Premier Injury INDEX

Friday, March 30 2018

 

I’ve been looking for a few long-term holds [12-24 months], low buy-in with the potential of a hefty upside. After scouring the INDEX for a bargain, I think this 20-year-old fits the bill perfectly. 


Frenkie de Jong broke onto the scene in 2016/17 and is an established first-team regular at Ajax. His talents have piqued the interest of some of Europe’s biggest clubs and he is already being talked about as a long-term successor to Sergio Busquets.  

Speaking in December, former Dutch star Arie Haan claimed. "De Jong is a better version of Franz Beckenbauer, because he has speed and passes the ball easily."


Despite a 13% rise over the past seven days, De Jong in-my-opinion, is an absolute steal at 89p. These types of investments will form the cornerstone of my INDEX portfolio going forward. 

 

Premier League Preview - Game Week 32

Thursday, March 29 2018

 

Matt Nesbitt has a gander at this week's Premier League coupon...

With International shenanigans done and dusted until that little tournament in the summer, it’s back to Premier League biznizz this weekend.

Sit down, strap in and extinguish all cigarettes. 

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too.  

Come on in…

Saturday:
12.30pm Crystal Palace v Liverpool
This is a pressure-off match for Palace following their win in the six-pointer at Huddersfield last time out. Much of their run-in business in firmly in the Bottom Half, so anything added to the pot here will be a bonus. Only Top Six teams have taken maximum points here since Woy’s wevival.
Liverpool are bound to have one eye on Tuesday’s Champions League showdown with City, so a couple of big hitters might be benched. And a couple of others might be in third gear. So it’ll be down to one of the usual suspects to summon up a bit of magic.
Scorecast: 0-1 at 8/1.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 8/5.
Long Shot: HT/ FT Draw/ Draw at 6/1.
 
3pm Brighton v Leicester City
Brighton look to have timed their best form of the season just right – only the Top Four have been in better nick over the last couple of months. Nine massive points from their last three at home and draws at Southampton and Stoke has built a nice little cushion between them and the bun-fight below. And with their tails up they’ll see this as opportunity to clamber a few places higher.
Leicester haven’t travelled well this season, taking just 2pts from 24pts v teams outside the Bottom Third. Brighton are currently on the cusp, so my needle is twitching between a home win and a draw.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap in: Double Chance: Brighton or Draw at 4/9.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 17/5.
   
3pm Man United v Swansea City
If the season was judged on the last ten weeks, Swansea would be 5th in the table. Just a place behind United. But most of their good work takes place on home turf – only Watford have surrendered all the points to the visiting Swans. Three of the last four have been draws though and another here would be celebrated like a win.
Paradoxically, Old Trafford celebrates wins like draws these days. Jose is falling out with players, fans and the press alike these days with his muscular, attritional football. But the home table is easier on the eye. Only City have been better and we can expect them to get it done again here.
Scorecast: 1-0 at 5/1.
Tap in: Man United Win at 1/4.
Smart Money: Man United Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 10/11.
  
3pm Newcastle United v Huddersfield Town
Newcastle are another team that are finding their feet at a good time. They are unbeaten in five at home since their 0-1 thrashing to Man City. And a share of the points at Bournemouth and Palace has kept them in the huddle just above the relegation pie-fight. There’s still work to do, of course and a win here could strike a double blow – establishing a healthy foothold for the run-in and stamping on Huddersfield’s increasingly desperate clinging fingers.
It’s been a bad couple of weeks for David Wagner’s lot. Spilling 4pts at home to Swansea and Palace has made their next couple critical (it’s Brighton and Watford up next).   
Scorecast: 2-0 at 13/2.
Tap in: Newcastle Win at 8/11.
Smart Money: Newcastle Win To Nil at 8/5.

3pm Watford v Bournemouth
Couldn’t be more mid-table - 11th plays 10th both locked on 36pts. It could’ve been a lot worse for both teams though. Watford’s spectacular mid-season tailspin looked like costing them yet another manager, but a sequence of three home wins has arrested the nose dive. But two successive Top Six hidings on the road (0-8 on aggregate) will have them relieved to be back at home to the entertainingly chaotic Bournemouth. 
They are actually more consistent than they first appear – v Bottom Half, not bad; v Top Half, a bit rubbish. But that doesn’t help us much here. Expect goals at both ends though – 11 of the last 12 have delivered.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6. 
Long Shot: Bournemouth to Win From Behind at 14/1.

3pm West Brom v Burnley
Burnley are unlikely to poke their head through the loft hatch of the Top Six, but very much have seventh place in their own hands. And that will do very nicely, thank you. Their inexplicable 11 match unbeaten run has been buried by two good wins and their tails are up. They’ve got England internationals, don’t you know.
It can’t be easy turning up for work at West Brom these days. The new chief exec said this week he was ‘shocked’ at the state of the club off the pitch. Has he seen what’s happening on it?
Scorecast: 1-2 at 11/1.
Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at Evens.
Smart Money: Burnley Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 5/2.
Long Shot: HT/ FT Draw/ Burnley at 5/1.

3pm West Ham v Southampton
Optimistic Hammers will see this as a chance to put 5pts between their squeaky bums and Southampton, probably sending the Saints downstream to Championship waterfalls. Pessimists will expect to see West Ham clinging to the reeds, while Southampton clamber past them and take control of the oars. And the rest will be storming the pitch and calling everyone a ‘facking cant’.  
Moyes’ boys have been decent against the Bottom Six – W4 D3 L1 – but shipping 11 and scoring just two in their last three doesn’t bode well. As for Southampton, there might be a Sparky spark and a post-FA Cup win boost. But I’m not sure either team is good enough to win this. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Smart Money: First Half Result – Draw at Evens.

5.30pm Everton v Man City
Unlike Sky’s TV advert, I will acknowledge Man City’s opponents Everton. Although I suspect Pep will have picked his team for Tuesday’s Champions League assignment in the same city before he picks this one. They’ll be a few puffed-out International globetrotters also looking beyond this fixture to the glamour tie, so this will be an examination of City’s attitude as much as anything.
Everton’s attitude won’t be in question, particularly after Sky’s snub. Plus, they are three for three at home. And took a point from the Etihad fixture, remember.  So this has got home win written all over it, right? Wrong. But it does have the look of a Coupon Stopper…
Scorecast: 1-1 at 17/2.
Long Shot: Draw & BTTS at 11/2.

Sunday
1.30pm Arsenal v Stoke City

Stoke could’ve done with this match being a month ago. Then the obstinate form that grappled seven ugly points out of five horrible games might well have been too much for a troubled Arsenal to handle. Now though, buoyed from a hat-trick of wins – two of them v AC Milan – the Gunners look more like the team whose home record is only bettered by Man City this season. A perfect ten wins v teams outside the Top Five suggests a bad day for Stoke. A single point from eight Top Half visits isn’t a very strong counter argument. 
Scorecast: 3-0 at 15/2.
Tap in: Arsenal Win at 3/10.
Smart Money: Arsenal Win To Nil at 13/10.

4pm Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur
We all know about Tottenham’s away record v the Top Four (or Five or Six, or whatever it is nowadays). One win in 18 matches… 11 defeats in Poch’s reign, including three this season… blah, blah. But Chelsea’s home form has been only just Top Six calibre this season – and barely Top Half form during 2018. 
Meanwhile Spurs have hit a nice groove, winning seven of this year’s ten matches and can not only (start to) lay the ghost of ‘that’ record, but also lay the boot in Chelsea’s Top Four hopes. An away win would leave Chelsea needing an 8pt turnaround, a draw keeps it at five.  
Scorecast: 1-1 at 11/2.
Tap in: Tottenham Draw No Bet at 21/20.
Smart Money: Draw & BTTS at 10/3.

Keep this frequency clear for some coupon busting Coupon Busters first thing Friday. 

Matt Nesbitt

Coupon Busters - Game Week 32

Thursday, March 29 2018

 

Matt Nesbitt goes on a vlaue hunt this Easter Weekend...

So much for a White Easter.

Here are my forecasts for the weekend…

Banker of the Week

We’ll start with two cheeky Doubles to put the farm on. First up, home wins for Man United (v Swansea) and Arsenal (v Stoke).

Swansea are no longer the Premier League’s ugly ducklings since Carlos Carvalhal took charge, but most of their good work happens on home turf. No wins in seven on the road – including three trips to lower divisions – suggest United will grind this out. 

And Arsenal look back to something like the team that has been second only to Man City at home this season. Stoke have smuggled out just a single point from eight Top Half visits. 

Bet: Double - Man United & Arsenal to both win at 8/13
  
11th place Watford host 10th Bournemouth free from the expectation of climbing the table – there’s a 4pt chasm between bigger boys Leicester and Everton. And free from any real danger of dragged into the relegation bun-fight below – there’s a 5pt buffer to the Bottom Six.

Watford have scored for ten home games on the bounce and 11 of Bournemouth’s last 12 have seen goals at both ends. So expect a smug goal-fest. 

And Burnley are back on track after consecutive wins, but the bookies still don’t trust them. So we’ll snap up the generous 1/2 Double Chance being dangled at West Brom and double up… 

Bet: Double - Watford v Bournemouth BTTS & Burnley Double Chance at 8/5
  

Value of the Week

Both Man United and Arsenal should win at a canter. No-one has cleaner sheets than David De Gea and Stoke forget to take a goal with them on their travels as often as not. And I’m going to throw Newcastle into the mix.

Toon are unbeaten in five at home and three of their four wins against Bottom Four fodder have been To Nil. And visitors Huddersfield have fired more blanks than anyone on the road this season. 

BUT… just in case the Easter bunny lays a chocolate egg on our plans, let’s build in a little security. I propose a Trixie bet, which will cover out stakes if one lets us down.

Bet: Trixie - Man United, Arsenal and Newcastle to all Win To Nil

Note: A Trixie is four bets (three doubles and a treble). So, for example, a £1 stake will cost £4 and pay a maximum return of £26.85 if they all come in. Any two pays £4.40 

TV Treble

Watch and earn with these three this weekend…

  1. Liverpool Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 8/5
  2. Arsenal Win to Nil 
  3. Tottenham Double Chance 8/13

Bet: Treble at 19/2

Long Shot:

Man City will travel to Everton with a few puffed-out International globetrotters in their ranks. Some of whom might let their minds wander to the match they would much rather play in – Tuesday’s Champions League tie at Liverpool. 

Everton have no such concerns and Big Sam will have them ready. They’ve already taken a point from the Etihad this season and although I wouldn’t back against City, Everton could force them to take the long way around. So the 8/1 on Man City to Win from Behind might be worth a nibble.  

Offer 

All the odds quoted are from Coral. If you haven’t got an account, sign up here and get £20 in free bets…

Happy Easter, Badmen. 

Dip your bread in.

Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 31 & FA Cup 6th Rnd

Wednesday, March 21 2018


We’re hitting a nice groove now, collecting another tidy 4.46pts from our Smart Bets and another 5.4 from Friday’s Coupon Busters. So along come the International friendlies to ruin everything.

GW 31

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

5 out of 7

0.11

Smart bets

5 out of 7

4.46

Long Shots

0 out of 1

-1.0

Scorecasts

1 out of 8

-1.0

 

Hero of the weekend was Bournemouth’s Junior Stanislas for his 89th minute winner that added 2.36pts profit into the pot.  
 

Coupon Busters

Pts Profit

Banker

1.4

Value Picks

5.4

Scorers

-2.0

 

Demon of the week was Saint Cedric of Soares. The Southampton right-back whose late, inexplicable left-wing burst and finish put rubbed Wigan’s noses in it – and rubbed out our 11/2 Correct Score.   

And my weekend cock-up – which is becoming a theme (eyes roll) was telling you to take Romelu Lukaku in the Last Goal Scorer market, not the First. I’ve given myself a Chinese burn.

Here’s what else we learned at the weekend…

It’s the best time of the season for punting…

There’s plenty of form in the book, all teams and players are bang at it with pots being dangled - or relegation being threatened. And – importantly – everyone knows exactly what they need to do. 
It is so much easier to accurately profile a match that has an agenda. Whether it is a cup second leg, overcoming a first leg deficit… or a team handpicking their matches to hit an end-of-season points total. It’s like getting the nod on a race that one horse is trying to win, but the other is just there for a blowout. But let’s not get into Cheltenham…

It’ll be an exciting end to the season for Stoke fans for a change…

I didn’t see the home defeat to Everton coming. Not sure even Big Sam did after just 1pt from the previous six away days – and that looted from an already burnt out West Brom. 

On the (not very) bright side, it has set up a grandstand finish to the season. Assignments at Arsenal (0pts), West Ham (1-3pts) and Liverpool (0pts) and home matches against Tottenham (0-1pts) and Burnley (1-3pts) will neither condemn, nor save the Potters. 

So their fate will be decided by successive six-pointers v Palace and Swansea in their final two matches. Both of whom might need their fate deciding too. 

Fuck Man City’s lap of honour, THAT’S where SKY should be on final day. And not just because we’re on the Relegation Treble of West Brom, Stoke & Southampton at 16/1. Now 10/3. 

Gawd knows how the World Cup in Russia is going to pan out…

No, I’m not talking about the platoons of hairy shouldered hooligans - all built like power lifters and charged up home-made vodka – itching to kick the world in the Gulags. Or, yer man Putin and his chemical brothers. I’m talking about the team that Gareth Southgate has got to try to build from the ливень дерьма (google it) on offer.

At the risk of going all Joey Barton, I can’t remember another period where no one has any idea who the goalkeeper, both centre backs, the left back, one central midfielder or the formation of the national team was. Never mind the best 11.

But…er… I’d still have a sneaky tenner on going out in the quarter-finals to Germany on penalties. 
 
I’ll be having a look at the internationals and if there is anything you should know about, you’ll know about it.

Yeah? 

Matt Nesbitt

Premier Injury INDEX

Sunday, March 18 2018

                           

                   

West Brom are languishing at the bottom from the Premier League, eight-points from safety, and Alan Pardew said his senior players would “need to deliver” if the Baggies stood any chance of remaining in the top-flight.

Jonny Evans certainly falls into that category, and the returning captain merits some serious consideration heading into the remaining two months of the campaign.

The centre-back has attracted a lot of attention during recent windows – Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United – all touted as potential destinations which saw his stock rise up-to £1.58 in late-December on the INDEX.

Evans is currently sitting around 27% below that high and with more interest expected in the summer, his price can only go one way on the INDEX.

Coupon Busters - GW 31 + FA Cup Qtrs

Saturday, March 17 2018

 

Short and sharp this week. I’ve got to see a man about a horse this afternoon.

Tally ho!

Banker of the Week

Only Liverpool at home to Watford qualifies as a Nailed-on pick in the PL this weekend. From the FA Cup quarter-finals we get another at Old Trafford, where United have to beat Brighton to save face – and their season. So there’s a Double. 

And I’m also prepared to add Tottenham to the party. The FA Cup is a bigger deal following their Champions League exit and the semi and the final will be played at home.

Bet: Treble – Liverpool, Tottenham and Man United to Win at 7/5.
  
Value of the Week

Despite not qualifying as a Nailed-on pick, I’m happy to go with Bournemouth to beat dead-team-walking West Brom. Ten of their last 11 have seen goals at both ends too (the anomaly being a clean sheet at Chelsea) so let’s double-up, shall we?

And then sprinkle a Man United Win To Nil on the top. No more wriggle room for Jose.

Bet: Double - Bournemouth Win & BTTS & Man United Win to Nil at 6/1


Goal Scorers

  • Romelu Lukaku has emerged as one of United’s stand-up (if not stand out) performers and loves playing the likes of Brighton. Last Scorer 11/4.
  • Heung-Min Son is the go to guy with Kane missing. Seven in his last four for Spurs. First Scorer 7/2.

Offer 

Sign up with William Hill and stake £10 on the Premier League this weekend and you’ll get £30 in free bets. Get stuck in here…

I'll be back on Monday to pick the bones out.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier Injury INDEX

Friday, March 16 2018

 

                                           

On Friday morning, Atletico Madrid confirmed that full-back Filipe Luis had suffered a leg fracture during the Europa League second-leg away win at Lokomotiv Moscow.

And with the World Cup exactly 13 weeks away, Luis’ price tumbled on the INDEX - falling from a high of £1.18 on Thursday to just 66p less than 24 hours later - based on the assumption that the Brazilian would miss the remainder of the season and the upcoming World Cup finals.

Now, that maybe the case, but there is also the possibility of a quick return. Joe Ledley was back in action after only 35 days ahead of the 2016 European Championships while other examples include Steven Reid [38 days] and Beram Kayal [67 days]. And for that reason alone, I see Luis as an excellent short-term punt….

Worst case scenario, Luis will be back in 2018/19 and I can guarantee you will be making money on the INDEX

PL Previews GW 31 plus FA Cup Qtr Finals

Thursday, March 15 2018

 

We’ve got a league and cup double this week. Four from the Premier League and the four FA Cup quarter-finals. 

As per, the Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too.  

Pow! Right in the kisser.

Premier League

Saturday:
3pm Bournemouth v West Brom

Bournemouth’s form-line can look a bit new-born giraffe-like sometimes, but a home match with West Brom is a good cure for the wobbles. To be fair, the sea-siders are pretty consistent against the Bottom Half – just two defeats in 14 all season. They’ve scored in their last 11 PL outings and won’t need many to win this.
Albion have beaten Bournemouth once this season and the pressure should be off a bit – unless the players are determined to get rid of Pardew (dumping in the sea at Bournemouth could work. Just saying…).
It’s seven defeats on the spin now for West Brom and three without a goal on the road.  
Scorecast: 3-1 at 14/1.
Tap in: Bournemouth Draw No Bet at 4/11.
Smart Money: Bournemouth Win & BTTS at 29/10.
 
3pm Huddersfield Town v Crystal Palace
Ooosh! A proper six-pointer this. A win for either team will give a big jolt of momentum for the final straight. Defeat will feel like stepping into a puddle of quicksand.
Huddersfield have picked up 4pts from their last two at home – and will have fond memories of their 3-0 win at Palace on the opening day. But failing to score against ten-man Swansea last week despite 81% possession, 30 shots, 12 corners and several kitchen sinks thrown, must be a worry. This is by a distance their most favourable match of the run-in. A draw might feel like a defeat.
Palace don’t really want a draw either, but after four pointless matches can’t afford to be fussy. They certainly can’t afford to lose but a repeat of their second half performance at Chelsea would do. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/2.
Long Shot: Huddersfield to Win From Behind at 16/1.
   
3pm Stoke City v Everton
This could be the tipping point for Stoke. They’re going to need at least 10pts from their eight matches and if they are not 3pts to the good after this, they might well need a full 6pts from their last two v Palace and Swansea. My bottom clenches at the thought of it.
It’s not out of the question though. Everton have managed just 1pt from their last six on the road (at West Brom, which you could argue isn’t even worth 1pt…).  But another here would probably satisfy Big Sam, so it could come down to the potency of Stoke’s forwards. And that’s bad news for Stoke. No team has scored fewer in the last ten matches.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap in: Double Chance Stoke & Draw at 4/11.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 11/4.
  
5.30pm Liverpool v Watford
Hmmm, Watford might walk onto one here…
These two met on the opening day, drawing 3-3 in a match that hinted at Liverpool’s season ahead. Goals for their Fab…er… Three, Mane, Firmino and Salah but some keystone Klopp defending that left you scratching your head. Since then though they been very efficient at home v teams outside the Top Five – W8 D3 with just four goals conceded. 
Watford have been equally inefficient on the road – perhaps even more so – failing to take so much as a point from seven visits to Top Half teams and only hitting the net once in their last seven away days.  They have a bit more work to do to bolt down the mid-table finish that will do very nicely thank you, but can do it at home. This is a free hit. But it could turn into a slap.
Scorecast: 3-0 at 6/1.
Tap in: Home Win at 2/9.
Smart Money: Liverpool/ Liverpool HT/FT at 4/6.

FA Cup

Saturday:
12.15pm Swansea City v Tottenham 

This might not be the cakewalk that the bookies think it is. 
Swansea have won all seven home games since Tottenham beat them here at the turn of the year. Playing their way out of trouble in the PL – or at least into the light rough – and transforming the mood at Liberty. So this is a no-pressure match for the Swans. 
Tottenham however need to win this, then the semi-final, then the final to hand in a good score card at the end of the season.  Form is no problem – the Juve defeat was the first in 19 matches – and they have won six of their seven at Bottom Half clubs. Kane or no Kane they are well able to progress to a ‘home’ semi-final.
Scorecast: 0-2 at 11/2.
Tap in: Tottenham to Win at 1/2.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10. 
 
7.45pm Man United v Brighton
This is a big game for United now. Like Tottenham, winning the FA Cup would nudge the needle on the season-ometer from ‘Average’ to ‘Good’. Unlike Tottenham they need a performance to win back hearts and minds. And that’s bad news for Brighton. Despite never looking that convincing at any stage since September, United’s home record can only be sniffed at by neighbours City. Just 7pts spilt all season. Expect all the big guns. And so long as one or two are firing, they’ll be in the hat for the semis. 
I dare say Chris Hughton would swap 6pts from his next two home games for an appearance in the FA Cup semi-final. In fact, he’d probably take 9pts from his next three in exchange for winning the thing. So can’t really make a case.   
Scorecast: 2-0 at 5/1.
Tap in: Man United to Win at 1/3.
Smart Money: Man United Win to Nil at Evens.
   
Sunday:
1.30pm Wigan v Southampton

If this was a horse race, I’d skip it and wait for the next. Too many variables make it a bit of a punt. But this is the business I’ve chosen, so here goes…
I fancy Southampton to pull one out of the fire. Results at Man United, Burnley and at home to Tottenham and Arsenal suggests talent. The insipid recent draw at home to Stoke and surrender at Newcastle hints at moodiness. But that could lift with the change of manager. Plus, five away games left could mean the 10pts (or so) required might be beyond them. So this has last hoorah written all over it.
Wigan’s home form is good… in League One. They sit second in the table, but have only won one of six v the Top Eight.  And they too have more realistic fish to fry. If you know what I mean.    
Scorecast: 0-1 at 11/2.
Smart Money: Southampton Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 17/10.
  
4.30pm Leicester City v Chelsea
Another tricky call here, Badmen. Chelsea’s midweek mugging will have taken a toll. Getting beaten in Barca is no drama, but delivering a season-best performance and still getting hit for three must sting. It was their fifth away defeat on the spin too. Cor blimey.
Leicester don’t have a Lionel Messi, but will smell blood. They’ve only managed 5pts from a possible 30pts against the Top Six so far, but have goals in them – although only one at a time in six of their last seven. And it’ll probably take two to get past Chelsea.
Four losses and two draws in their last nine has edged Chelsea out of the Top Four picture, which – again – ramps up the importance of the cup. I’m seeing goals at both ends. And maybe a replay to split them. 
Scorecast: 2-2 at 12/1. 
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 7/10.
Long Shot: Leicester/ Draw HT/FT at 14/1.

I’ll getting all up in your grill with some Coupon Busters at noon Friday. 

Don’t miss.

Matt Nesbitt  

What we learned from Game Week 30

Tuesday, March 13 2018

 

Caps doffed to Man City and Tottenham this weekend for delivering the big prices that took us into profit. A more sedate 4.5pts this week, but if you see me in traffic keep your windows up.

Unless you see Troy Deeney, that is. His missed penalty at Arsenal cost us a few tokens - but make sure your lane is clear before you flick the ‘v’s. He’s a big lad.

So we had to settle for one winning Coupon Buster, returning a 3.39pt loss. But the Weekend Previews make for more pleasant reading:

GW 30

Strikerate

Pts Profit

Tap Ins

6 out of 8

1.35

Smart bets

3 out of 9

0.55

Long Shots

1 out of 1

8.5

Scorecasts

1 out of 10

-2.5

 
This is what we learned this weekend…

Normal service is resumed at Arsenal. For now anyway… 

I took a punt on Arsenal’s domestic wobble to continue beyond their midweek win in Milan, but was wrong. They look galvanised. January recruits Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan already look Arsenal’s biggest threats and with four knock-overs to come at the Emirates (Stoke, Southampton, West Ham and Burnley) they could end up with the second best home record in the Premier League. It’s already superior to Tottenham, Liverpool and Chelsea. 

And don’t rule out a Europa League win. The 7/1 recommended in this post last week is already down to 4s.     

The best way to get past David De Gea…

My 0-0 call for Man United v Liverpool resulted in another portion of chips covered in my own piss. But if they played again tomorrow, I’d back it again. 

Jurgen Klopp clearly overlooked defending goal kicks in his preparation – and watching Lukaku ragdoll Lovren around was like watching Anthony Joshua kick a puppy to death. Neither scenario would happen again.  And how many back-heeled volleys can United’s centre backs keep firing into their own net!? I thought Jones’s effort at Wembley would take some beating, but Bailly topped it on Saturday. And it was the only moment that De Gea looked stretched. 

What are the odds on a Lindeloft rabona at the Etihad on April 7th to clinch the league title for City…?

It’s not always easy to predict what’s going to come out of a pundit’s mouth…

Following Jermain Jenas’ honest appraisal/ delusional ramblings (choose one) about his career last weekend, the pundit expelling frothy bile out of his mouth this week was Jamie Carragher.  
It’s prompted a heart-warming outpouring of ‘SACK HIM!’ from the world of punditry. Joey Barton, Richard Keys and Vinnie Jones* leading the angry mob. Because, after all, they have never done anything wrong have they? Oh, hang on…

*I’ve included Vinnie Jones under the broad umbrella of ‘pundit’ because ‘washed-up skint cartoon mockney villain’ upset the flow of the sentence.  

City are following the script…

Multiple reasons for Badmen enjoy Man City’s 2-0 cruise past Stoke. Unless you’re a Potters fan, of course. Or Man United. 

The match landed a 6.87pt profit for us – ticking in a Tap-in, Smart Bet and Scorecast – and applied another nail in Stoke’s Premier League coffin, which is good news for all who followed me in on the WBA, Southampton & Stoke Relegation Treble. Tipped at 16/1 in this post two weeks ago, it is now as short as 7/2.

City’s win also sets up the prospect of the Premier League title being won v United in the teatime kick-off on Saturday, April 7th. Sky TV will be foaming at the mouth.

Keep 'em peeled on Thursday for a Premier League/ FA Cup hybrid I've been developing in my underground bunker.

 Matt Nesbitt
  

 

Champions League Preview: Last 16 2nd legs

Monday, March 12 2018

 

Having a dabble on the Champions League this week? Have a gander at this before you do...

Real Madrid, Manchester City, Liverpool and Juventus have all booked their place in the Champions League quarter-finals after completing their last-16 victories the previous week. Bayern Munich have effectively joined that quartet after a 5-0 first leg win over Besiktas and must merely rubber-stamp their progress in Istanbul, but the three other clashes left to decide are more evenly-poised. Shakhtar Donetsk bring a one-goal lead to Rome while Barcelona and Chelsea are currently all-square, as are Manchester United and Sevilla.
 

Tuesday:
7:45pm Man Utd v Sevilla

Not for the first time, Jose Mourinho faced criticism for his side’s defensive approach in the first leg, which saw them draw 0-0 in Sevilla. The clean sheet could be put down to the work of goalkeeper David De Gea, who made eight saves – the most for a Manchester United goalkeeper in a Champions League game since Edwin Van Der Sar against Barcelona in 2011. The Red Devils should show more ambition here against a Sevilla side that have conceded 11 goals in their last six La Liga matches – only Levante have shipped more. United have won each of their three Champions League home games against Basel, Benfica and CSKA Moscow, winning two of them by a margin of more than one goal. Paul Pogba is back fit, Alexis Sanchez adds quality while Romelu Lukaku has answered some of his big game critics.
Scorecast: 2-0 at 6/1 with Betway as of 9th March
Tap-in: Manchester United win 4/6
Smart money: Goal Bands Team B: 0 at 11/10

7:45pm Roma v Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk reversed a half-time deficit to win the first leg 2-1, with Fred’s stunning free-kick putting them in front. Marlos, a Brazil-born Ukranian right-winger, was the driving force for Kroty, constantly looking to play balls in behind full-backs and will be a threat again at Stadio Olimpico. Roma though have the threat of Edin Dzeko, who has scored 18 goals in all competitions this term including a brace in a recent Serie A victory at Napoli. I Giallorossi though have accrued fewer domestic points at home than they have on the road, so we’re not backing them.
Scorecast: 1-2 at 12/1
Tap-in: Shakhtar win or draw 6/5
Smart money: Shakhtar win and over 2.5 goals 13/2

Wednesday:

7.45 Besiktas v Bayern Munich

Besiktas have not lost any of their last 13 home games in European competition, which can be attributed partly to the notoriously intimidating atmosphere in Istanbul. Bayern Munich will be glad therefore, that they completed the job on their own turf with a 5-0 first leg win. Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski both bagged braces when the two sides met at the Allianz Arena last month, with Kingsley Coman also among the goals after Domagoj Vida’s early red card. The Turks though will want to exit the Champions League with dignity and with Bayern likely to rotate and perhaps drop the intensity of their play here, we’re backing a tight encounter.
Scorecast: 0-0 at 18/1
Tap-in: Under 3.5 goals at 7/10
Smart money: Under 2.5 goals at 17/10

Barcelona v Chelsea
It has been a poor start to 2018 for Chelsea, who have won just two of their eight Premier League games. The possibility of a successful season for the champions therefore, can only be salvaged with victory over Barcelona, with whom they drew the first leg 1-1. While there are positives to take from their unified display at Stamford Bridge, they still have it all do at Camp Nou. There are reasons why Ernesto Valverde’s side are unbeaten in La Liga – and why they have lost just two home games in all competitions since April 2016. The brilliance of Lionel Messi – who scored his first goal in his ninth appearance against Chelsea in London – may be considered one reason, but the midfield is another. Paulinho’s power, Rakitic’s ball-retention and Busquets’ bite provides the perfect foil for the timeless creativity of Andres Iniesta, who is expected to be fit here. A tough night could be in store therefore, for Antonio Conte’s off-colour Blues.
Scorecast: 4-0 at 12/1
Tap-in: Half-time/Full-time Barcelona – Barcelona at 21/20
Smart money: Team B (Chelsea) Total Goals Under 0.5 at 11/10

Good luck!

Ben Dinnery, Premier Injuries.

P.S. Betting Badman Matt Nesbitt will be back tomo with a review of the weekend's Premier League action and a few thoughts on what we learned.

 

Coupon Busters - Game Week 30

Friday, March 9 2018

 

Typical isn’t it? Couple of good results and now he thinks he can land 275/1 and 429/1 shots in the same week… Eyes roll.

So…er… are you interested or not…?

Thought so. 

Banker of the Week

Only two Match Results stand out in a coupon littered with six-pointers from every section of the Premier League.

Chelsea aren’t in the best fettle, but will be much happier facing a patched-up Palace than their last three assignments (Barcelona, Man United & Man City). And need a win tucked in their belt ahead of Wednesday’s  Champions League 2nd leg.

I fancy Man City will want to get domestic business taped off asap, to support their European effort. Plus, Stoke have more realistic fish to fry in matches to come.  

The Double looks solid, if unspectacular at 8/13. But I’m not done there…

You can make a good case for Both Teams to Score at seven of the ten Premier League grounds this weekend. But the two I’m taking to trial are both on Sunday.

It has been ten matches since Arsenal kept a clean sheet and all their eggs are now in the Europa League basket. Watford meanwhile are on the up after three wins in four and Deeney and Co will be cracking their knuckles at the prospect of doing the double over Arsenal for the first time in… I dunno… ever?

After Wednesday’s schooling, Tottenham’s credentials face a Bourne-mouth ultimatum – and they have a habit of starting slow. Their hosts won’t. And the numbers are good here too. Nine of Bournemouth’s last ten and eight of Spurs’ last 11 on the road have delivered at both ends.

  • Bet: Chelsea & Man City Win Double at 8/13
  • Bet: BTTS Double – Arsenal v Watford & Bournemouth v Tottenham at 19/10

 

Value of the Week

It looks a good week for the Pools (remember them?). There are at least eight very competitive contests, so likely to be a few Draws around. 

Man United and Liverpool always draw (four on the spin)… Burnley have drawn four of their last seven away and West Ham can’t afford anything less… Brighton have drawn three of their last four away and Everton will take any point in a storm right now… And I can’t split Huddersfield and Swansea. 

On top of the numbers, none of the teams mentioned would turn their nose up at a point this weekend. But to give ourselves a safety blanket, let’s place a dandy doodle Yankee on all four to Draw

  • Bet: Yankee – Man United v Liverpool, Everton v Brighton, Huddersfield v Swansea & West Ham v Burnley to all Draw.  

Note: A Yankee is 11 bets (six doubles, four trebles and a four-fold). So a £1 stake will cost £11 and pay a maximum return of £275.83 (if all four matches are drawn). Any double will return £9.30.

If you’re feeling fruity, you might want to turn it up one louder…

I quite like the look of 1-1 in all of the above and - just for fun, no mortgage money - will be having a little nibble on a Correct Score Trixie.

  • Bet: Man United v Liverpool, Everton v Brighton & West Ham v Burnley to all Draw 1-1.  

Note: A Trixie is four bets (three doubles and a treble). So a £1 stake will cost £3 and pay a maximum return of £429 if they all come in. Any two pays £45.50. 
 

TV Treble

Watch and earn with these three this weekend…

- Man United v Liverpool Under 2.5 Goals
- Chelsea to beat Palace
- Arsenal v Watford BTTS

  • Bet: Treble at 7/2

 

Offer of the Week 

All these prices are avaiilable at Billy Hills. Sign up with William Hill and stake £10 on the Premier League this weekend and you’ll get £30 in free bets. Get stuck in here…

Happy Mother's Day.

Matt Nesbitt

Premier League Preview - Game Week 30

Thursday, March 8 2018

 

I know what you’re thinking…

After a decent return last week, stand by for more trumpet blowing about my 16/1 Juventus tip to win the Champions League (Feb 13th post)…

Well, you’re bang wrong. Just updating for those Badmen who took the plunge with me. 

Juve are now 8/1. And that price will only shorten if they draw Roma or Shakhtar in the quarters, both of whomed I’d fancy them to get past. Then we’ll be in handy trading position. I’ll keep you posted. 

Now, to Premier League business…

An ugly set of fixtures to play with this week. 

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too.  

Eyes down…

Saturday:
12.30pm Man United v Liverpool

Could be a runner-up play-off at Old Trafford.
Still plenty of points to be played, of course, But these two won’t be dropping many on the run-in. United have the incentive of opening a 5pt gap with a home win, but we all know that Jose would take a 0-0 right now to keep the gap at 2pts. Only two teams have scored at the theatre of increasingly dull dreams this season. But no team has scored more than Liverpool on the road. No… not even Man City.
United have only played in the second half of their last two, coming from behind to beat Chelsea and Palace. They will need to score first in this one, or keep Liverpool out.
Scorecast: 0-0 at 10/1.
Tap in: First Half Draw at 11/10.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 10/3.
 
3pm Everton v Brighton
Although both teams are locked on 34pts it has been a contrasting few weeks for two managers. 
Hughton and Brighton arrive at Goodison unbeaten in five with more goals in the last four matches than their previous 16. But they are homers (stop it). Just 1pt and a single goal from seven matches away to Top Half teams should bring them down to earth a bit. And so will this…
Everton’s home form over the last eight would put them in the Top Five. Wins over Palace, Leicester, Swansea, Huddersfield and West Ham in that run suggest they are equipped to handle Bottom Half teams. Which Brighton were until ten minutes ago. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at Evens.
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 18/5.
   
3pm Huddersfield Town v Swansea City
Huddersfield’s dangerous ploy of choosing the matches they think they can get something from, relies on them then doing so. It worked in the two matches (v Bournemouth and West Brom) bookended by covering up and laying on the ropes at Man United and Tottenham. But didn’t in the previous two (at home to West Ham and away to Stoke). This is the first of five matches v teams within a 6pt bracket. Not quite a must-win, but certainly a must-not-lose.  
Swansea have their tails up (Swans have tails, right?) after four home wins on the spin, but are still ugly ducklings away from their nest. Their 5pts from six trips to Bottom Half teams needs to be at least 6pts come Sunday. And I reckon it will.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Smart Money: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 7/2.
  
3pm Newcastle United v Southampton
This is the first of six away games still to be negotiated by Southampton. That’s a tough ask even if you are a decent team in good form. The Saints are neither. Oh and two of their home matches are v Chelsea and Man City. This might not be the last chance saloon, but it’s definitely on the same bus route.
Their 0-0 draw at home to Stoke can’t have been good for confidence and this looks like another six-pointer.
Newcastle will look to carry on from where they left off at St James’ – Man United’s scalp will still be hanging in the home dressing room. And Toon have punched their weight against Bottom Third bedfellows, winning six (D4 L1) of 11. And I can’t keep putting 1-1 draws.     
Scorecast: 2-1 at 9/1. 
Tap in: Newcastle Draw No Bet at 4/5.
Smart Money: Newcastle Win & Both Teams to Score at 24/5.

3pm West Brom v Leicester City
The wheels have well and truly come off West Brom now. Five defeats on the bounce – six if you include Southampton in the FA Cup – plus the dressing room squabbles and swinging sword above Alan Pardew’s head, make West Brom the most popular opponent in the PL right now. Leicester will welcome the chance to kick a team when they’re down and put an end to a sticky run of form themselves. 
Five without a win, including home matches v Swansea, Stoke and Bournemouth is no way to prepare for an FA Cup 6th Round tie with Chelsea. Leicester’s best chances of an away win before the end of the campaign.
Scorecast: 1-2 at 9/1.
Tap in: Leicester Draw No Bet at 8/11.
Smart Money: Leicester Win & Both Teams to Score at 9/2.

3pm West Ham v Burnley
Cripes, this is another one with ‘Draw’ written all over it… This fence is giving me splinters.
West Ham are unbeaten in their last four at home, but will be as disappointed with the points dropped v Palace and Bournemouth as they are chuffed with wins over Watford and West Brom. The Hammers have got three of the Top Four still to play, so this one (plus Southampton and Stoke at home) look the best chance of hitting 39pts. Setting up a twitchy last day hosting his old club Everton. Ooof! 
Burnley finally got that 12-without-a-win monkey off their back last weekend and if you had to name a claret and blue winner, it would be them. But six away draws, including four from the last seven on the road tells me…
Scorecast: 1-1 at 5/1.
Tap in: Double Chance Burnley or Draw at 8/13.
Long Shot: Burnley Win & Both Teams to Score at 13/2.

5.30pm Chelsea v Crystal Palace
You have to feel for Palace at the moment. They treatment room looks like the Somme in 1914 and even the fit players looked broken men after their 93rd minute mugging by Man United last Monday. It’s just 2pts from six matches now for Palace, points at home to Newcastle and away to West Ham about as much as they’ve looked capable of. 
Chelsea’s last few weeks hasn’t been a lot better – four defeats from five in the PL. Man City and United they could probably take, but Bournemouth and Watford…? Minds will no doubt be wandering to Wednesday and Camp Nou, but this could be positive – with places up for grabs.
Scorecast: 3-0 at 7/1.
Tap in: Chelsea to Win at 3/10.
Smart Money: Chelsea to Win To Nil at Evens.

Sunday:
1.30pm Arsenal v Watford

Arsenal, eh? What do you make of them? Their home stats still make them a decent side. Only 1pt worse off than Liverpool at Anfield, just 2pts less effective than Spurs at Wembley and they’ve scored more goals than both of them. Five defeats from seven is as bad as it has got in the Wenger era, though. And that’s a long time.
Watford have managed to arrest their slide, which started about November time as far as anyone can recall. Three home wins on the bounce has got them back looking up rather than down, but 0pts from six matches to Top Half teams doesn’t support their case here. Looking at their remaining away trips – Liverpool, Tottenham and Man United - it won’t get much easier than this. And they’ll like the fact Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet in 11 Premier League matches. 
Scorecast: 2-2 at 14/1.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 8/13.
Long Shot: Watford Win & Both Teams to Score at 8/1.

4pm Bournemouth v Tottenham  
The midweek lesson at the hands of Juventus will have been a body blow for Spurs and takes this from a routine assignment to a tricky one. But Tottenham have momentum and form – Wednesday was the first blip in 18 matches (all comps). It might even galvanise them for the run-in – Top Four and the FA Cup would still be a very good season.
Bournemouth have only lost one in their last ten. But their liking for ‘total football’ usually means they come unstuck against the Top Half. Just three wins from 15 attempts so far (D2 L10). Expect goals at both ends too. There have been in nine of Bournemouth’s last ten and eight of Spurs’ last 11 on the road.
Scorecast: 1-2 at 7/1.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 7/10.
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Both Teams to Score at 19/10.
Long Shot: Tottenham to Win from Behind at 15/2.

Monday:
8pm Stoke City v Man City  

Things have never really been pretty at Stoke. Even when they are winning. Paul Lambert’s stint has been deliberately ugly to rescue the season, but squeezing just 4pts out of five teams – four of which are in jabbing range – isn’t enough. And now it might get gruesome. 
The 29 goals conceded in seven matches v the Top Five were under a different manager and under different circumstances, but doesn’t bode well. Especially as they face three of them again after this one. City are picking their punches a bit nowadays, but will want this title in the bag asap. Suspect this will be over by half-time.   
Scorecast: 0-2 at 11/2.
Tap in: Man City Win at 2/9.
Smart Money: Man City Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 23/20.

Coupon Busters, y’say? Noon tomorrow.

Now, get to the chopper.


Matt Nesbitt

What we learned from Game Week 29

Tuesday, March 6 2018

 

Hope this weekend put a big smile on your face. No, I don’t mean listening to Jermaine Jenas’ rib-tickling re-imagining of his career – which I’ll come onto shortly – I mean the fistful of dollar winning bets this weekend.

It’s nice when things go for you – but props to Riyad and Nemanja for their timely wonder strikes that helped deliver a tidy 33.48pts profit from the Match Previews and another couple of scheckles (2.6pts) from the Coupon Busters.      

  GW 29          Strike-rate       Pts Profit
 Tap-ins  8 out of 8  3.75
 Smart Bets  6 out of 10  14.73
 Long Shots  0 out of 1  -1.0
 Scorecasts  3 out of 10  16.0

 

 

 

 

Hope you were on a few.

This is what we learned this weekend…

Matic doesn’t score tap-ins…

It was a little bit like the bad old days at Palace on Monday night. Matic’s Fergie-time screamer kept United in second spot – until Saturday, anyway – and maintained our 100% strike rate of Tap-ins this weekend. But I’m not convinced by United. Coming from behind to beat a patched-up Palace is not the same as doing it against a good Tottenham team (which used to happen most seasons, as I recall) and a world away from clawing back Bayern Munich in a CL Final.  Enjoy Jose-time. It won’t last.

Arsenal are the worst team in the Premier League…

In 2018. Five defeats from eight in the league and eight from 14 in all comps is as bad as it has been in the Wenger era. By a distance. But not even that tells the whole story…

Of those five defeats, away at Spurs and even the Cup Final defeat to Man City you could probably swallow in isolation. But at Bournemouth, Swansea and Brighton…? And, oh yeah, Nottm Forest. Then at home to that Swedish pub team…?! I’m going to need an emoji in minute. 

Even the wins pose ugly questions: Palace and Everton had both rolled over inside 22 minutes (4-0 and 3-0 up on each occasion). Ostersunds? Pfft. So out scrapping Chelsea is their only creditable performance this year (and Conte’s lot haven’t beaten anyone outside the Bottom Four since).

Ready for the punchline?

You’ll get 7/1 to win the Europa League. I’ve had a silly few notes on it.

Jermaine Genius and his missing medals and caps…

Poor JJ. I had no idea he’d had all his medals and caps stolen by that pesky Golden Generation of better midfield players. Lording it with their better managers… more talented team mates… bigger clubs… and superior motivation. 

It’s no wonder he didn’t get the… ahem… 120 England caps that he could have (copyright Jake Humphrey, 2018). 

Now, Jackanory Jenas isn't unique in his rose-tinted view. We've all got a mate (or ten) in the pub who coulda woulda shoulda done it all if it hadn't been for fast women and Blue WKD. 

But let’s just break down this wealth of ‘greatest ever’ English midfield talent that held poor Jermain back… 

Stevie and Lamps, fine. Hargreaves and Carrick, yep okay they were decent. But now I'm struggling a bit. Gareth Barry…? Erm...Scott Parker…? James Milner…? Tom fucking Huddlestone…?

If you think you dreamt it, check it out again here…

Also, I've today learned that Jermain has changed the spelling of his surname from Genas to Jenas to call himself ‘JJ’.

Think that should be a ‘P’, JG…

Our Relegation Treble is looking up...

Another West Brom defeat and the Southampton v Stoke stalemate didn’t do our treble on the three of them to go down any harm at all. Unless you are not on yet. I flagged it at 16/1 last week, it’s now trading at 8/1 (Bet365 and SkyBet). 

West Brom are already in the taxi with the meter running. But I can’t see Southampton scraping together enough points from their six – yes, SIX - away matches. So they will probably have to beat Chelsea and Man City at home.

‘Room for one more, mate…?’

Stoke only have three winnable looking matches left (Everton and Palace at home, Swansea away). And another couple of drawables (West Ham away, Burnley at home). That’ll add up to 38, which might do. But the Palace and Swansea matches are the last two to play. And could be six… nine… fuck it, 12-pointers by then.

‘Can we have three in the back, mate…?'

See you next Thursday for more of the same. Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

 

  
 

Coupon Busters - Game Week 29

Friday, March 2 2018

 

I’ll say Coupon and you say Buster.

Coupon…

Coupon…

C’mon party people. You can do better than that. I said, I’ll say Coupon and you say Buster.

COUPON…

COUPON…

There we go. Oo-eh, oo-eh!

Let’s get this site post started…

Banker

The two standouts are Tottenham and Liverpool to beat Huddersfield and Newcastle. All four teams arguably have bigger - or at least, different fish to fry. 

Tottenham and Liverpool have Champions League business midweek. And Huddersfield and Newcastle will be targeting more realistic assignments to stack up enough points to stay in the division. So we can expect low-key, professional home wins. 

This is reflected in the prices: 1/5 and 2/9 are of no interest. Likewise the 1/2 Double. 

So I propose a sprinkling of Man City to beat Chelsea on the top. Pep has the scent of the title in his nostrils and Wednesday’s CL tie is a gimme, so the 4/6 is fair. And with two legs down by 7.30pm Saturday, it’ll mean we are sat on a 7/5 ticket on City to win at home on Sunday. A good place to be. 

  • Bet: Tottenham, Liverpool & Man City Treble at 7/5

Value of the Week

A 90th minute equaliser snatched 4/1 and 6/1 winning tickets out of our hand at Burnley last weekend. Largely thanks to referee Bobby Madley’s deft interception in midfield. 

That woulda coulda shoulda been Burnley’s seventh 1-0 win of ten this season. I’m prepared to go in again at 6/1. 

My Coupon Buster this week is Brighton v Arsenal. The ninth best home team v the ninth best away team. The Seagulls soaring, the Gunners misfiring. While it’s true that Arsenal have a record of pulling things out of the bag, the upcoming Milan trip is a big enough spanner in the works for me to have a punt on Brighton laying the boot in. 

  • Bet: Burnley to win 1-0 at 6/1
  • Bet: Brighton Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 9/2

TV Treble

Watch and earn with these three this weekend...

Burnley to beat Everton
Liverpool to beat Newcastle
Brighton v Arsenal – Both Teams to Score  

  • Bet: Treble at 21/5

Goal Scorers

Hot Shots:

  • Jamie Vardy is five from six and will enjoy the wide open space on Bournemouth’s beach. 3/1 First Goal.
  • Mo Salah has seven in six and five of them have been Liverpool’s last goal. Another Last Goal here pays 5/2.

Wild Cards:

  • Abdoulaye Doucoure has scored some big goals this season and might be due one in a pivotal match. 9/1 First Goal or 10/3 Anytime.
  • Heung-Min Son is a likely starter v Huddersfield and has back in the goals after a nine-match drought. 7/2 First Goal.

Offer 

Open a William Hill  account today with a £10 bet and get and instant £30 in free bets. Get stuck in here…

Matt Nesbitt has left the building.

Premier League Preview - Game Week 29

Thursday, March 1 2018

 

Into the final lap now and there are six-pointers all over the place. In the Top Four, in the Bottom Six… Eight… or is it Ten. 

Only mid-table obscurities like Burnley, Everton, Leicester and Bournemouth are free from the nerve jangling – and even they are playing each other! 

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value out of the bookies. And any Long Shots are decent priced punts that have some statistical merit. 

All Scorecasts are priced up too.  

Sabrina, don’t just stare at it… eat it!

Saturday:
12.30pm Burnley v Everton

Burnley were just a minute or so away from breaking their 11-without-a-win hoodoo, until referee Bobby Madley made a key interception in midfield to set up Southampton’s equaliser. But surely nothing can go wrong this time…
Everton have lost their last four on the road and murmurs for Big Sam to be replaced have already started. His abrasive style of play is an acquired taste at the best of times, but when it only produces two wins from 12 and a measly 8pts from a possible 42 away from home it just hurts your eyes.
Burnley’s mid-season slump means they are now only 3pts ahead of Everton. Should be 6pts by Saturday afternoon.
Scorecast: 1-0 at 6/1.
Tap in: Burnley Draw No Bet at 4/6.
Smart Money: Burnley Win & Under 3.5 at 19/10
 
3pm Leicester City v Bournemouth
Like Burnley above them (for now) Leicester are tucked in the number 10 position. Just behind the big hitters in the Top Six, so no real pressure to deliver on a regular basis. And just ahead of the blood and thunder in mid-table, so they can play with a bit of freedom.  
Saturday’s visitors are aspiring to join that club but do have the unfortunate habit of urinating all over their snacks, just when you think have turned a corner. The late two-goal revival at home to Newcastle last time out might have put them on an upswing though, so I don’t see them leaving Leicester with nothing.
Scorecast: 1-1 at 6/1.
Tap in: Both Teams to Score at 4/6.
Long Shot: Draw & Both Teams to Score at 7/2.
   
3pm Southampton v Stoke City
I think both of these could go down.
Both have got ugly sets of fixtures to contend with in the run-in: six of Southampton’s ten matches are away, Stoke play four of the Top Five. And both are, well, a bit rubbish.
Too much charity from the Saints has meant just one win in the last 16 matches. And that was against the surely already condemned West Brom. But points against Tottenham, Man United and Arsenal hint at more under the bonnet. 
Stoke’s resolve has stiffened under new boss Lambert, replacing defeats with draws (three in the last four). But they need to turn those into wins to stay afloat. 
Scorecast: 1-1 at 6/1.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 10/3.
  
3pm Swansea City v West Ham
With a third – perhaps even a half – of the Premier League feeling the rabid threat of relegation nipping at their ankles, there will be six-pointers all over the place from here on in. Ooh, here’s one now.
Swansea’s recent good form would put them in the Top Six over the last six matches, but they were rocked by a four-goal slap at Brighton. They are three from three at home, including Arsenal and Liverpool scalps.
The Hammers are in decent nick too. Top Seven based on the last six, in fact. It’s not so pretty on the road – they’ve lost their last two and only managed one away win all season. Reckon Moyes would take a draw right now, but have an inkling Swansea might edge it.
Scorecast: 2-1 at 9/1.
Tap in: Swansea Draw No Bet at 8/11.
Smart Money: Swansea Win & Both Teams to Score at 9/2.

3pm Tottenham v Huddersfield Town
Spurs are building up a head of steam and you fancy the only thing that can stop the inevitable here is letting minds wander to Wednesday’s big one with Juventus. 
We can expect a bit of tinkering, especially as they have a vulnerable centre of defence at the mo – Alderweireld is out and Vertonghen a doubt. But anything less than 3pts would be a blow to Top Four hopes.
Huddersfield will be looking ahead too – to matches v Swansea, Palace, Newcastle, Brighton and Watford. That run will shape their season and determine whether they are back to play this fixture again next year. 
Scorecast: 2-0 at 5/1.
Tap in: Home Win at 2/11 (but don’t, just don’t).
Smart Money: Tottenham Win & Under 3.8 Goals at Evens.

3pm Watford v West Brom
If Watford could’ve chosen a fixture this weekend…
In truth, no one would quibble about West Brom at home right now. But Watford’s funny old season looks set to be steered away from disastrous, back towards decent again. Having veered off from exceptional, straight through good and careering headlong into frustrating. Back to back home wins v Chelsea and Everton (and likely here) will set up the Hornets for a tough run-in – they’ve got to go to Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham and Man United (oooff!). But it looks less of a Dead Man Walking scenario than it might have. 
Sadly the same cannot be said for West Brom. The off the pitch chaos tops Watford’s, but only a staying up specialist like Tony Pulis could save them now. Oh, hang on. Didn’t they… 
Scorecast: 2-1 at 8/1.
Smart Money: Watford Win & Both Teams to Score at 15/4.

5.30pm Liverpool v Newcastle United
It stands out as the home banker of the week, but things are rarely straightforward with these two…
Liverpool have Champions League business to attend to on Tuesday, but at 5-0 up it should be a cruise. So this will be the tune-up for their possible Runner-up Play-off against Man United next weekend. All of which is bad news for Newcastle.
Toon are on the up, no doubt. Three draws against mid-table bedfellows and a chest-pumping Man United win has given them a bit of momentum. But they have still got to negotiate four of the Top Six before they add up the points and that doesn’t allow for much wriggle room. I can’t see them upsetting Liverpool, but the last five visitors have scored at Anfield. So that’s a line of enquiry for us. 
Scorecast: 3-1 at 9/1.
Tap in: Home Win at 2/9.
Smart Money: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score at 33/20.

Sunday:
1.30pm Brighton v Arsenal

The Premier League’s 9th best home team plays the 9th best away team. 
I know, I know - lies, damn lies and statistics and all that. But while I’m at it…  Recent form (last six) also puts Brighton above their visitors. And yet the bookmakers make Arsenal odds-on favourites. Hmmm.
The Seagulls have won their last two at home, scoring seven goals in the process – as many as they managed in the previous eight at home. So their tails are up (Seagulls have tails, right?).
Arsenal have had a bit of a beating in all formats from all angles in recent weeks. Their one away win from the last seven was against Swedish pub team Ostersunds (Nordic for The Red Lion. Probably). The Gunners have form for pulling one out of the bag, but I’m tempted by the stats – and the value. 
Scorecast: 2-1 at 12/1.
Tap in: Brighton (+2) Match Handicap at 1/3
Smart Money: Brighton & Under 3.5 at 9/2.

4pm Man City v Chelsea  
When Man City went to the Bridge and dismantled the Champions in September, we all had a glimpse of what was to come. Since then predicting Man City matches has been all about judging what their opponents have got in them.  And Chelsea haven’t had much in the last couple of months on the road. Just one win in seven (v Brighton) and limp losses to Arsenal, Watford and Man United make it hard to see anything different here.
It’s all about business for Pep and City now, so expect as many clean sheets as 3s, 4s and 5-goal performances between now and the middle of May. Or perhaps end of May.
Anyway, one will probably do here. 
Scorecast: 2-0 at 15/2.
Tap in: Home Win at 8/13.
Smart Money: Man City Win & Both Teams to Score at 21/10. 

Monday:
8pm Crystal Palace v Man United  

Just 2pts from the last five matches is threatening to tag an unhappy ending onto Woy Hodgson’s wescue fairy tale. Their crippling injury list is ill-timed and a run-in consisting of three Top Five trials and at least five six-pointers is equally cruel. But if you lose nine of your first 11, thems the beats.
United have been functional rather than impressive on the road this season (possibly since Fergie, actually), so we know what to expect. Jose will back up the bus into position, leave inspector De Gea to handle any stray fares. Then rely on his galaxy of oddly lop-side, strangely languid and clearly bored super-duper stars to make the difference in the last half hour.       
Scorecast: 0-1 at 5/1. 
Tap in: Away Win at 8/15.
Smart Money: Draw/ Man United HT/ FT at 3/1.
Long Shot: 0-2 at 6/1.

Y’know those Coupon Busters I do for you…? Lunchtime tomorrow. 

Yeah?

Matt Nesbitt

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

Punter. Tipster. Collector. Of winnings.

Meet the good boy behind Badman Betting...

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

The planned football career that would allow Matt to spend every afternoon in the bookies was cut mercifully short. So he was able to spend his mornings there too.

But rather than spunk his (sweet) FA pension on a day-tripper to Palookaville, Matt played smart. He watched, he listened. Learned his trade and earned a reputation.

But the bookies don’t like a winner...

First they closed his accounts. Then they tried legal action to shut down his tipping services. Now they employ him.

Matt has been providing winning football advice since 1998. And whether it has been via post, premium rate phone line, email, TV or Twitter – he has always made punters money.

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