Trafford, their increasingly noisy neighbours will leave it the Theatre of Pipe Dreams for at least another season.

Already it looks from here as the only thing that can undo City is City. By being a bit, well, City. Neither United, Chelsea or Tottenham look capable of reeling them in. And Arsenal can’t even be trusted to be the least reliable team in the Premier League these days, with Liverpool’s bipolar back four.      

United head the Without City betting at 13/10, with Chelsea next at 5/2. Tottenham look the value at 6/1. If they can sort out their defence…

Tottenham are not the finished article…

Tottenham’s emergence as a top team over the last couple of seasons has been largely built on a defence as solid as Kate and Gerry’s.

But they have managed just one clean sheet in their last nine (a less than spectacular W4 D2 L3). Compared to six from the eight before that (a spectacular W7 D1).

Alderweireld is a big miss – although it is not doing his ongoing contract negotiations any harm at all. He is a loss at the back and in midfield, with Dier having to be dragged in to the back three/ four (or three, then four, then three, then two at home to West Brom at the weekend). 

But if Spurs are serious about playing with the big boys, they need to get a tag on Daniel Levy before he disappears into his underground bunker for the duration of the January window.

Coming up this week:

Tuesday and Wednesday: Midweek matches previewed and Coupon Busters
Thursday: Weekend matches previews
Friday: Your weekend Coupon Busters
Saturday: Your TV guide to cashing in on Chelsea v Newcastle and Arsenal v Man United

Matt Nesbitt

Match Profiles - Your Weekend TV Guide

Saturday, November 25 2017

 

I don’t know how these things work, but Liverpool v Chelsea got the nod over Crystal Palace v Stoke and Swansea v Bournemouth for Saturday’s TV match. So that’s where we start…


Liverpool v Chelsea. 5.30pm on BT Sport

I’m a stats man. It should always be the first and is often the best place to look. After all, if you knew something happened nine times out of ten, you’d bet on it wouldn’t you?

However, I don’t fancy Liverpool to keep a fifth clean sheet on the spin. Chelsea’s big balls swing lower than the three pub teams (Southampton, Mirabor and Huddersfield) and the impotent Man United that Klopp’s lot kept out. That’s without even mentioning the midweek butchering in Seville. Oh.

Plus, only Man City have been better than Chelsea on the road so far. Two away goals is standard. And they’re three without conceding. History tells us that 11 of the last 12 Premier League meetings have seen goals at both ends and half of them have been draws. So here’s the juice…

Tap ins

  • Both Teams to Score looks nailed-on, but 4/7 is of little interest. 
  • The Draw has to be worth a look. But it’s not going to finish 0-0, so swerve the 13/5 in favour of 13/4 on the Draw & Both Teams to Score.   

Long Shots

  • Backing the Draw/ Draw in the Half-time/ Full-time market will push your return up to 19/4 (that’s a smidge under 5/1 in old money).
  • Coral are paying 4/1 for Both Teams to Score, Under 11.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points in their #YourCall section.

 

Moving on to Sunday, Southampton v Everton looks dreadful so let’s try to dredge a bit of value out of Man City shall we…? 

Huddersfield v Man City. 4pm on Sky

Huddersfield are two for two at home, including City’s not so noisy neighbours. But with City in their current mood, it’s all about how they approach the match. And how we approach the win markets. 

They are 100% on the road so far, conceding just three goals. Both to Bottom Half teams. Pep’s missing precious Stones could make them a bit vulnerable and I suspect bigger challenges to come might mean a certain amount of cruise control. So I’m ducking the clean sheet options and playing like this…

Tap Ins

  • Man City (-1) Goal Handicap at 8/15 and City/ City Half-time/ Full-time at 4/6 look the best alternatives to the Away Win. 

Long Shots

  • Coral are paying 4/1 on Man City to Win, Over 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points in their #YourCall section.

Have a gargle on that.

Matt Nesbitt

 

Coupon Busters - Game Week 13

Friday, November 24 2017

 

I like big bets and I cannot lie.

So this is where we try to pull the bookies' pants down with the best of the weekend’s Doubles, Trebles and Accas.

Brace yourself…


Match Results

  1. Man United to beat Brighton
  2. Tottenham to beat West Brom
  3. Man City to beat Huddersfield                     £1 Treble returns £1.89
  4. Bournemouth to beat Swansea                   £1 Four-fold returns £5.19
  5. Watford to beat Newcastle                          £1 Five-fold returns £18.25

The Treble is a gimme. Anything less than a home win for United and Spurs would be a disaster and Man City are going to win every match, right? And the boat race. And X-Factor.

Bournemouth are on a run of six good performances and four wins. Swansea aren’t. Watford are a bit more of a swerve-ball, but are full of muscle and goals at the mo. Newcastle aren’t. 


Win To Nil

  1. Man United to beat Brighton
  2. Tottenham to beat West Brom              £1 Double returns £3.18
  3. Man City to beat Huddersfield              £1 Treble returns £5.94

United’s midweek mugging is good news for clean sheet backers. The absence of Lindelof will be even better. Likewise, only a bit of player posing or another Bambi moment can cost us in the other two.

Chucking in Bournemouth and even Southampton could be punt-worthy, at chump change stakes. Pumping up the jam to 27/1 and 16/1 respectively. All five pays a technotronic 75/1.


Both Teams to Score

  1. West Ham v Leicester
  2. Liverpool v Chelsea                   £1 Double returns £2.90

If you only place one bet this week, I’d suggest this is it. With David Moyes in the hot seat, the Hammers will be keen to impress… other managers. The Transfer Window is just six weeks away, no time to lose. And Leicester have no trouble scoring v teams outside the Top Six. 

Only one of the last 12 meetings between Liverpool and Chelsea hasn’t paid out at BTTS. Back when Mohammed Salah was a Chelsea player. And jockey Michael Owen was still a footballer.  

Under 2.5 Goals

  1. Southampton v Everton
  2. Burnley v Arsenal                        £1 Double returns £3.79

Not sure you would trust even lending a goal to Southampton or Everton at the moment. And David Unsworth won’t want another drubbing in (surely) his last game. Burnley’s home fans have only witnessed two goals once all season. Arsenal’s five at Everton masks a shocking away return of just seven. I fancy this.


Under 3.5 Goals

  1. Southampton v Everton
  2. Burnley v Arsenal
  3. Tottenham v West Brom                        £1 Treble returns £2.65
  4. Swansea v Bournemouth
  5. Newcastle v Watford                              £1 Five-fold returns £4.20

I don’t usually fiddle with the Under 3.5s, but it looks like it could be a barren weekend. Particularly on Sunday, so this might help make it a bit more interesting. 

I’ll be back on Monday with another stream of excuses. But before that, there’s a couple of Match Profiles in the pipeline: Liverpool v Chelsea and Huddersfield v Man City.

Don’t touch that dial. 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 13

Thursday, November 23 2017

 

Is it me, or is this weekend as dull as it gets in the Premier League? Apart from Liverpool v Chelsea, perhaps.

 

Anyway, the Tap-ins are exactly that.  Most will be short-price only really any good for topping up Doubles, Trebles and Accas. You’ll get my pick of the best in Friday’s Coupon Busters post.

The Smart Money bets show you the best way to squeeze the bookies’ pips for a bit of value. 

The Scorecasts are for tackling things like Sky’s Super 6 £250k or Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots   

And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

You’re welcome.


West Ham v Leicester
David Moyes can expect a reaction from his first week in charge. But it might not be the one he wants. Leicester are handy away to mid/ lower table fodder – three draws and win so far.  
Tap in: Leicester Double Chance at 4/9
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4
Scorecast: A Desmond - 2-2.  

Crystal Palace v Stoke City
Roy has restored a bit of faith at home (W1 D2) and could resurrect Christ-ian almighty this weekend. Still don’t know what to make of Stoke this season. Apart from a loss.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 10/11
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 7/2
Scorecast: Four 2-2 draws between them in their last five. 1-1 it is. 

Man United v Brighton
United are better than City. At home. So far. Brighton have won their last two on the road but are yet to find the net against a team outside the Bottom Seven. Looks like another bullying. 
Tap in: Home Win but don’t you dare at 1/5. 
Smart Money: Win to Nil or Utd/ Utd in the HT/FT market. Both 4/6 
Scorecast: Can’t keep hitting 4s. 3-0.

Newcastle United v Watford
Just one point and two goals v teams outside the Bottom Seven for Toon so far. And they’re missing some much needed muscle.  Watford are revelling their Top Eight status and have scored twice in every away game.
Tap in: Watford Over 0.5 Goals at 4/9
Smart Money: Watford & Under 3.5 Goals at 13/4
Scorecast:  0-1. No, 0-2. No, 0-1

Swansea v Bournemouth
Five defeats on the bounce (and seven from eight) has got the Swans in a tailspin. Firing seven blanks in 12 matches is as big a worry as Bournemouth’s current upswing.  
Tap in: Bournemouth Draw No Bet at 4/5
Smart Money: The Away Win looks decent at 17/10. Bournemouth Win To Nil even better at 17/5.
Scorecast: One will do v Swansea, so 0-1.

Tottenham v West Brom

A trip to Wembley with no manager might be just what Albion need after a punishing couple of months. Shame Tottenham will be there all pumped up on Champions League bonuses.
Tap in: Home Win, but 1/4 can fuck off. Especially when…
Smart Money: …Tottenham & Under 3.5 Goals will double your money at Evens.
Scorecast: At a canter 2-0

Liverpool v Chelsea
Liverpool are on a run of four clean sheets at home. But you have to fancy Chelsea to wipe their arses on it come Saturday teatime. They like a draw these two – six in the last 12 – and neither would turn their nose up.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/7
Smart Money: The Draw & Both Teams to Score pays 13/4. 
Scorecast: If it’s level after 70 mins, both will settle for 1-1.

Southampton v Everton
Southampton never seem to beat anybody, but survive on their efficiency against the Bottom Third. Everton are treading water until they buy a new manager, but it must feel shit.  
Tap in: Pfft! The smart move here is to put your money behind a bar somewhere. That hasn’t got Sky.
Smart Money: There’s a bit of value in the Draw/ Southampton HT/ FT at 17/5.
Scorecast: Saints could edge it 1-0.

Burnley v Arsenal
Only goal difference separates the teams. Burney have won their last three and conceded just twice at home all season. Meanwhile, Arsenal have lost four from six on the road (W1 D1), failing to score in three of them. So naturally they start 8/15 favourites… 
Tap in: Burnley (+1) Match Handicap at 8/15. Same price as the Arsenal win, folks.
Smart Money: Burnley & Under 2.5 Goals has to be backed at 11/1.
Scorecast: Suspect Arsenal will get a 1-1 (but value is value).

Huddersfield v Man City

Huddersfield have acquitted themselves well at home, losing just once (to Tottenham, who were ahead early) and have already beaten Man United. So there could be a surprise in store. Or maybe not. 
Tap in: Away Win but don’t go anywhere near 1/6.
Smart Money: Man City to Nil at 17/20 is short enough.
Scorecast: A ruthlessly efficient 0-3.

Check in tomorrow for my Coupon Busters and get the pick of the best Doubles, Trebles and Accas to take into battle this weekend.

Yeah? 

Matt Nesbitt

Five things we learned in Game Week 12

Tuesday, November 21 2017

 

We didn't collect as much as I'd have liked at the weekend. But we did find out a few things...

1. Arsenal do have a set after all…

Or were Tottenham just a bit shit? They certainly looked flat. Kane looked like he’s carrying a knock and Alderweireld’s absence costs them at the back and in midfield, with Eric Dier dragged in to deputise.

But fair dos. It’s six in six at home for Arsenal and all the home fans had to boo was the withdrawal of Lacazette to shut up shop on 73 minutes. The first win and clean sheet in seven against Spurs evidentally still not enough for some... 

2. David Moyes hasn’t lost it…

The dressing room, that is. But it won’t be long. Calling out his ‘big players with big reputations’ after just 90 minutes in the last chance saloon was a curious decision. West Ham’s transfer window will already be steaming up with breath of agents wondering what to spend their commissions on in February...

3. Huddersfield, Southampton and Swansea travel light…

They certainly don’t take any goals with them. Another blank away day for all three, helping to land Saturday’s four-fold acca – hope you were on. These three stooges will remain on our radar for the foreseeable whenever they board the team bus. 

Newcastle made up the fab four-fold. But not before Dwight Gayle scuppered our To Nil double, scuffing in Old Trafford’s first away goal of the campaign after Lindelof’s Bambi moment. 

4. Club owners don’t give a monkeys about punters…

Tony Pulis has been sacked just in time to walk straight into the Wales job (and before you start feeling sorry for Ryan Giggs getting pipped at the post again, remember what he did to poor Rhodri…)

No one’s surprised, there’s been a gaping hole at the bottom of the Baggies for a while now. But as a punter I am a bit upset because you know where you stand with a manager like Tony. 

Crystal Pulis were a phenomenal Under 2.5 Goals team and last season West Brom were among the most reliable in the Premier League, if you knew what to look for…

Against Top Seven: back against them home and away (W1 D2 L11); Against Bottom Six: back them to win at home (W5 D1 L0) and draw away (L2 D4 L0); Against Mid-table, keep it in your pocket.

5. Man City are poor value…

For betting on, I mean. Saturday morning’s 12/1 City to remain unbeaten all season had been slashed to 8s by the time Shearer, Neville and Keown had spent all weekend masturbating over them. I’m not having it, personally.

Not having the Even Money to beat Chelsea’s 103-goal record. Not having the 4/9 Kevin De Bruyne to win Player of the Year. Not having the 1/6 to win the title.

Not saying they won’t all come in. But they are all bookies’ prices - and you don’t make money placing those.

At BadMan we bet smart. And this is what I've got coming up this week...

Thursday: Every Premier League match previewed

Friday: Coupon Busters

Saturday: Your TV guide to cashing in this weekend.

Matt Nesbitt

Weekend Coupon Busters

Saturday, November 18 2017

 

Okay then, Badmen and Badwomen (and Badtransgenders – we’re a broad Badchurch here…). Here’s my take on the best value Doubles and Trebles to do some Coupon Busting this weekend.  

At BadMan we avoid big Accas – they are bookmakers’ bets. But they don’t like Trebles. And they can’t stand Doubles. So that’s where we’ll plan our attack.

Eyes down, look in…

Match Results

  1. Bournemouth to beat Huddersfield
  2. Man United to beat Newcastle
  3. Liverpool to beat Southampton
  4. Burnley to beat Swansea

The four travelling teams have mustered just 12 goals between them in 19 away days. And a third of those were against Palace. All four home teams are in winning form, with Liverpool, Burnley and Bournemouth on the up. United can’t afford another slip.

  • £1 four-fold returns £5.80
  • £1 Any three of the four returns £2.40

 

Win To Nil

  1. Burnley to beat Swansea
  2. Man United to beat Newcastle

Four of Burnley’s five and all seven of United’s wins have paid out To Nil. Gift horse. Mouth.

  • £1 returns £4.68

 

Both Teams to Score

  1. Arsenal v Tottenham
  2. Leicester v Man City
  3. Watford v West Ham

Fourteen of the last 18 North London derbies have seen goals at both ends. Watford and West Ham have respective five from six and five from seven form and we all know if Leicester score two, City’s ballers will get three.  

  • £1 returns £3.40

 

Over 2.5 Goals

  1. Watford v West Ham
  2. Leicester v Man City

Watford, West Ham and City are all over Over 2.5. Leicester haven’t got a choice.

  • £1 returns £1.80

 

Under 2.5 Goals

  1. Burnley v Swansea
  2. Man United v Newcastle
  3. Bournemouth v Huddersfield

The away teams rarely take goals on their travels. Bournemouth and Burnley don’t like spending them, so one will do. The only worry is if United are feeling frisky in the last ten minutes. But there’s Champions League business to attend to midweek, so I reckon Jose will be backing the bus into position at 1-0.

  • £1 returns £3.88

I've used a £1 example but I'm not telling you how to live, brother. Bet what you like. 

That's how BadMan is betting this weekend.

Matt Nesbitt

BadMan Betting's Weekend TV Guide

Friday, November 17 2017

 

Now that England have been re-installed as World Champions-elect after gloriously avoiding defeat against Germany and Brazil, let's get back to some Premier League business shall we...

Two tasty TV treats on offer Saturday. Starting at the Emirates…

Arsenal v Tottenham. 12.30pm on Sky.

Yes, I know the formbook is supposed to be torn up, then thrown out the window in local derbies. But I’ve done neither.    

Man City aside, this is the PL’s best home team v best away team. History says ‘nip’, I say ‘tuck’. Nip, tuck. Nip, tuck. 

There’s no denying the PL power has shifted from red to white in recent years – Spurs are unbeaten in six meetings - but picking a winner is pissing in the wind. We can expect goals though. Fourteen of the last 18 North London knees-ups have seen goals at both ends.

Alderwerield’s twinged hamstring and the doubley doubtful Spurs keepers Lloris and Vorm will only help matters. Keeper No. 3 Gazzaniga will deputise, despite having a funny name. Ha! Gazzaniga. 

Tap In

  • Both Teams to Score is a gimme, but of no interest to us at odds of 1/2. The Draw also looks handy, paying out in three of the last four and four of the last six PL meetings. But we’ll swerve the 5/2 in favour of the 16/5 on offer in the Draw & Both Teams to Score. 

Long Shot

  • I’m not a massive fan of First/ Last Scorer bets, but a well-rested Harry Kane has hit six in six against Arsenal and if anyone ever fit the profile he does. So I’ll go Last Scorer at 10/3.

And for a right, rollicking knees up of a price have a bang on this…

Speculative Effort

  • Coral are paying 13/2 for the Draw, Over 3.5 Cards and Harry Kane to Score (via #YourCall).

(Ladbrokes (#GetAPrice) and William Hill (#YourOdds) will offer similar prices). 

Next up, we go to the Theatre of increasingly dull Dreams... 

Man United v Newcastle United
5.30pm BT Sport.

United have looked a bit wobbly since coming up against some Top Half teams. But only City have been better at home so far. There’s talk of Zlatan being on the bench, but probably just to lend Lukaku his banjo for the cows-arse hitting duties that he has been neglecting in his last seven matches. 

Lascelles will be a bigger miss for Toon than Jones for United if neither make it. But scoring will pose bigger problems for Newcastle than keeping them out the other end. They’ve fired three blanks in five away trips and De Gea is yet to beaten at Old Trafford.  

Tap Ins

  • We can’t ignore the Home Win, but give the 2/7 the finger and take the Win To Nil at 5/6. Or even better have a nibble on the Man United & Under 2.5 Goals at much saucier 2/1. 

I don’t trust the fours they were hitting teams for earlier in the season. And there’s Champions League business to attend to in the week, so expect Jose to start reversing the bus into position at 1-0. 

Long Shots

  • Newcastle have developed a taste for 1-0s this season. Two for, four against. And Jose likes a 1-0 almost as much as he does a 2-0. If this match was played five times, I’d fancy at least one to end 1-0 so 5/1 is worth a punt in my book.  

Dip your bread in, bad men.
 

Matt Nesbitt

Welcome to BadMan Betting

Thursday, November 16 2017

 

Fancy making a few quid from the Premier League? Come on in.

I like big bets. I cannot lie.

My name is Matt Nesbitt and I’ve linked up with Ben Dinnery and PremierInjuries.com to bring you a weekly guide to pulling bookmakers’ pants down.

We call it Badman Betting

On these pages we’ll be targeting SMART bets. VALUE bets.

Not the bets the bookies want you to place. Not the ones that fat Ray interrupts the adverts to tell you about. What you’ll get is solid, stats-backed tips at decent prices. And you’ll make money.

I won’t go chasing 10/1 winners or 10-match accas every week. ‘Cos it’s just not realistic.

You’d be better off finding a nice big wall to piss your punting money up every weekend...

At BadMan Betting we’ll be looking to double, maybe treble our wedge every week.

And if that doesn’t sound like much, consider this…

If you knew a bank that you could deposit £20… £40…or £100 into at a quarter to three every Saturday afternoon. Then go back two hours later and collect £50… £100… or £200… You’d do it.

Every week.

Picking winners isn’t difficult. Making money from them is...

FACT: 98.2%* of football bettors never any make money. (*Betting Research Unit, Nottingham Trent University).

Yep, you read that right… NEVER. MAKE. ANY. MONEY.

The reason? Simple - most punters don’t expect to win. They treat placing football bets like buying a lottery ticket.

Chasing a massive payout from big accumulators… First Goal Scorers… Scorecasts… Correct Scores…

But this is just like tucking your hard-earned inside the sweaty g-string of your local bookmaker…

Sure, you’ll get a momentary smile and twinkle. But behind those dead eyes they’re all thinking exactly the same thing: ‘Thanks for your cash, you loser. Now fuck off.’

At Badman Betting this is how we do it…

And this is how it’s done.

Every Friday, you’ll get a summary of the weekend’s Coupon Busters. That is, the best Doubles and Trebles on offer in:

  • Both Teams to Score
  • Under/ Over 2.5 Goals
  • Match Results

On Saturday morning you’ll get Match Profiles of the weekend’s TV games, highlighting where the smart money is going. Breaking bets down into:

  • Tap ins - Our shortest price bets, but we’ll target the best possible value based on stats and form. For example, we will never back Man City to Win at Home at 1/3, but might take the 6/4 to Win & Over 2.5 Goals            
  • Long shots – Bigger risk, but bigger returns and always underpinned by solid stats and savvy punting strategy. For example, we’ll swerve the Draw at 2/1 in favour of the Draw & Both Teams to Score at 7/2.     
  • Speculative Efforts – Big prices, cashing in on bookies’ build-your-own Twitter bets – #YourCall (Coral), #GetAPrice (Ladbrokes), #YourOdds (William Hill), etc. Cashing in on bankable Corners, Cards and Shots data.

And you’ll even get some trading advice for the lucrative FootballIndex.com player trading platform.  

Get on board with Badman today for my free weekly advice...

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Matt Nesbitt

BadMan Betting

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Thursday, November 16 2017

 

So who is this Matt Nesbitt?

A punter, just like you. Probably takes it more serious. Definitely puts more hours in. Likely to have had a few more winners - and more losers too.

I’ve been providing professional betting advice since the 90s. That’s pre-internet, pre-email, pre-Opta stats - when Ceefax was considered cutting edge.

A time when tips were sent by post, phone line, pigeon, smoke signal, town crier, whatever you could get…

(Well, that’s not quite true. But if you’d described the dark arts of Social Media to me back then, I would’ve had you in the ducking stool. Sharpish.)

 Getting on early…

The tapes went up on my punting career early. April 2nd 1977 to be precise.

The bet was Red Rum in the Grand National. The price was 7/1. The stake 10p. I know what you’re thinking – ‘baller’.

Like all first bets, of course, it sluiced in. And BOSH! – that’s you for life, sunshine…

It was for me anyway. The memory of my dad counting out eight ‘10p’s into my sweaty little, seven-year-old mitts is as fresh as if it happened this morning.

From then on in it was all about that buzz. The bolt. The charge of collecting   

The art of ‘collecting’…

The planned football career that would let me spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So I started the spending the mornings there too.

But instead of taking the well-trodden Shilton-shortcut… the Merson-motorway… the Hamaan-highway straight to Palookaville. I learned to bet smart. Put the work in. Got good. Started winning. Made a nice little living.

But you soon learn that bookmakers don’t care much for winners.

That's what the bookies really think!

First they limited my accounts. Then they closed them. Writing to me to make it clear I was persona not grata.

So, relieved of my livelihood I had to do something. Then I had an idea…

I started sharing my betting advice. Selling tips. First sending big, heavy manuals through post, then monthly newsletters... Then phone messages, emails, websites… Then Talksport, lads mags, bit of TV…  and I seem to be the ‘go to’ guy when Five Live need a quote about match fixing or the latest ex-player that’s lost his kids at poker.

Working for the enemy…

Then along came free stats and Social Media and overnight EVERYONE became expert, a tipster, or a ‘betting guru’ – whatever that is.  

But by then, the bookies had come a-calling and I confess… I went over to the darkside. 

But I’ve always been a punter at heart. For me it’s all about that buzz. The bolt. The charge of collecting. 

So why not join me for a bit of betting, banter and busting coupons.  We’ll be betting with coins and collecting in notes, pulling the bookies pants down every weekend.

That’s how a BadMan bets.

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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