Coupon Busters - Game Week 36

Saturday, April 28 2018

 

Fix up, look sharp. Dizzee Nesbitt’s the tipster in da corner…

You say Coupon and I’ll say Buster. 

Banker of the Week

  1. BTTS – Southampton v Bournemouth 7/10
  2. Man City to beat West Ham 3/10
  3. Man United to beat Arsenal 2/5
  4. Tottenham to beat Watford 1/6

Four ‘soft’ bankers that tot up to a measly 3/1 (or just under). Nothing to post on Facebook about, but better than overstretching and ending up with a torn up betting slip. 

Place it with Coral and you get a 10% Bonus on all winning accas of four of more...

City and United look stand out pics on a tricky coupon. City are back in the groove and chasing down records and United will enjoying bullying and Arsenal team with next Thursday on their minds. And wishing Arsene a big ‘va te faire foutre’. 

Only three of Bournemouth’s last 16 have failed to produce goals at both ends and this is surely the Saints last chance to show something. And Watford haven’t scored in their last nine away.

Get on. 

  • Bet: Treble at 3/1 (4.0)

  
Value of the Week

We snaffled a decent 5/2 (ish) return from our Draw Trixie last weekend and I’m of a mind to dip back in. With plenty of teams just a point or two from safety, I can see a few stalemates being played out this weekend. 

Burnley v Brighton and Huddersfield v Everton have got Draw written all over them. And Palace v Leicester and Southampton v Bournemouth also appeal. So let’s do this:  

  • Bet: Draw Trixie – Burnley v Brighton, Huddersfield v Everton & Southampton v Bournemouth.

 

Note: A Trixie is four bets (three doubles and a treble). So, for example, a £1 stake will cost £4 and pay a maximum return of £67.82if they all come in. Any two pays £10. 

I also think that the 7/1 on offer for Bournemouth to win at Southampton with goals at both ends is too big. So we’ll have a nibble on that too.

  • Bet: Bournemouth to Win & BTTS v Southampton at 7/1

 

TV Treble

Watch and earn with these three this weekend…
Stoke City (+3) v Liverpool 
HT/FT Man City/ Man City v West Ham 
Man United Win To Nil v Arsenal 

  • Bet: Treble at 5/1+ (6.3 available with Coral)

Collect your money.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 36

Friday, April 27 2018

 

Punter, tipster, serial winner and considerate lover Matt Nesbitt is at it again...

Don’t fancy this weekend’s coupon much. Lots of variables. Some big European scene-stealers midweek, a couple of dead rubbers and a smattering of teams who’ll be going through the motions with their minds on more realistic fish to fry in the remaining weeks. So it’s a tricky week. 

At times like this I wish I’d paid more attention at school. But here goes…

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too – and can steer you towards Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots  this weekend. And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Dilly dilly.

Saturday:
12.30pm Liverpool v Stoke City

Another lunchtime kick off against another (probably) relegation doomed struggler. And another massive distraction in midweek. Actually, the same distraction – but the second leg.
Jurgen is bound to leave a few out, but a ‘few’ can be replaced without much loss of quality. It is the attitude with which they go about things which counts here. Last week v West Brom it was bob on for 75 minutes. Then they wobbled and conceded twice. Ditto midweek. 
Stoke will be bang at it for the full 90 minutes, that’s a given. They have scrapped a couple of draws in the last two and perhaps deserved more.  Minus Salah (rested) and possibly Mane (knock) this has Coupon Stopper potential.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 9/1.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 13/10.
Long Shot: HT/FT Draw/Liverpool at 3/1.
 
3pm Burnley v Brighton
There are only five teams between these two, but perhaps three divisions. Burnley are tucked up in one of their own in 7th place - Arsenal and the Top Six won’t be caught, but Everton and Mid-table are safely out of reach. Brighton are just a point or two away from the firm ground of Mid-table and at this stage of the season that will do. Like a marathon runner in the last mile, the finish time goes out of the window - it’s about getting over the line. Saying that, it’s Man United, City and Liverpool up next so a point would do nicely.
Draw written all over this.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap In: Burnley Draw No Bet at 8/15.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2.
   
3pm Crystal Palace v Leicester City
Palace have been one of the PL’s most consistent teams post-Roy Hodgson. Against the Bottom Half, they are bold and pick up points; against the Top Half, they are brave and get narrowly bet. In a nut shell. 
Leicester come bang in the middle of the Top Half/ Bottom Half ranking, but I can’t see leaving the Palace with the crown jewels. 
Take out the Top Four from Palace’s last 14 at home and they have only lost once (to Arsenal). And with Stoke and West Brom to play will be confident of A, avoiding any late relegation drama and B, perhaps even finishing the season six unbeaten.
Scorecast: 2-1 at 15/2.
Tap In: Palace Draw No Bet at 1/2.
Smart Money: Palace Win & BTTS at 3/1.
  
3pm Huddersfield Town v Everton
Huddersfield’s season peaked back in October (beating Man United) but this weekend is the tipping point. Another point will mean Southampton and Stoke would need two wins and a draw in order to draw level. And that’s unlikely. But here’s the thing… squeezing anything out of the Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal games they still have to play is equally unlikely. So it’s all on this one.
Everton aren’t winning any friends – at home or elsewhere – with their style of play. But they are starting to pick up points. Including four from their last two away trips.  
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap In: Everton Draw No Bet at Evens.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 12/5.

3pm Newcastle United v West Brom
Two team in form. No, that’s not a typo. Hear me out… Newcastle are four from four at home and would be Top Six if the season had started ten matches ago. And if the season had started four weeks after that – that’s six matches ago, keep up – West Brom wouldn’t be rock bottom. In fact, they’d be a giddy 13th.
Whether it’s the impact of Darren Moore or the acceptance of their fate, Albion go to St James’ Park in better fettle than the last few months.
Newcastle have handled the Bottom Seven pretty well all season though, winning eight of their 13 matches (D4 L1) and dropped points would sting here.    
Scorecast: 2-0 at 7/1.
Smart Money: Newcastle Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 27/20.
Long Shot: Newcastle Win, Under 10.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Bookings at 4/1.

3pm Southampton v Bournemouth
Is this really a derby? Geographically perhaps, but surely it’s more flip-flops and donkey rides than bandanas and police horses. Sparky will hoping to ignite something in Southampton to avoid the ignominy of taking down two teams in one season. But just 3pts from their last eight matches – including five blanks in front of goal – doesn’t inspire much faith in these Saints. Something miraculous is required. 
Bournemouth have failed to register a goal or a point in their last two – okay, it was Liverpool and Man United – but only won of their last nine. And haven’t won a ‘derby’ in ten attempts. They are safe enough on 38pts but still have the chance to push this season from ‘average’ to ‘decent’. Maybe even ‘good’.
Scorecast: 2-3 at 40/1.
Tap In: Both Teams to Score at 7/10.
Long Shot: Bournemouth & BTTS at 7/1. 

5.30pm Swansea City v Chelsea
Another ugly one to call. Swansea looked to have performed the great escape, but instead of heading straight to the bar seem to be lingering dangerously close to the trap door. They might be relying on back-to-back six-pointers in the final week v Southampton and Stoke. Which could be great for Sky’s Final Day coverage, but less favourable for the nerves of their fans.
Chelsea have stirred from their winter hibernation, recording a hat-trick of wins for the first time since early December. Everyone wants to play in the Cup Final, after all. In the mood, they should have plenty here. But have looked flaky for a while. Like I say, an ugly one.  
Scorecast: 1-2 at 15/2.
Long Shot: Draw & BTTS at 5/1.

Sunday:
2.15pm West Ham v Man City

West Ham are another team that hasn’t quite scrambled up the relegation embankment to safety yet. Until they bag another couple of points, their security is based on the their rivals being further down a more slippery slope. And three home matches from the last four is less of an obvious advantage when two of them are from Manchester. 
City for their part look back in the groove of going anywhere and beating anyone. They still have record points and goals totals to shoot for. Which will define their season more than one pivotal week in April. 
Scorecast: 1-3 at 9/1.
Tap In: Man City Win at 3/10.

4.30pm Man United v Arsenal
Getting beaten 1-3 to 10-man United in December, despite 22 shots and 75% possession was a body blow that Arsenal might still not have fully recovered from. Revenge for that, plus four wins from five, plus Arsene’s last chance to get one over on the old enemy – Jose AND United – could inspire an upset. But coming in the middle of their all-egg-carrying Europa League semi-final favours the home side.
United have looked focussed since the West Brom mishap and will fancy this as a chance to nail down second place. And, of course, to administer one final boot into Arsene’s Wengers.
Scorecast: 2-0 at 6/1.
Tap In: Man United Win at 2/5. 
Smart Money: Man United Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4.
Long Shot: HT/FT Draw/ Man United at 3/1.

Monday:
8pm Tottenham v Watford

Tottenham might be rocked by their FA Cup semi-final defeat. And the inevitable echoes of their issues v Top Six teams – four of the other five have beaten Spurs this season. But I daresay Watford would swap positions.
The Hornets’ sting is nothing more than a tickle away from Vicarage Road. They have scored just a single goal in their last nine away days (at Man City of all places) and taken just 6pts from a possible 39pts on the road all season. So any hangover Tottenham have from last weekend should probably be short-lived.  
Scorecast: 3-0 at 11/2.
Tap In: Tottenham to Win at 1/7. Pfft!
Smart Money: Tottenham Win to Nil at 7/10.

Coupon Busters to follow on Friday PM. Don’t touch that dial.

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 35

Tuesday, April 24 2018

 

That Matt Nesbitt oddball is back again. This time banging on making you £25 a week or something...

Plenty of gravy to be mopped up again this weekend – 9.91pts if you’re counting. 

That’s over 110pts in five months, or 22-ish pts a month. So if you were betting, say, just £5 per point you’d be up about £110 a month. 

Figures – by the way – would have most tipping services wanking themselves silly over. Plus, they’d be charging you £20… £30… £40 a month.

But right here it’s all free. Yes, that’s £25 a week in your top pocket, from one BaDMan to another. 

De nada. 

Our Coupon Busters did the damage for us this weekend. Liverpool flirted with delivering us 7/4 and 7/1 winners, but decided on a late collapse instead. So they are the villains of the week.

GW 35

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

6 out of 8

1.38

Smart bets

2 out of 7

0.3

Long Shots

0 out of 3

-3.0

Scorecasts

1 out of 8

-2.0


Dishonorable mentions to Arsenal and Man City too, for each steering us a goal away from 10/1 and 7/1 windfalls. WhyIorta…!  

Coupon Busters

Pts Profit

Bankers

5.0

Value Picks

2.23

TV Treble

6.0

 

But our old pals Burnley were on hand to return a hat-trick of winners, totalling 12pts. I do like a team that punch their weight. Every week.  

Here’s what else we learned at the weekend…

I love the Champions League, me like…

Plenty of punters are wading into the 9/4 about Liverpool to lift the big one, thinking that history is on their side. But Roma fans are thinking precisely the same about their team, especially after pulling off the ‘impossible’ 3-0 reverse over Barcelona in the quarters. And they are trading at a much better value 8/1.

Personally, I’m looking at the other semi-final for the winning team. But that 8/1 about Roma could be a bit shorter after tonight’s match. Roma do their best work on the road. They have collected more points away in Serie A than at home – 36 v 31 – only losing the once (to Juventus). And have returned from 17 away days with sheets that don’t need cleaning.

Just saying.

You have to put your money where your big fat mouth is…

So where am I betting? 

For a bit of fun, I’ll be taking Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score at 11/5. And on Wednesday I’ll be taking Real Madrid to Win & Cristiano Ronaldo to Score at 10/3.

For two reasons. One, I fancy both. And second both are enhanced prices on offer from Coral And that’s a nice little combo to have going on before stepping into the com-bet zone.

If you haven’t got a Coral account, get on board today and you’ll get bonus £30 in Free Bets for your trouble…

It looks all done and dusted domestically…

The climax of the Champions League is looking more exciting than the Premier League damp squib. City have been Champions-in-waiting since Christmas, perhaps even two week previous, when they beat United at Old Trafford. Their narky neighbours will be second though, having 3pts to play with over Liverpool and Tottenham. Both of whom are confirmed at the Top Four table. 

Chelsea are untouchably fifth. Likewise Arsenal in sixth. Oh, and Burnley seventh. 

Leaving the ten between Everton (8th) and Swansea (17th) four more matches to avoid injury before they hit the beaches and bars of Dubai. Unless they dragged to Russia, of course.

Southampton, Stoke and even West Brom have shown a flicker of a pulse in recent weeks – and Swansea play them both before the curtain comes down. So - technically, at least - there is a sliver of a chance that the Final Day might be worth watching. 

But I wouldn’t be on it.  

Landing in your laps this week…

Neverless, I’ll be ploughing through the dead-rubbers to bring you another set of winning picks. Shall we say Thursday?  

Chocolate. 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier INDEX

Saturday, April 21 2018

       

           

Back to my roots. Sergio Aguero is the latest addition to my INDEX portfolio. The Argentine had knee surgery on Tuesday to repair damaged cartilage and there were conflicting reports on his expected length of absence initiating a sharp price drop.

     

Firstly, national team doctor Homero D'Agostino raised concerns: "I imagine that he will not arrive 100 percent fit with the limited time that is left before the World Cup.” However, his father was quick to allay growing fears by confirming the operation “went fine” and that Aguero should be training again in around ten days.

Four years ago, I was asked to comment on Luis Suarez and Arturo Vidal who underwent similar procedures, both of whom recovered in a little over a month prior to the finals in Brazil. And City boss Pep Guardiola reinforced the notion that Aguero would be okay in Fridays press conference: “It’s four or five weeks. We will try and get him ready for the World Cup. He’s in Barcelona now. The first part of his rehabilitation.”

     

Aguero has 60 days and I fully expect the striker to be ready for the opener versus Iceland. Argentina didn’t pull up any trees during their qualifying campaign, although La Albiceleste should go deep in the tournament which will bode well for those holding FUTURES in the striker.

Coupon Busters - Game Week 35

Friday, April 20 2018

 

There's a Matt Nesbitt vibe in the area. Lock up your doubters...

Sunny as fuck outside. Get yourself in a dark, dank bookies with these puppies…

Banker of the Week

  1. Palace (+1) Handicap  v Watford 
  2. Arsenal to beat West Ham 
  3. Man City Half-time/ Full-time 
  4. Chelsea to beat Southampton

Four ‘soft’ bankers this weekend which add up to a tidy 4/1 payout. Which is preferable to trying to pick out the strongest three for a smidgeon over 2/1. 
 
Place it with Coral and you get a 10% Bonus on all winning accas of four of more...

Chelsea’s season depends on the FA Cup and if they are anything like, they should have way too much for Saints. Arsenal are formidable at home and have a Europa League semi-final to sharpen up for. Seeing off Swansea by half-time should be nothing more than a cakewalk for the new Champs and I fancy Palace can get at least a draw at Watford.

So there you have it. Get on. 

  • Bet: Fourfold at 4/1 (5.0)

  
Value of the Week

Pfft! Slim pickings this weekend…

But form and agenda lead me to thinking ‘Draw’ in Watford v Palace, Stoke v Burnley and Everton v Newcastle. 

Neither Watford, Palace, Everton or Newcastle would turn their nose up at a point. And I’m not sure Stoke have quite got enough to get the better of a Burnley side who will be stung by their midweek defeat.

But Draws are dicey customers, so we’ll build in a bit of insurance with a Trixie.

  • Bet: Draw Trixie - Watford v Palace, Stoke v Burnley & Everton v Newcastle

Note: A Trixie is four bets (three doubles and a treble). So, for example, a £1 stake will cost £4 and pay a maximum return of £61.78 if they all come in. Any two pays £10.23. 

 

And if you’re feeling fruity, you could crank it up the gigawatts and place the same bet adding Both Teams to Score.

  • Bet: Draw & BTTS Trixie - Watford v Palace, Stoke v Burnley & Everton v Newcastle

A £1 stake will again cost £4 but pay a maximum return of £144.56 if they all come in. Any two pays £19.12. 

 

TV Treble

Watch and earn with these three this weekend…

  1. Man United v Tottenham – First Half Draw
  2. Man City Half-time/ Full-time v Swansea
  3. Everton v Newcastle – First Half Draw

I’m doing things by half this weekend. You knowz I got jokez.

  • Bet: Treble at 5/1+ (6.0)

Collect your money.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 35

Thursday, April 19 2018

 

Sherrif Matt Nesbitt is riding into town again to sort the good from the bad and the ugly in this weekend's coupon...

A short, but still sharp offering this week. Eight matches between Thursday and Monday to pick the low hanging fruit from.

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too – and can steer you towards Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots this weekend. And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Feeling hot hot hot!

Thursday:
7.45pm Burnley v Chelsea

When Burnley opened the season by beating Chelsea not many would’ve predicted there would be just two places and 8pts between them at this stage of the season. And after tonight it could be one place and 5pts. Burnley are five from five in the PL and Chelsea just one from four on the road, making a mockery of the bookies pricing – 7/2 Home Win, 10/11 Away. 
It should be said that four of Burnley’s winning streak have been by a single goal margin – as have 12 of their 14 wins this season – and the five matches v the Top Six so far have yielded just a single point.  But I’m going with the value:
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Tap In: Burnley (+2) Handicap at 2/7.
Smart Money: Burnley Double Chance at 20/23.
Long Shot: Burnley Win & BTTS at 15/2.

7.45pm Leicester City v Southampton
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory to Chelsea at the weekend will have been a body blow to the Saints. They have the chance to put it right of course, at Wembley on Sunday. But that is another reason I can’t see anything for them here. Oh, and here’s a third – 2pts from a possible 24pts away to Top Half teams so far.
There are signs that Leicester’s season has slowed to a jog, but they have been efficient v the Bottom Half. Just the two defeats from 17 (W7 D8), although they have drawn at home against the other three Bottom Four teams. 
Scorecast: 2-0 at 11/1.
Tap In: Leicester Win at 5/4.
Smart Money: Leicester Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 21/10.

Saturday:
12.30pm West Brom v Liverpool

Now then, what do we have here? West Brom will be buzzing off their win at Man United and Liverpool twitching at the prospect of their Champions League semi-final on Tuesday. Plus, Albion have won and drawn at Anfield already this season. So this has all the ingredients for an upset, right? 
Probably not. Although the Baggies look a different animal under Darren Moore, Klopp has gone strong and gone home with the points in most pre-CL matches so far. There might be a tweak here and there, but they should be a goal better than Albion’s best efforts. Even with the brakes on.
Scorecast: 1-2 at 7/1.
Tap In: Liverpool to win at 8/15.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win to Nil at 7/4.
 
3pm Watford v Crystal Palace
Only 3pts separates the two teams, but Watford are north of that 35pt marker – the ‘magic’ 40pts for survival is so last year, dahling - so in less of a flap than they might otherwise be after taking just a single point from their last five. 
Beating Brighton last week just about edged Palace out of the shadow cast by relegation, but need another win before they dare put their Premier League towels on their sun beds again. If it doesn’t come here, they will fancy there are points to be had v Leicester, Stoke and West Brom before the end of the season. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Tap In: Palace (+1) Handicap at 4/9.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 13/4.
   
Sunday:
1.30pm Arsenal v West Ham 

Arsenal will be hoping that West Ham will think their 5pt haul from their last three will be enough to preserve their PL status. Or at least be targeting the required points from their three remaining home matches.  
It’s not that Arsenal haven’t be good at home this season, because they have. Very good, in fact. Better than Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea and just a goal shy of matching Man United’s numbers. But you get the feeling it’s all about the Europa League now – and Atletico are in town on Thursday. 
Burnley’s run of five wins has taken them to within 2pts in the PL and Arsene will be keenly aware of Dyche Dyche Baby’s breath on his neck (which I imagine is hot and smalls like a lit match).  So I’ll take Arsenal to do enough here. 
Scorecast: 3-1 at 10/1.
Tap In: Arsenal Win at 8/15. 
Smart Money: Arsenal Win & BTTS at 9/5.
      
1.30pm Stoke City v Burnley
Paul Lambert stresses that he can’t fault the effort of his players, but has stopped short of praising them. Because he must know that shabby points spilled at home to Watford, Brighton and away to Southampton and West Ham has cost him the chance to perform a rescue mission. And a reputation for that means a job for life in the Premier League. 
Burnley have won their last three on the road, which has taken them to the brink of the Europa League (fans all over Europe must be rubbing their hands at the prospect of a tapping ‘Turf Moor’ into their SatNavs…). Can’t see Sean leaving empty handed here.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap In: Double Chance – Burnley or Draw at 6/10. 
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 7/2. 
Long Shot: Burnley Win 2-1 at 11/1.

4.30pm Man City v Swansea
Taking the field as Champions will no doubt give Man City a sense of pride, freedom and they want to put on a show. Which is bad news for Swansea. And here’s some more…
City have only dropped 4pts at home all season. And three of those were to Man United, who could’ve been four or five down at half-time. The other was to Everton in GW 2.
On a positive tip for the visitors, they will be able to swap shirts with the Champions. Oh and finish the season with home matches to two all but condemned teams, Stoke and Southampton. Both of whom are likely to be out of reach of Swansea’s 33pts total by then.  
Scorecast: 4-0 at 7/1.
Tap In: Half-time/ Full-time – Man City/ Man City at 8/15.
Long Shot: Man City Win & Under 2.5 Goals at 27/10.

Monday:
8pm Everton v Newcastle United

The season can’t be over quick enough for Everton fans. The false hope of a fortune spent on new talent, the returning Rooney and blossoming academy has long been replaced with Big Sam, boredom and bitter fans at the ballot box. And Liverpool could yet win the Champions League. You’ve got to feel for the Toffees. 
Not being beaten by their city rivals is likely to be the highpoint, but they do have the chance to beat a Top Half team – for just the second time – on Monday night. 
Newcastle arrive in fine fettle, winning their last four and anything here will see them leapfrog their hosts.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap In: First-half Results – Draw at Evens.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 7/2.

All the prices quoted are from Coral and if you open a new account today you’ll get £20 in free bets…

I’ll be back around high noon Friday with some Coupon Busters based on the six weekend fixtures.

Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 34

Tuesday, April 17 2018

 

Bit of a Curate’s Egg this weekend. (Note: A teacher at school – Miss Norman – said that about me once and I only learned what it actually meant this week. #rebel).

Some good bits, some bad bits. 

On the face of it, 35pts profit is a tidy weekend’s business. But a minus from both Tap In and Smart Bets categories is neither big nor clever – one from seven Smart Bets is shite, in fact.

Nailing 15pts from Long Shots over the last two weekends is a good sign though.

GW 34

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

5 out of 8

-0.32

Smart bets

1 out of 7

-2.60

Long Shots

2 out of 3

11.0

Scorecasts

3 out of 10

18.0


Huddersfield’s last minute winner probably made it a good night down the high street, but robbed us of 8pts of profit. So Tom Ince is this week’s rotter. 

Things were looking rosy in the Monday night match too, until that lanky get Peter Crouch scored for Stoke. Luckily that lanky get Andy Carroll got us a bit back.  

Coupon Busters

Pts Profit

Bankers

-1.0

Value Picks

4.0

TV Treble

6.0

 

Burnley were once again stars of the show, delivering a second Scorecast in the last three weeks. So Dyche Dyche baby is our hero. 

Here’s what else we learned at the weekend…

Some things are all too predictable…

Not sure if you saw the social media posts last Friday morning - circa 9am - which showed from Champions League semi-finalist Roma’s website advertising tickets for their first leg away at Liverpool. 

Nothing exceptional about that, I hear you say. Except the draw didn’t take place until 12 noon.  

Could’ve been a coincidence, of course. Filler copy on a test page. Wrong type of leaves on the line. A puff of smoke from behind the picket fence…  

You might also have noticed that Mo Salah’s odds have shrunk from around 2/1 to 1/3 since the guys at the FA have had their bet, er, I mean… concluded the voting procedure. 

You can’t go around making wild accusations without basis…

So, I’ll tell you a little true story…

A few years ago I was running a tipping service with a guy who worked under the moniker ‘Mr X’. He was an ex-odds Ladbrokes compiler, NFL handicapper and all round punting legend (who is no longer with us, so I’ll respect his anonymity). 

He had contacts everywhere – including one in an auditing company somewhere in the North West that dealt with all the voting for TV shows, such as I’m A Celebrity..., Pop Idol, then X-Factor and the like. 

In the mid-00s this company also took over the handling of PFA Player of the Year votes too. Which, as you can imagine was a lucrative – if short-lived – benefit for me and the X man – and our subscribers. 

(In fact, backing Ryan Giggs to win the 2009 Player of the Year was the bet that got my accounts closed with Hills and Bet £3.65 and massively limited elsewhere. But it did pay the deposit for my house.)  

Who can you trust? Sweet FA…

But the point of the story is this…

During phone conversations with our man on the inside, it emerged that Mr X wasn’t the only one keeping tabs on how the voting was going with a view to piling in. A fairly high-profile FA administrator – whose name you would recognise, but I’ll keep to myself rather than risk landing myself and Ben in a legal barrel of thumbs – was also a regular caller. So much so that our man warned us away from using the FA guy’s particular bookmaker (Sky Bet) for our own bets.  

Oh and just in case you were wondering – the latest literature on the FA’s blanket ban on betting for all players and associated club employees warns of six-figure fines and bans of up to five years.   

Which is arguably less believable than my yarn. But both are true. 

What you can bet on this week…

The fixtures have gone a bit skew-whiff this week, with matches every day from Wednesday to Monday. So I’ll be delivering an eight-match Preview on Thursday, then on Friday I’ll post some Coupon Busters based on the six weekend matches (Saturday – Monday).

Fair enough? 
 

Matt Nesbitt

 

Coupon Busters - Game Week 34

Friday, April 13 2018

 

Friday 13th?! Pfft! Matt Nesbitt scoffs at superstition. Thinks it's bad luck...

This lunchtime's episode of Undercover Boss USA brought a tear to my eye. So I'd like to do something for you. Go a Coupon Busting with this little lot...

Banker of the Week

  1. Man United to beat West Brom
  2. Bournemouth (+3) Handicap v Liverpool
  3. Swansea Win or Draw – Double Chance
  4. Newcastle Win or Draw – Double Chance at 10/3 (4.33)

Not many nailed-on in this weekend’s coupon, so we’ve had to stretch to a four-fold for a satisfactory return. But place it with Coral and you get a 10% Bonus on all winning accas of four of more...

United dropping points at home to West Brom following the Houdini act at Man City would be akin to… I dunno… giving Ronaldo an open goal after clawing back a 0-3 deficit in the Bernabeu, or something. Could never happen.

Bournemouth (+3) are better value than the Liverpool Win and Swansea and Newcastle are the PL’s form teams at home. Get on.

  • Bet: Four-fold Acca at 10/3 (4.33)  

 

Value of the Week

We can cash in on the bookies ongoing distrust of unfashionable Burnley. Despite four wins on the spin, being 5th in the form table over the last month and facing a Leicester team with just 5pts from a possible 24 away to Top Half teams… you’ll still get odds against for the Home Win.

I’m going to make it one loader and take the Burnley Win & Both Teams to Score that’s paid off in three of the last four at an unmissable 5/1.

  • Bet: Burnley & BTTS at 5/1.

I also like the look of Tottenham at the moment. They look strong, fit and focussed. Unlike Saturday’s visitors City. Who look at bit jaded, dazed and confused. They have always got goals in them, especially on those wide open space at Wembley but I fancy Spurs will over run them in the last half hour. 

  • Bet: Half-time/ Full-time Draw/ Tottenham at 11/2 (6.5)

 

TV Treble

Watch and earn with these three this weekend…

  1. Liverpool Win 
  2. Tottenham v Man City BTTS
  3. Newcastle Win

Two tap ins should put us in a great position for Sunday’s 1.30pm kick off. That’ll take care of your bar bill. 

  • Bet: Treble at 5/1 (6.0)

I suppose the Grand National winner now, don’t you? Eyes roll. 

My men on the inside – who know more about racing than me – are recommending Blaklion and Anibale Fly to win. With Gas Line Boy as an Each Way outsider.
Offer 

Place it with Coral and you’ll get £5 in free bets…

Collect,

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 34

Thursday, April 12 2018

 

Matt Nesbitt has had his crystal balls out again to see where the smart money is going this weekend...

The prospect of the quaint old Premier League might seem dull compared to the drama of the Champions League this week. Not least for Michael Oliver – he’s got West Ham v Stoke on Monday night.

Still, there’s money to be made. So let’s make some, shall we?

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too – and can steer you towards Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots   this weekend. And there’s £100 in free bets with  Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

Channel your inner Cristiano and let’s drill in into the top bin, eh?

Saturday:
12.30pm Southampton v Chelsea

Three defeats on the spin – and just 2pts from the two before that – doesn’t give you any evidence that Southampton can A, get something here, or B, survive the drop. But a win from their game in hand drags Palace, Huddersfield and Swansea back into spitting distance. And this might just be the best time to play Chelsea for a dogs’ life.
Just 7pts from a possible 24pts including three away losses on the spin makes you wonder about Chelsea’s appetite. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in that eight match spell either. It’s now or never for Saints, but I’m not sure either is in any shape to win this.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Tap In: Chelsea Draw No Bet at 4/11.
 
3pm Burnley v Leicester City
The Manager of the Year needle has swung back toward Sean Dyche in the last couple of weeks, following Pep’s Man City wobble. Burnley’s return to winning ways – four on the spin now – has just about guaranteed a 7th place finish. Unless they lose to 8th place Leicester, of course. 
The Foxes have got a taste for away days recording back-to-back wins at West Brom (no great shakes) and Brighton (only equalled by Chelsea, Liverpool and City this season) before losing at home last weekend. Two honest teams who punch their weight, but I fancy Burnley might get a points decision in this one. And they are still the PL’s value team.    
Scorecast: 2-1 at 10/1.
Tap In: Burnley Draw No Bet at 4/5.
Long Shot: Burnley Win & BTTS at 5/1. 

3pm Crystal Palace v Brighton
Jeepers, the outcome of the Eagles v the Seagulls could set the cat among the pigeons. A home win drags Brighton to within 1pt. An away win probably has Brighton clambering up the embankment for good and pushes Palace back within reach of Southampton and perhaps even Stoke. A draw and I say all this again next week.
Palace’s form hasn’t been bad, but one-goal defeats to four of the Top Five and a late slip at Bournemouth last week has translated into just 4pts from the last six matches. Brighton don’t travel with much threat – their away form would have them in the Bottom Three – but neither can afford a slip here.  
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 27/10.
  
3pm Huddersfield Town v Watford
Of all the teams paddling in the relegation pond, Huddersfield look the most likely to miss their step and slip under the surface.  They have spurned chances to build up a buffer v bedfellows Swansea, Palace and Brighton and it gets ugly from here on in. After Watford and Everton at home it’s trips to City and Chelsea. And if they are not a bloated corpse by them, a final day visit from Arsenal should just about do it. 4pts should do it – which means at least a draw here.
They will be cheered to learn that Watford have scored just twice in their last ten on the road. But it’s the home team that have more to lose. 
Scorecast: 0-0 at 7/1.
Smart Money: Watford Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 12/5.

3pm Swansea City v Everton
Swansea are the division’s form team at home, winning their last four. That run looked like lifting them out of trouble, but failing to win at Huddersfield and West Brom means they are still within reach of at least three of the five teams below them.
Everton have only won one of their last seven away from Goodison – losing the other six – but will be buoyed by share of the spoils in the Merseyside derby. Although they can’t afford to wait until the 75th minute before crossing the half-way line at Swansea. Can’t see either party risking 1pt for 3pts if they get to the dying embers of this match level. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap In: Double Chance - Swansea or Draw at 4/11.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 17/5.

5.30pm Liverpool v Bournemouth
It’s all about the Champions League for Liverpool now. Chelsea and Arsenal are at least 10pts off being a threat to a Top Four finish, so keeping the front four as fab as possible from here on in is the priority for Jurgen. That means points will no doubt be dropped here and there – and this could be one of them.
Bournemouth are a kind of Liverpool-lite – playing a similarly open, expansive ‘you get three, we’ll get four’ type of football. Except that more often than not, it’s ‘you get three, we’ll get one’. But this will be a good watch.   
Scorecast: 2-1 at 8/1.
Tap In: Bournemouth (+3) Handicap at 4/9. 
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & BTTS at 8/5. 

7.45pm Tottenham v Man City
Poor old Pep. This is the last fixture City needed after a calamitous week, conceding eight goals to their biggest rivals – three to their closest in geography, the other five to their closest in swagger. 
Tottenham have hit their groove, winning their last six in the Premier League. In fact only Juventus have beaten Spurs since City did way back in December (22 games ago). But this meeting has a very different vibe to it.
Expect a bit of muscle-flexing from Tottenham, while City probably could do with resting theirs. They can’t win the league here – that will wait until West Ham away. That wasn’t in the script. 
Scorecast: 3-1 at 18/1.
Tap In: Double Chance - Tottenham Win or Draw at 1/2.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & BTTS at 10/3.

Sunday: 
1.30pm Newcastle United v Arsenal

The bookmakers seem more bewitched by Arsenal’s run of five home wins than they do Newcastle’s run of three. Making Arsenal favourites for this makes it the outstanding Coupon Buster of the week. The thing is, Arsenal have been good – excellent, in fact – at home all season. Only the Manchester pair have been better. But away from the Emirates it is a different story. A Bottom Half story. A worse than Palace story. A 1pt better than Southampton and Huddersfield story. And Newcastle have beaten both of those in the last week, so don’t expect a happy ending to that story here – especially after a long Moscow trip.
Scorecast: 2-1 at 10/1.
Tap In: Double Chance - Newcastle or Draw at 8/11.
Long Shot: Newcastle Win & BTTS at 5/1.

4pm Man United v West Brom 
It’s difficult to know whether United’s second half heroics at City last week was more a measure of them, or City. What we do know is they are well capable of grinding out To Nil wins over teams outside the Top Six – it’s nine from 11 so far. And that only City have been more efficient at home this season. 
West Brom rallied under new (erstwhile) boss Darren Moore last weekend, but don’t look capable of adding to the 3pts gathered from their last ten away trips. Although two of those points were accrued at Tottenham and Liverpool. Funny old game.  
Scorecast: 2-0 at 9/2.
Tap In: Man United to Win at 1/5.
Smart Money: Man United/ Man United HT/ FT at 8/11.

Monday:
8pm West Ham v Stoke City

Despite the five places and 7pts between the teams, this still qualifies as a six-pointer. If West Ham win they will just about secure their PL status and Stoke’s Championship status next term. If Stoke win, they drag a handful of teams back in the pit – and West Ham’s run-in (which includes three of the Top Six) suddenly looks significantly more treacherous. 
In their favour, the Hammers have taken points from five of their last six at home (11 in total). And Stoke have lost four of their last six away (D2) and only managed maximum points once on the road all season. Hard to make a case.    
Scorecast: 2-0 at 8/1.
Tap In: West Ham Draw No Bet at 4/9.
Smart Money: West Ham & Under 3.5 Goals at 13/8.
Long Shot: Draw/ West Ham at 4/1.

What's that, you say...? You want my winner for the Grand National too...

Aww go on then. I'll include it in my Coupon Busters around midday tomorrow.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier Injury INDEX

Wednesday, April 11 2018

       

                  

Last month [March 30], Frenkie de Jong became one of several medium to long-term holds which will help structure the mainstay of my INDEX portfolio heading into 2019 and beyond. The Ajax midfielder is already showing promise and I’m sitting on a 17% ROI with 250 futures invested.

 

Next up, is Giovanni Simeone [son of Atletico manager Diego], a 22-year-old striker playing for Italian club Fiorentina. Having announced his Serie A arrival in 2016/17 at Genoa, La Viola quickly snapped up the young Argentine for €15 million after scoring 12-goals in his debut season. And the short move to the north west of Italy’s Liguria region has done nothing to quell his goal scoring.

                

Simeone once again tops his clubs goal charts, 10 [three assists] from his thirty league starts [which includes a strike against Barca conquerors, Roma, at the Olimpico Stadium last weekend]. Despite a recent 8 per cent rise, I see a lot of upside here for a relatively low buy-in.

 

What we learned from Game Week 33

Monday, April 9 2018

 

No bicep kissing this weekend. We returned a measly 1.4pts profit and I’ve spent the weekend self-harming, because it should’ve been more. But I’ll get on to that…

A tidy four out of five Tap Ins nudged us in front, but shambolic seven duck eggs from nice (not very) Smart Bets dug us a 4.6pts hole, which we only just scrambled out of thanks to a Long Shot and a Scorecast hitting the spot. 

 

GW 33

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

4 out of 5

1.16

Smart bets

2 out of 9

-4.60

Long Shots

1 out of 3

4.50

Scorecasts

1 out of 10

2.0


The Jekyll and Hyde hero of the weekend was Chris Smalling. The United centre back was chiefly responsible for City taking a two-goal lead, but then volleyed the unlikely winner to deliver our 13/2 Man Utd Win & BTTS Long Shot.  

Coupon Busters

Pts Profit

Bankers

0.6

Value Picks

-1.0

TV Treble

-1.0

 

Villain of the week was Brighton’s Steve Duffy, whose through ball for Huddersfield’s Steve Mounie was gratefully accepted – taking down our 5/1 1-0 Scorecast AND the 11/4 Treble featured in our Coupon Busters.    

But the real guilty party this weekend was the clown that writes this post (whoever that is).

Here’s what else we learned at the weekend…

Tip like you’ve got a set…

Two apologies to make. First, my Everton v Liverpool tips were shit. Not because I got it wrong, my crime was worse. I called it correctly, but failed to draw any profit from it. Which comes from either being an idiot, or failing to put your pods on the chopping block. Which is what happened.

I withdrew two bets at the last minute. The Everton v Liverpool Draw was one and Chelsea v West Ham Draw & BTTS the other, changing it to a Chelsea win. Now, this might sound like after-timing to make myself a big time Charlie, but it isn’t. 

I’m naming and shaming myself because the motivation for withdrawing the two was because it would’ve meant too many draws – and I was concerned it might look I was sitting on the fence. So I sat on the fence. What a dickhead.  

It pays to be optimistic… 

Like most people, I could only see one outcome at half-time at the Etihad on Saturday. It was just a case of how cruel City were feeling and how many they’d get. I’d certainly given up on the Man United Win & BTTS and the 50/1 available in-play on a United Win at Halt-time prompted little more than a smirk in my house. But not everyone gave it up…

As you probably know, I also work for the enemy – first the bookies close your accounts, then they want you to work for them. And after a while you say ‘yes’. So I now write, consult and consort from the dark side. (I’m not supposed to say who, so ignore the two bookmakers – who have recently merged – in the next sentence. Mum’s the word). 

I happen to know that fourteen brave punters snapped up the 50/1 on offer on Man United to Win at half-time at City across the Coral and Ladbrokes brands. The biggest bet was just a fiver, but even so I wish I’d been watching the match in the same pub as him on Saturday. 

Even the very best get it wrong…

In the last week the wheels have - if not come off Man City’s season, they have certainly buckled. Pep got his selection wrong at Man City - yeah, I said it! – but the first and third goals were littered with shoddy mistakes.And although Man United’s second half response was very good – giving their fans a glimpse of what they could have been watching this season! – City were all over the place at the back.  

Whether they have taken their foot off the gas… or we have simply not noticed their frailties before because their front six have been so good this season… or maybe Kompany and Otamendi are too flat-footed and stiff to be play together… I dunno. But I know this…

I’m wading into the 7/5 available on Man City to Win & Both Teams to Score on Tuesday night.   

We cannot lose on our 16/1 relegation treble…

Defeats for Stoke and Southampton put another nail in their coffins (West Brom’s is already being lowered into the soil). The 16/1 West Brom/ Stoke/ Southampton Relegation Treble recommended on February 27th post is now down to 13/10, so if you’re nervous you could easily spend a few points of your profit protecting your bet.

Either by trading your position on Betfair, or by backing the West Brom/ Stoke/ Huddersfield Treble at 2/1 for insurance. I can’t see Southampton getting out of it personally, but if they do Huddersfield look the most vulnerable of the pack hovering about the chasm.

I’m sitting tight, but the way. I’ve already cost money this week by getting the jitters.

Thursday, yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 33

Saturday, April 7 2018

 

Stop! It's Matt Nesbitt time. He wants to bust your coupons...

Greetings pop pickers. 

This is how things look from BaDMan Towers this weekend.

Banker of the Week

It’s not a weekend for wading in, folks. Derby days, dead rubbers and a couple of six-pointers make nailed-on bankers thin on the ground. But there are a couple of bets worthy of a cocky strut up to the counter…

First up, Bournemouth have the dirtiest sheets in the Premier League - just one has remained clean in their last 13 matches. But they are handy in front of goal, so I can see another Both Teams To Score when they host a Palace in reasonable form and hungry for a result.

To accompany that we’ll oppose West Brom at home to Swansea. Not my bravest ever stance, but at 6/10 it’s all about the value.

  • Bet: Double – Bournemouth v Palace BTTS & Swansea Double Chance v WBA at 8/5 (2.6)

There are a couple of stone-wallers this weekend. Arsenal are as bankable as anyone outside of the Manchester teams at home and should – no, will beat Southampton

Elsewhere, their North London nemeses Tottenham have the steel and momentum to do it on a windy afternoon at Stoke. And Brighton’s slip last weekend and their visitors this (Huddersfield) will only strengthen their resolve to clamber out of the relegation pit, once and for all.

Now, I’ll level with you… The upset potential of Stoke and/ or Huddersfield playing above themselves and slashing all over our chips has not gone un-noticed, or un-pondered. But picking between the two would be the toss of a coin, so let’s just chuck them all in shall we? (Half your stakes if you want to be a wuss about it).  

  • Bet: Treble – Brighton, Tottenham and Arsenal all to win at 11/4 (3.75) 

  
Value of the Week

Whisper it on Merseyside, or anywhere else they still cling to the belief that the interests of fans are anything more than a footnote in a clubs’ pursuit of commercial opportunity. But Liverpool have got bigger fish to fry than at Goodison Park on Saturday lunchtime.

Jurgen started laying the groundwork to excuse a weakened team in his post-match interview on Wednesday. Plus, they’ve got a 10pt qualification cushion between them and 5th place Chelsea so getting a result at Everton is less important than coming out of it with a clean bill of health.

Big Sam, meanwhile, will have been feeding his players raw meat all week long. And will recognise the chance to sugar coat a pretty dire reign by plotting the defeat of one of the best four teams in Europe. Probably. 

So I propose a value bet on Everton to Win. You’ll get 3/1, perhaps a smidgeon more. But can squeeze that price up a bit taking the Everton Win & Under 3.5 Goals. If Liverpool score twice, I can’t see Everton getting three – so all bets are off. But this covers a 1-0 and 2-1 and is on offer at 21/5 with Coral.    

  • Bet: Everton Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 21/5.

TV Treble

Watch and earn with these three this weekend…
Everton (+2) v Liverpool 
Man United (+2) v Man City 
Arsenal Win to Nil 

  • Bet: Treble at 4/1

Offer 

All the odds quoted are from  Coral. If you haven’t got an account, sign up here and get £20 in free bets…

Collect your money.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 33

Friday, April 6 2018

 

That Matt Nesbitt is relentless. Here he is again with a look at the Premier League coupon...

Not superstitious are you? 

‘Cos if you are, I’m about to put the kybosh on this week’s tips. Ready? Here goes…

We’ve taken 82.39pts profit from the last four weekends. Including Coupon Busters, that is – which will be along later on. 

So we’re deep in the cleavage of a hot streak, or due a stumble. You decide.

Still with me? 

Wise move, Badman. Wise move.

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too – and can steer you towards Colossus’ £5k - £5 million jackpots   this weekend. And there’s £100 in free bets with Colossus is you sign up with this code: RAFMTS5UU4

You’re welcome.

Saturday:
12.30pm Everton v Liverpool

Hmm. You can’t help thinking that the context of this match will play a part. With Liverpool 90 minutes into a season-defining Champions League tussle with Man City if this was anyone but the bluenoses, a few big hitters would be left in storage for this one. But it isn’t. And the arch spoiler Big Sam will be rubbing his hands at the prospect of putting a bit of gloss on a very forgettable reign/ season so far. 
Just 3pts from a possible 39pts v Top Seven teams doesn’t look good on paper. But the blue side of Liverpool will be looking forward to this more than the red side - especially the bus ride in. I reckon it could be 4pts from 42pts come 2.30pm.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 6/1.
Long Shot: Liverpool win from behind at 9/1.
 
3pm Bournemouth v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth’s total football approach makes them the PL’s great entertainers. In a mediocre mid-table kinda way. They certainly don’t care much for clean sheets – it’s just one in 13 – and they like a late goal; their last six matches have seen goals in the final minute. Three for, three against. Just three defeats (from 17) v Bottom Half teams this season, but not enough wins (W6 D8) has meant they have only scratched the surface of the Top Half.
Five defeats from the last six has seen Palace slip back to the precipice, but decent performances, late goals from good opposition make me think they might be okay. And could get something here.
Scorecast: 2-2 at 11/1.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.
Smart Money: Bournemouth & BTTS at 17/5.
   
3pm Brighton v Huddersfield Town
Brighton’s home defeat to Leicester last week put a bit of a blot on a tidy run of form (W3 D2 L1) that had them looking upwards, rather than at the scrum below. And they were a bit unlucky, to be fair – that missed penalty will have ruined Glenn Murray’s week. They still have a 3pt advantage over their visitors and a game in hand, but will see this six-pointer as a chance to place a boot on Huddersfield’s collective head and scramble to safety once and for all. 
The terrible Terriers haven’t scored since their West Brom win four games ago. And that’s been their touble all season.   
Scorecast: 1-0 at 5/1.
Tap in: Brighton Draw No Bet at 1/3.
Smart Money: Brighton Win & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2.
  
3pm Leicester City v Newcastle United
Two teams in reasonable form – just one defeat in their last 13 between them. Both teams will have hoped for better this season, but have probably just about punched their weight. Newcastle have only lost three of 16 matches to Bottom Half teams (W8 D5) and Leicester just the two (W8 D6). 
Newcastle will carry more motivation into the match, thinking a win will secure another Premier League stint next term. But I suspect they wouldn’t turn their nose up at a draw. One or two in Leicester’s ranks might already being thinking about their holidays. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 8/1.
Tap in: Leicester Draw No Bet at 2/5.
Smart Money: Leicester & BTTS at 16/5.

3pm Stoke City v Tottenham Hotspur
Anything but a win and Stoke are bang in trouble. So anybody but Tottenham would’ve been preferable (Man City aside). Only City have been more ruthless on their travels over the last 10 matches and if Spurs needed a boost (which they didn’t) coming from behind to win at Chelsea for the first time in a dogs life would do the trick. Fact: Only three of Spurs’ starters were born the last time they won at the Bridge.
Tottenham will have a jump to 3rd place in their sights with the (currently 2pts better off) Liverpool in the tricky looking Mersey derby this weekend. Stoke may well need four wins from their last five matches after this. 
Scorecast: 0-2 at 11/2.
Tap in: Tottenham Win at 1/3.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 23/20.
Long Shot: Tottenham Win from Behind at 8/1.

3pm Watford v Burnley
Has the look of a dead-rubber about it. Of course, Watford will want to finish as high above halfway as they can – 10th looks possible, 9th ambitious, 8th fanciful! And of course, Burnley will want to hang on to 7th place having sat there most of the season. Plus, both are in form. Watford have matched Liverpool at home over the last month and wins are like London buses for Burnley – 12 without a sniff and then three arrive all at once.
I know I’ve already got plenty of splinters in my arse this week, but the absence of emergency in both teams’ status makes think another stalemate. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Smart Money: Burnley Draw no Bet at 5/4. 

3pm West Brom v Swansea City
The Baggies’ season has gone from bad to worse, then back to bad again. And then into the side of a mountain killing everybody on board. Pardew’s dismissal might prompt a flicker of a response from the players that hated him most, but the fat lady has long cleared her throat and is well into the second verse. They’ve still got Man United, Liverpool and Tottenham to come. Jeesh. 
Swansea are not quite out of trouble yet, but if their situation hasn’t improved significantly by end of play here they deserve a nerve-shredding finale. All their bedfellows are also away from home this weekend with tougher tasks. 
Scorecast: 1-2 at 11/1.
Tap in: Double Chance – Swansea or Draw at 6/10.
Smart Money: Swansea Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 14/5.

5.30pm Man City v Man United
There was talk of City prioritising Tuesday second leg v Liverpool even before their 0-3 first leg drubbing. But there’s also the chance of clinching the title against the not-so-noisy neighbours, which should lift the mood a little. So let’s not expect City to roll over let United tickle their bellies. Another poor show here won’t do.
We know Jose will be set up not to lose. And I daresay it will be as muscular a line-up as he muster. There wasn’t much between them in the Old Trafford defeat and I fancy United can smuggle something away from the Etihad. It might be their cup final. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 6/1.
Smart Money: First Half result a Draw at 23/20.
Long Shot: Man United Win & BTTS at 13/2.

Sunday
2.15pm Arsenal v Southampton

Could Mark Hughes take two teams down in the same season? It’s going to take something as spectacular as one of his volleys for the Saints to clamber out of the hole they have dug for themselves. Successive 0-3 drubbings away to Bottom Third Newcastle and West Ham is not the best way to prepare for three more trips to Top Half opposition before the end of the campaign. Oh and there is Chelsea and Man City at home too. 
Arsenal seem to have stirred from their mid-season nap, at home at least – where they remain only bettered by the Manchester duo. It’s looking increasingly like sixth place and the Europa League, which isn’t that much different from fourth place and the FA Cup. A familiar story over the last 15 years or so.
Scorecast: 3-0 at 11/1.
Tap in: Arsenal to Win at 4/7.
Smart Money: Arsenal to Win to Nil at 2/1.

4.30pm Chelsea v West Ham
The three points against Southampton last week not only kept the fans off the pitch but could go a long way to keeping West Ham in the Premier League. The job is not done yet though and the Hammers’ run-in is as troublesome as anyone’s in the dogfight.  There are home points to be had from Stoke up next and Everton on the final day, but Chelsea’s sloppy form over the last couple of month’s makes this look as fruitful as it has for a while. 
Only wins over West Brom and (somewhat fortunately) Crystal Palace have punctuated a run of five defeats, including two at home.  Last week’s put Tottenham out of reach, so it’s all about the FA Cup for Chelsea.
There won’t be much between these two.
Scorecast: 2-1 at 8/1.
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & BTTS at 2/1.

All the odds quoted are from William Hill If you haven’t got an account, sign up today and get £30 in free bets. Get stuck in here…

There’ll be a distinctly Coupon Bustin’ vibe in the air shortly.
 

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 32

Tuesday, April 3 2018

 

That Matt Nesbitt has a peak at the blinders from the weekend...

The Premier League played ball again over Easter weekend. Six out of seven Tap-ins delivered just shy of 3pts profit, with a solid five out of eight Smarts Bets chucking in 4.91pts. But the star performer was the Scorecasts with a 10.5pt profit. 

GW 32

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

6 out of 7

2.98

Smart bets

5 out of 8

4.91

Long Shots

0 out of 4

-4.0

Scorecasts

2 out of 10

10.50


Heroes of the weekend were Burnley for delivering a scorecast for the second week in a row. And the back-fours of Man United, Arsenal and Newcastle for keeping three clean sheets to land our Win To Nil Trixie – and a 6.71pts return. 

Coupon Busters

Pts Profit

Bankers

4.21

Value Picks

6.71

TV Treble

10.50


Woofter of the weekend was me for choosing the Trixie over the straight Treble. Note to self: grow a set. 

Here’s what else we learned at the weekend…

We’re a step closer to landing our 16/1 Relegation Treble…

If the league table doesn’t change between now and the final day, we’ll be collecting. 

Three more defeats shortened the West Brom/ Stoke/ Southampton combo in to 9/4 – from the recommended 16/1 (February 27th post). 

Of the three, you’d say Stoke have the cojones to at least go down fighting. They showed a bit of spirit at Arsenal – and were perhaps a bit unlucky with the penalty decision. They still have West Ham, Palace and Swansea to play so could yet drag one of them (or Huddersfield) into the quicksand and clamber out over the top.

Southampton’s latest surrender (in the six-pointer at West Ham) tells me they are resigned to going down. Not that any of the players will give a single, solitary shit or course. It just means a summer of pestering their agents for a transfer. But phone reception is pretty good on the beaches of Dubai.

I’m less confident about our 16/1 Juventus punt…

If you also followed me in on Juventus to win the Champions League before their second round tie with Tottenham – and didn’t tear up your betting slip when they were a goal down in the second leg – you will have been as choked as I was they didn’t draw Roma or Sevilla in the quarter finals.

You have to fancy Real Madrid to ease past them over two legs. The bookies certainly do – Juve are currently priced at 12/1, so we can’t even trade our bet. So we might just have to suck that one up, Badmen.

But it’s that bloody Cristiano Ronaldo’s fault. Despite being past his best/ less effective/ being caught up by Kane, etc (copyright any football writer you care to name over the past 12 months – they are all equally clueless…). Big Ron is averaging a goal every 38 minutes since the turn of the year. 

Oh and a goal a game for nine seasons. Phe. Nom. E. Nal. 

Footballers don’t make old bones…

I hope Ray Wilkins pulls through. Sixty one is no age and he is a top bloke. We had him on Tip TV a few times – a Sky Digital TV show that was mostly shit, but great fun.  He was always a gent and gave me a lift to Ealing in his chauffeur-driven car once (he was serving a drink driving ban). We shared a kit-kat, fact. Top fella.

I’ll be back up in your grill on Thursday with the smart money bets for Game Week 33. 

Yeah? 

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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