What we learned from Game Week 38 - Final Day

Monday, May 14 2018

 

Well, that’s that for another season. In the Premier League at least. We escaped a treacherous looking coupon about 5pts to the good. 

Final Day is predictably unpredictable – away wins for Bournemouth, Stoke and Arsenal (their first away points of 2018) and nine-goals at Spurs were never getting backed. But United, Liverpool and City (eventually) did the business and kept our heads above water.

GW 38

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

5 out of 7

-0.22

Smart bets

3 out of 8

-1.15

Long Shots

1 out of 4

7.0

Scorecasts

1 out of 10

-1.5

 

Could’ve done with Burnley not throwing away a half-time lead and a West Brom goal would also have cracked a smile. But smashing in a 10/1 Long Shot at Newcastle gave me a warm, fuzzy feeling.

So here’s the end of season report card…

Season 2017/2018:

Points Profit:

Tap Ins

0.65

Smart bets

24.22

Long Shots

13.07

Scorecasts

-2.00

Total

35.94

 

With an additional 47.72pts to be added from our weekly Coupon Busters, that’s Badmen 83.66pts in front for the season. To £10 stakes that's £836.60 worth of beer tokens. 

No drama…

The only real potential for drama was at Swansea, where it turns out a 10-goal win against Stoke would’ve been enough with Man City pinching a last minute winner at Southampton
Instead the Swans revealed themselves to be ugly duckling after all, rolling over to their fellow Championship newbies.

The (surely soon to be departing) Carlos Carvalhal blamed the team’s poor start. I guess we’re to take it he means the bit before he arrived. And definitely not the last nine, from which they dredged just 3pts, no wins and 3 goals. 

…just harsh reality.

Their run-in included matches against Huddersfield, West Brom, Southampton and Stoke. All teams that ended up either relegated or who could’ve been sent down in their place. But they could only muster draws at West Brom and Huddersfield – with a total of just ONE shot on target from BOTH matches – and lost the other two.

THAT is what’s to blame, Carlos.  

Keep an eye on your inbox for my summer betting bulletins, including any value I spot at home and abroad. I’ve got the World Cup in my crosshairs and will update shortly. Shorty.
  

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 38

Saturday, May 12 2018

 

Hey boy, hey girl. Superstar tipster Matt Nesbitt is ready to go… 

Busting this Coupon will be like punching smoke. 

But seeing as we're gloved up...

Banker of the Week

  1. Liverpool to beat Brighton at 1/5
  2. Man United to beat Watford at 2/5
  3. Man City to beat Southampton at 4/9
  4. Tottenham to beat Leicester at 3/10

There’s no room for showboating on Final Day, so we’re putting our limited faith in the four teams that logically, sensibly, legally, all things being reasonable should – SHOULD, I tells ya – deliver the goods, despite the last day of school hoopla.

Liverpool will have a full(ish) side out and want a slick, sharp performance to take into the Champions League Final in a couple of weeks. Likewise United for next week’s FA Cup and, although we can expect a couple of changes, they are ones that most people would make anyway. 

City have 100pts to shoot for and once Southampton get wind that Swansea are NOT 6-0  up at half-time, they will roll over for a belly tickle. And Leicester assumed that position a month ago.

Place it with Coral and you get a 10% Bonus on all winning accas of four of more...

  • Bet: Four-fold at 2/1 (3.0)

  
Value of the Week

We’re not spoiled for choice for the season closer, but the bookies have dangled a bit of value which is worth snapping up.

Strictly speaking, the best value punt of the week is opposing Arsenal at Huddersfield.

You’ll only get 7/5, but covering the no doubt pumped up Terriers after season-saving Draws with Man City and Chelsea against a team looking for their first away point of 2018. Well, it’s buying money surely – Wenger’s last match, or not.

  • Bet: Double Chance – Huddersfield or Draw v Arsenal at 7/5 (2.4)

I also quite like/ I’m struggling to find anything other than (choose one) wins for Burnley and Palace. Burnley’s excellent season has somewhat stumbled to a conclusion so a Final Day flourish would do nicely. And there are few more suitable guests for such an occasion than one-win-in-12-on-the-road Bournemouth.

Palace and West Brom have finished the season 5th and 6th in the form table. But while Palace are now contemplating a Top Half finish, the Baggies’ said ‘laterz’ to the PL without kicking a ball midweek. Just when it looked like something ridiculous might happen. 

  • Bet: Win Double – Burnley v Bournemouth & Palace v WBA at 14/5+ (3.8+)

And if you’re feeling fruity, there is likely to be some lazy defending on show so goals around.

  • Bet: Win Double – Burnley & Palace both Win & BTTS at 13/1+ (14.0+)

 

Long Shot

And just for a silly punt, how about a few shekels on Michael Carrick to notch in his last ever match. if United get a penalty, perhaps even free-kick within range the ball could end up in his hands. I don’t many goals in the game, so am tempted to go Last rather than First.

  • Bet: Michael Carrick to Score Last v Watford at 12/1

That’ll do you for the Premier League this season. But I’ll steaming into the FA Cup, Europa and Champions League Finals and there’s something going on in Russia in the summer too. So don’t touch that dial.

Collect your money.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 38

Friday, May 11 2018

 

Matt Nesbitt has got that Final Day Friday feeling. It's tipping time...

The best tip I could give this weekend is: don't whistle with blancmange in your mouth. Oh and - keep a lid on your punting spend. 

Results over the last couple of weeks – Huddersfield at City AND Chelsea, Tottenham v West Brom, Man United at Brighton, to name a few – illustrate the perils of trying to predict matches at this stage of the season. Motivation varies, agendas don’t align and us punters pay the price.

With nothing more to be settled (really), Final Day is all about testimonials, laps of honour and keeping out the way of any spiteful fuckers trying to ruin your summer tab by putting a bit of you in plaster.

But we’re here now…  

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too – and can steer you towards Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots  this weekend. And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Eyes down.

Sunday:
3pm Burnley v Bournemouth

Lap of honour time for Burnley. Untouchable in 7th place, their season has been over for a week or two in truth.  Just two points from the last four – earned at Stoke and at home to Brighton - that would probably have translated into 4pts, perhaps 6pts a month ago. But they will enjoy a well-deserved end-of-season friendly. 
Bournemouth could play themselves into the Top Half, depending on other results. But have only mustered two wins from their last 11 – one v relegated West Brom, the other v teetering on the brink Swansea – so I’m not expected a party pooping display.   
Scorecast: 2-1 at 15/2.
Tap In: Burnley Draw No Bet at 8/15.
Smart Money: Burnley & BTTS at 3/1.

3pm Crystal Palace v West Brom
Over the last six matches, these two are 5th and 6th in the form table. It’s a case of too little too late for the Baggies, but all timed rather nicely for Palace. In fact, a win could give them a Top Half finish – depending on other results (I’ve a feeling that phrase is going to get a few airings this week…). 
And now that West Brom are confirmed as relegated, there could be an absence of wind from their sails. So Palace might whiff the chance of a third consecutive win for the first time since March last year. West Brom could also win a third on the spin – which will be their first since… wait for it… November 2012. 
Scorecast: 2-1 at 7/1.
Tap In: Palace Draw No Bet at 1/3.
Smart Money: Palace & BTTS at 12/5.

3pm Huddersfield Town v Arsenal
This could’ve been a very different season finale if Huddersfield hadn’t smuggled a point out of Stamford Bridge on Wednesday. But with another season at the top table sorted, they can enjoy Arsene Wenger’s farewell as much as the man himself. 
I doubt either team has seen much of the training ground this week and daresay the players will have the bar/ beach (choose one) on their minds as much as the result here. 
But Arsenal won’t be proud of their 2018 away record of zero points and Huddersfield will fancy adding the Gunners to the list of Man Utd, City and Chelsea – all teams they have taken points from. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 15/2.
Tap In: Huddersfield (+2) Handicap at 8/15.
Smart Money: Double chance - Huddersfield or Draw at 7/5.
Long Shot: Huddersfield Win & BTTS at 15/2.
  
3pm Liverpool v Brighton 
Liverpool are perhaps the only team on the coupon who will be anywhere near full-tilt on Sunday afternoon. (Even Swansea must know the game is up). With the big one still two weeks away,  Klopp will roll out all his big guns and want to go into the Champions League Final on the back of a good show. As it stands, two defeats and a dour 0-0 at home to the PL’s worst team isn’t the way to prepare for mission Real Madrid. 
Plus, there is a chance – albeit slim – that Chelsea could still tip-toe into fourth place. And that wouldn’t do at all.
Brighton have taken just 2pts and scored a single goal away to Top Half teams so far. But won’t worry about that today.   
Scorecast: 3-0 at 13/2.
Tap In: Liverpool Win at 2/11. 
Smart Money: Liverpool Win to Ni at Evens. 

3pm Man United v Watford
A win for United will mean only noisy neighbours City can boast a better Home record. And only a couple of teams have been better on the road. Which is good. They might even win the FA Cup, which would be very good. But there has been an unconvincing vibe about Jose and his team this season. Seeing them beaten by West Brom (at home), Brighton and Huddersfield mean you wouldn’t be surprised to see Watford take the points here. Even though it would only their second win at a Top Half team all season. 
Not one to bet the farm on, that’s for shizzle.  
Scorecast: 1-0 at 15/2.
Smart Money: Under 2.5 Goals at 29/20.
Long Shot: Michael Carrick to Score last at 12/1.

3pm Newcastle United v Chelsea
Chelsea’s lap of (dis) honour barely strayed outside the centre circle after being held by Huddersfield in the week (who were quite rightly going mental). Failing to finish Top Four just a year after finishing as champions clearly stung. They can still qualify for the Champions, if Liverpool lose at home to Brighton and they win at Newcastle. But neither look likely.
In fact, Chelsea have failed to win their last four trips to Toon (D1 L3). And despite looking leggy in their last four, Newcastle have been decent at home in 2018 (W4 D3 L1) and want to finish on a Why Aye high.
Scorecast: 0-0 at 11/1.
Smart Money: Double Chance - Newcastle or Draw at 7/5.
Long Shot: Newcastle Win to Nil at 10/1. 

3pm Southampton v Man City
A point will do for Southampton. A defeat might too, so long as there is not a nine-goal shift between this match and Swansea v Stoke. So it might depend on what kind of mood Man City turn up in. 
City have already broken the goal-scoring record for a 38-game season, but needed a 90th minute winner to get past the Saints back in December. And Southampton’s tails will be up after four matches unbeaten – their best form of the season – including two wins, which could easily been three (in three) but for a late heart-breaker at Everton.  Snatching relegation from the jaws of survival here is unthinkable. Isn’t it?
Scorecast: 2-4 at 33/1.
Tap In: Man City to Win at 4/9.
Smart Money: Man City & BTTS at 7/4.

3pm Swansea City v Stoke City
After taking 13pts from six matches in their winter revival, Swansea looked to have written the story of their season. But since beating West Ham on March 3rd - eight matches ago - they have only added three more points, firing no fewer than six blanks. And seem to have pinned their happy ending on their final two matches v relegation bedfellows Southampton and Stoke. The first was lost last week and in between Huddersfield have gone off script at Man City, then Chelsea. So now the Swans are looking for a drubbing here and a drubbing at Southampton, delivering a nine-goal swing in their favour. Oops.   
Scorecast: 1-1 at 6/1.
Tap in: Swansea Draw No Bet at 2/5.
Long Shot: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 4/1.

3pm Tottenham v Leicester City
The wheels have come off both teams in the last six matches. Or, more accurately, slowed to a crawl. Leicester’s four defeats were less costly, restricting them to a more than acceptable ninth place finish. Tottenham suffered one less defeat, but it cost them a Cup Final place and a runner-up spot that would’ve marked progress. 
Anything less than a win could see them drop to fourth and ends the campaign just 1pt better off than Chelsea. And they are better than that.
Leicester enjoyed one last hurrah at home to Arsenal, but it was prompted more by the visitor’s team selection – particularly the one who decided to get himself red carded 15 minutes in – than any fire in bellies.
Scorecast: 2-0 at 7/1.
Tap In: Tottenham Win at 3/10.
Smart Money: HT/FT Draw/ Tottenham at 3/1.

3pm West Ham v Everton
Not sure which set of fans have been less satisfied this season. West Ham will be grateful for the handful of even worse teams below them for their survival. Likewise, Everton might wonder just how they have found themselves in 8th place this season – which is just about their average finishing position over the past six season (7.83rd to be precise). 
The answer is their form v teams below them. At home their 30pts from a possible 36pts v teams outside the Top Eight was only topped by Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal. On the road, their three unbeaten (W2 D1) suggest they can take something away from West Ham. If not the season as a whole.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Long Shot: HT/FT Draw/ Draw at 21/5.

Final Day Coupon Busters can be equally tricky to pick – like punching smoke. But there are a couple of big prices around, so we’ll get gloved up and have a go.

Meet you back here about 3pm.

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 37

Wednesday, May 9 2018

 

Looks like Matt Nesbitt has got some chips. Hang on, is that piss all over them...?

The less said out last weekend’s load of old shite, the better. And no that wasn’t a quote from Jose Mourinho. Or Mauricio Pochettino. 

Managed to snaffle a small profit from Smart Bets but from the moment Brighton took the lead against the listless Man United on Friday night, I feared the worst. 

GW 37

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

1 out of 8

-6.34

Smart bets

2 out of 7

2.0

Long Shots

1 out of 5

-0.8

Scorecasts

0 out of 10

-10.0


It’s a tricky time of year for punting, with only a handful of teams with anything to play for. And plenty of other that have either packed up for the summer (Leicester), run out of steam (Newcastle, Tottenham), bigger fish to fry (Liverpool, Man United) or suddenly remembered what they do for a living (West Brom, Chelsea). 

Coupon Busters

Pts Profit

Bankers

-1.0

Value Picks

-2.0

TV Treble

-1.0

 

I’ve bypassed the midweek fixtures, but we will be looking for a Final Day looting on Sunday. At least by then all teams will know exactly what they are dealing with. And so will we.

So I’ll see you back here on Friday morning. Bring your dinner. 

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 37

Saturday, May 5 2018

 

Extinguish all cigarettes and turn off phones, it's Matt Nesbitt with this weekend's Coupon Busters...

Two more chances to put the bookies' Premier League pants down this season.

Get to it...

Banker of the Week

  1. Double Chance Newcastle or Draw v Watford at 4/7
  2. HT/FT Man City/ Man City v Huddersfield at 2/5
  3. Bournemouth v Swansea BTTS at 7/10
  4. Chelsea v Liverpool BTTS at 8/13

Bankers are thin on the ground this weekend, but here’s a four-fold that – all things being right and proper – deliver a saucy little 24/5 (that’s 5.8 in decimal and just short of 5/1 in plain talk). 

Place it with Coral and you get a 10% Bonus on all winning accas of four of more...

Watford and Newcastle’s race in run, but the home team’s five blanks in seven convinces me they are worth opposing… Swansea will enter their (very nearly) last chance saloon all guns blazing and Liverpool don’t know any other way to play. But both have leaks so I’m happy to take goals at both ends when they visit Bournemouth and Chelsea… Before topping up with a record-chasing City mauling a finger-crossing Huddersfield from the off.

Get on. 

  • Bet: Treble at 24/5 (5.8)

  
Value of the Week

Coupon’s full of matches that either don’t need to be won are always littered with draws and there are plenty of contenders this weekend.

I could see Stoke v Palace, Leicester v West Ham and Arsenal v Burnley all ending level but I’m going for: 

  • Bet: Draw Trixie – Bournemouth v Swansea, Watford v Newcastle United & Chelsea v Liverpool

Note: A Trixie is four bets (three doubles and a treble). So, for example, a £1 stake will cost £4 and pay a maximum return of £73.85 (around 18/1) if they all come in. Any two pays £11 (around 3/1). 

I also think that Stoke have been a bit unlucky in recent matches and things could go there way on Saturday lunchtime. It’s now or never, after all. It won’t be a goal-fest so we’ll squeeze a little extra value from going under 3.5 goals.

  • Bet: Stoke Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 5/2

 

TV Treble

Watch and earn with these three this weekend…

  1. Man United to win at 3/4
  2. Everton to win at 15/8
  3. Chelsea v Liverpool BTTS
  • Bet: Treble at 15/2+ 

Collect your money.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 37

Friday, May 4 2018

 

Matt Nesbitt has been reading the Tarot cards again...

I’ll be glad when this is all over… 

Another horrible week of dead rubbers, testimonials and teams with agendas so different (beach v PL survival) that gawd knows what we’re going to get.

I’ve hedged with value and just know that I’ve done my best. I. Did. My. Best. 

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too – and can steer you towards Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots  this weekend. And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

No diving, bombing or heavy petting.

Friday:
8pm Brighton v Man United

Brighton’s point at Burnley last week – their 37th – could be the last they get this season. After United it’s away trips to record-chasing Man City and potential Champions League winners Liverpool. But it should be enough to keep them on the Premier League island for another season, so this could be something of a lap of honour in front of the home crowd.
That will suit United, who have played at testimonial pace most of the season. But it has taken them to second place in the table and the Cup Final. And they are likely to do enough again here.
Scorecast: 1-2 at 7/1.
Tap in: Man United to Win at 3/4..
Smart Money: Man United Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 6/4.
 
Saturday:
12.30pm Stoke v Crystal Palace

If results had gone differently last weekend, this could’ve been a six-pointer – with Stoke having the chance to drag Palace back into the relegation mire for the final weekend. As it is, Stoke’s draw at Liverpool and Palace’s drubbing of Leicester has put 8pts and eight places between the teams. So expect contrasting moods in the camps.
Stoke need to win to give themselves a slither of a chance of survival. Palace are on easy street, but will be buoyed by the confidence of a decent final quarter of the season – their last six form puts them eighth in the PL. Fancy to Stoke to nick it – and value is on our side.
Scorecast: 1-0 at 6/1.
Tap in: Stoke Draw No Bet at 4/5.
Smart Money: Stoke Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 5/2.

3pm Bournemouth v Swansea
Another contrast in dressing room vibes here. Swansea find themselves once again scrapping for their lives after six without a win, whereas Bournemouth are breathing the rarefied air of mid-table (12th). An away win would take Swansea to within 2pts of their hosts and all but guarantee another meeting next season. But defeat could see them level with Stoke, leapfrogged by Southampton and below the dreaded red dotted line by bedtime.
On the plus side, Bournemouth’s form is only marginally better than the visitors – losing the last three and failing to score in two of them. Swansea have the safety net of two home six-pointers v Southampton and Stoke to come, but would love to get their business done here. Can’t see it.
Scorecast: 2-2 at 6/1.
Tap In: Both Teams to Score at 7/10. 
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 10/3.

3pm Leicester v West Ham
Leicester seem to have clocked off early for the season, taking just 1pt from their last four (at home to Southampton). There’s even talk of changing the manager – but it has been six months, I s’pose. A mixture of mid-table comfort and one or two keeping themselves injury-free for summer engagements in Russia, or La Manga means Leicester can’t be trusted to squeeze anything more out of this season.
Which will, of course, be music to West Ham’s collective ears who could still get caught up in the relegation bun-fight, especially if they leave Leicester empty handed. If results don’t go their way, Moyes’ boys could be in the Bottom Three with two to play – both v former clubs Man United and Everton. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Smart Money: Draw at 12/5.
Long Shot: West Ham & Under 3.5 Goals at 16/5.

3pm Watford v Newcastle United
It’s been a funny old season for Watford; stared well and looked Top Half material, then died and threatened to spiral into a relegation scrap. Then rallied, then died. Their 38pts will see them live to fight another Premier League campaign but it is hard to see where their next point – or even goal – is coming from after just 2pts and five blanks from their last seven.
Unless Newcastle have run out of steam, which I have an inkling they might have. Their excellent run of four wins – in the midst of 16pts from a possible 21pts – has come to an inglorious end, stumbling to drab defeats at Everton and at home to West Brom. Hard to see anything more than a draw here.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap In: Double Chance Newcastle or Draw at 4/7.
Long Shot: Newcastle Win to Nil at 21/5.

3pm West Brom v Tottenham
West Brom could stay up y’know. I’ll say that again… West Brom could stay up. It would take results to go their way – most notably Southampton to only register one more point – and beating both Tottenham then Palace on the final day. But the fact that it could means Darren Moore has already been the Baggies’ best manager for years. 
Tottenham looked to be motoring towards a strong finish until a bad week at the hands of the Manc pair rendered third place the best they can hope for. So their mood will be tricky to gauge.  The next big game for most of the players – if they’re honest – will be in Russia in June. But they should have enough quality in hand to get something, despite obvious coupon stopper potential.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 15/2.
Tap In: West Brom (+2) Handicap at 4/6.
Smart Money: West Brom Draw No Bet at 4/1.

5.30pm Everton v Southampton
Everton’s home record tells the story of their season. They have won ten of the 11 v teams below them (9th place down), but taken just 2pts from the seven above. The seven they’ve spent the last ten years and a summer fortune trying to penetrate. 
And there’s more bad news… they’ve looked every inch a Big Sam team in the last couple of weeks. So the Top Seven looks safe.
In their last four they’ve have been dour, physical, hard to beat – exactly what Southampton could do without at the moment. The Saints need 4pts, possibly 6pts from their last three – and can probably write off the Man City game on final day. So it’s all on this. 
Scorecast: 1-0 at 7/1.
Tap In: Everton Draw No Bet at 19/20.
Long Shot: Everton Win to Nil at 15/4.

Sunday:
1.30pm Man City v Huddersfield Town

The bookmakers are quoting 1/10 for a Home Win and I reckon that’s decent value. Huddersfield have taken 1pt from their eight matches away to Top Half teams and are yet to score. They look far and away the heaviest and clumsiest of the teams currently tip-toeing around the PL trap door. Their 35pts really should’ve been topped up at Newcastle, Brighton or at home to Everton because it’s a trip to Chelsea up next. So come last day their survival will depend on spoiling Arsene Wenger’s swansong. 
As for City, they could win at a canter but I have a feeling watching Liverpool in Europe might make them spiteful.
Scorecast: 5-0 at 9/1.
Tap In: HT/FT City/City at 2/5.  
Long Shot: City Win, Both Teams to Score: NO, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points at 7/2. (Coral #YourCall)

4.30pm Arsenal v Burnley
You say ‘dead’, I’ll ‘rubber’. While Arsenal have been good at home – excellent, in fact. Only Man City have been better – coming off the back of a crushing Europa League exit, that form can’t be trusted. Chelsea and fifth place are out of reach so the only incentive here is keeping their foot on Burnley’s head in sixth. Aside from it being Arsene’s last home game and all that. 
Clambering past Arsenal in the table would support Sean Dyche’s (already decent) claims tfor Manager of the Year, but his team has looked leggy in the last couple of matches. They wilted late to Chelsea and couldn’t stir up the grit to put away Stoke or Brighton. Bit of a testimonial feel here.  
Scorecast: 1-1 at 7/1.
Tap In: Burnley (+2) Handicap at 8/15. 
Smart Money: Total Booking Points – Under 15 at 3/1.

4.30pm Chelsea v Liverpool
Chelsea look interested again now. Perhaps the thought of the FA Cup Final has perked them up a bit. Although it’s true that there best work has taken place on the road recently – Swansea have been better at home over the last four matches. 
Of course, Liverpool can trump Chelsea’s Cup Final – but it could have the opposite effect. So long as Liverpool can beat Brighton on the final day, a draw will secure a top four finish – keeping Chelsea in fifth. So they can afford a slip here, but you suspect there’ll be enough swagger from Wednesday to nick a share of the spoils. 
Scorecast: 2-2 at 11/1.
Tap In: Both teams to Score at 8/13.
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 13/4.
Long Shot: Liverpool Win & BTTS at 9/2.

Would you care for some Coupon Busters to follow, sir? No problem. Watch this space...

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 36

Tuesday, May 1 2018

 

A shamefaced and tearful Matt Nesbitt is back with a stream of insincere apologies and lame excuses...

Well, it did look a tricky one. Wins for Southampton (!), West Brom (!!) and a point for Stoke at Liverpool says everything about the weekend. 

We scrambled a profit – just – from Tap Ins, Smart Bets and Banker of the Week. But nothing else fell our way.

I take responsibility, calling the draw between Liverpool and Stoke but not having the cojones to commit to it. And just got too many calls bang wrong, so I’m the big wanker of the week.

GW 36

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

6 out of 8

0.57

Smart bets

3 out of 6

1.45

Long Shots

0 out of 4

-4.0

Scorecasts

0 out of 10

-10.0

 

A goal for Leicester and one less for Man City would’ve put a nicer gloss on things. But again we had to turn to Burnley to do us a solid – with 5pts from their nailed on Draw with Brighton. We’ll just have to write this one off as a bad un. 

Coupon Busters

Pts Profit

Bankers

4.0

Value Picks

-2.0

TV Treble

-1.0

 

One good thing emerged from the weekend though… With the three teams below the red dotted relegation line all getting results and the three immediately above not, it means the season might not be over after all. 

The Final Day might be worth watching after all…

If Darren Moore keeps West Brom up after being in charge for just six matches, they should scratch out Pep’s name from the Manager of the Year Award and hand it to the big man. It could happen, y’know...

It won’t, but the fact that it even could after their season is remarkable. Beating both Tottenham and Palace in their last two is unlikely enough. But the Baggies would need Swansea to only manage one more point - and this is complicated further by the fact the Swans have Bottom Three bedfellows Southampton and Stoke still to play. 

Going into the permutations will make for too boring reading, but it does set up an exciting climax.

Squeaky bum time at the bottom…

Swansea seemed to have scrambled out of the relegation quicksand, with 18pts from ten matches (W5 D3 L2) at the start of the year. But six without a win now has them relying on a trip to Bournemouth and back-to-back six-pointers with Southampton and Stoke.

I can’t see them winning at Bournemouth, so they are then in a straight three-way for the drop. With all things pointing to a winner-stays-up v Stoke on the Final Day. 

Southampton could have a say, but they would need something from Everton and/or Man City. And Huddersfield could yet get dragged in, if they fail to get another point – in a scenario that could see Southampton AND Stoke stay up…

Stay with me on this…

Here goes… Huddersfield lose their last three. Standard. Southampton draw at Everton and beat Swansea. Stoke beat Palace and Swansea. Swansea fail to beat Bournemouth (and obviously lose to Southampton and Stoke, as covered). Right?

Southampton and Stoke both survive on 36pts. Huddersfield go down (on 35pts) with Swansea on (33/34pts) and West Brom (28-32pts). I think. 

Bet you wish you traded out on our 16/1 Southampton/ Stoke/ West Brom Relegation Treble now, eh?

I’ll meet you back here on Thursday for a gander at the penultimate weekend.

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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