What we learned from Game Week 27

Tuesday, February 13 2018

 

That Matt Nesbitt, he’s just like Man United/ Arsenal/ Bournemouth [choose one] and to a lesser extent Everton/ Burnley/ Watford (choose another].

You just start thinking you can rely on him and he pulls a Phil Jones on you…

It was a bad weekend, Badmen. With a few bad calls and a bit of bad luck. 

I’ll take responsibility for swerving the Tottenham and Liverpool Wins, in favour of the better value Both Teams to Score picks. Greedy. A Chinese burn has been administered. 

But I stand by West Brom to score at Chelsea (they should’ve). And our cause wasn’t helped by Sturridge’s brittle hamstring pinging moments into the match. 

And I’d back the same Bournemouth and Man United bets if they played the same match again tomorrow. 

But instead we’ve got a much more glamourous midweek to tackle, which I’ll get onto in a minute…

You’re looking smart…

Of course, you might’ve collected this weekend. And I sincerely hope you did. 

Because every Badman bets differently. You might just follow Tap-ins, or Smart Bets, or not get out of bed for less than a Long Shot. You might pick and choose.

Last week everyone was snorting their Sherbert Dib-Dabs off the bookies tits. The two previous weeks it was the Tap-in merchants who were hosing rentable ladies in Babycham.   

But overall it is the Smart Bettors who have had the most cake rubbed in their backs. We’re 5pts in front since we tweaked the format, so if you’re wavering on which category fits best – it’s the Smart move.

And here’s another…

An Old Lady that is worth a punt…

Tottenham tackle Juventus tonight in the Champions League. And while – quite rightly – all the talk is about Harry Kane; how great he is, how many zillion pounds he is worth and how he is DEFINITELY going to win the World Cup for England… (well, perhaps not yet. But you wait until the summer).

There are a couple of things that you might not – and definitely should – be aware of about Tottenham’s opponents, Juventus.

NOTE: I am writing this ahead of the first leg, so putting it out there – like a Huddersfield substitute. But whatever happens in Turin, I think this is valid. Where was I? Oh yeah…

Juventus and Napoli are pissing Serie A. Juve are currently playing second fiddle, a point off the top but 14pts ahead of third place. Which is relative, I know. But get this…

Juventus have conceded…ahem… once in their last 15 matches. Once. In 15

They’ve also won their last ten and only tasted defeat once in 22 (18 D3 L1). And let’s not forget they have reached two of the last three finals, losing to Real Madrid last season (who weren’t bad) and Barcelona in 2015 (also reasonable). 

However, Juventus are currently trading at 16/1 to win the Champions League. And that, Badmen, is value. 

It’s three times the price of Barca and Bayern (5/1), but I’d call it closer to Even Money if they were going head-to-head with either team over two legs. They’ve got more pedigree than Man City (too short at 10/3) and PSG (also 5/1), who look capable of taking care of Real (8s).  

Still not feeling it? Okay, one last point…

Juventus are currently priced the same as Liverpool and Man United to lift the trophy. Worth a punt in my view.  

Ciao for now.

Matt Nesbitt

UPDATE: Wednesday 14th...

Thought I'd take a welcome break from opening Valentine's cards to update on Juventus v Spurs.

Juve's price went down to single figures on Betfair at 2-0 up. But is now as big as 28/1 in places. If they can get past Tottenham, I'd still fancy them to go to the last four - and then you'd have a very tradable price. 

 


 

Ben Dinnery

Ben Dinnery

@BenDinnery

Ben is football’s leading injury specialist. The ‘go-to’ guru for big hitters like Sky Sports, ESPN and NBC Sports when they need data. Or the BBC, talkSPORT and the broadsheets when a quote is required. His unique insight has helped provide a better understanding of what is really happening in the treatment rooms.


Johnny Wilson

Johnny Wilson

@johnny_wilson5

Johnny is a respected physiotherapist and sports scientist, specialising in football injuries and rehab. Johnny has headed up the medical departments at Chesterfield, Scunthorpe and Notts County. Overseeing everything from player-specific training loads to pre-signing medicals. He has a proven record working with elite athletes in Private Practice and is regularly called upon throughout Europe to deliver presentations on the latest rehab innovations.


Matt Nesbitt

Matt Nesbitt On TipTV

@MattNesbitt16

Matt's short, unremarkable football career was ended by his own bad driving. His long, distinguished career as a football tipster was ended by his own good advice. Because bookmakers don’t like a winner. First, they closed his accounts. Then his members’ accounts. Then his tipping service. And now they employ him as a consultant. Funny old game.


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