Premier League Preview - Game Week 25: Wednesday

Wednesday, January 31 2018

 

Winners from all three matches last night, with the 5/1 Correct Score taking the cake at West Ham. Seven more to tackle tonight - if you can drag yourself away from Transfer Deadline Day… 

The Tap Ins are included regardless of price, so I’d reserve them for topping up Accas at best. Or even bypass them totally. 

The Smart Money bets are the best way of dredging a bit of value from the match. And any Long Shots are decent priced (usually 3/1 or bigger) punts that have some statistical merit. 

Scorecasts are priced up too. 

Here me now...

Wednesday:
Chelsea v Bournemouth

Antonio is a bit of a miserable Conte these days, isn’t he? We’re led to believe that his ‘orrible boss has a penchant for lanky strikers that no-one else wants. But I daresay Eddie Howe would swap squads. 
Chelsea’s 3-0 swatting of Newcastle was their first home win in four but you’ve got to think their flair players will breach Bournemouth’s defence. Everybody bar Newcastle and Swansea have.  So can they score? And how many. Top Six evidence suggests no. And Chelsea have been efficient v the Bottom Third – 30 from 33pts.
Tap in: Chelsea Win at 2/7
Smart Money: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 at 6/5
Long Shot: Chelse Win, BTTS: YES, Under 11.5 Corners & Under 35.5 Booking Points (Coral #YourCall) at 4/1
Scorecast: Same as the EFL Cup - 2-1 – 15/2
 
Everton v Leicester City
Leicester are worthy favourites here. They look energised, confident and – Mahrez aside, perhaps -  their big players look variously settled in and settled down. And get this – they’ve only conceded once in six matches. That’s bad news for Everton, because no amount of Big Sam’s defensive drills and performance data will help them hit the net. Best they can muster here will be a draw, I fancy. 
Tap in: Leicester Draw No Bet at 4/5
Smart Bet: Leicester Win & BTTS at 11/2 (Price Boost at Coral)
Long Shot: Leicester Win, BTTS: Yes, Under 10.5 Corners & Over 35.5 Booking Points at 14/1
Scorecast: Leicester on points but 1-1 – 5/1  

Newcastle United v Burnley
Dyche Dyche baby has been constantly talking up his players during a tough spell – no wins in eight, four defeats on the spin. Keeping confidence buoyant for when the punishing run of fixtures cleared and winnable ones turned up again. Admittedly, Huddersfield and Palace came and went with just a point to show, but I can’t see them leaving with nothing here. Bit of value in the away win too. 
Tap in: Double Chance: Burnley or Draw at 7/10
Smart Money: Burnley Win & Under 3.5 Goals at 10/3
Long Shot: Draw/ Burnley HT/FT at 13/2
Scorecast: Burnley need this so 0-1 – 15/2

Southampton v Brighton
Brighton took the stiffs to Boro in the cup so obviously fancy this one. Not that that will send shivers down Southampton’s spine, the FA Cup win was their first on the road in six and only the third all season.
The Saints are a funny lot. Moody. A punters’ nightmare.  Pick their matches. And draw a lot of  games. 
Tap in: Pff! Not on my watch.
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 14/5
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: An edgy 0-0 – 13/2

Man City v West Brom
West Brom beat Liverpool in the FA Cup… Liverpool beat Man City in the PL… So pile into the 20/1 Away Win, right? Well, no, It doesn’t work like that sadly. But those odds are genuine, by the way. 
Albion have turned a corner since New Year and aren’t far away from being the mid-table team we all thought they were. This is a free hit too. Their next five home matches will save their season, not this one. 
The trick with City is pitching just how arsed they are. Sunday’s Cup win was their first clean sheet in seven and there have only been four from their 12 at home all season.  And West Brom have score in their last five on the road, so let’s go for it shall we?
Tap in: Man City to Win at 1/7
Smart Money: Man City Win & BTTS at 2/1
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: Let’s go 3-1 – 10/1

Stoke Cty v Watford
Watford are clinging to a Top Half despite one win in 11. No, really. But they are only one defeat away from level pegging with fourth bottom Stoke. And two away from rock bottom.  So this can be called a six-pointer between two teams eight places apart. 
Neither manager has had enough time to make it all the way to the drawing board, if he even thinks he needs to. Even the Over 2.5 Goals banker is in question. Not sure either team is good enough to win it, so nothing silly here.
Tap In: Stoke Draw No Bet at 6/10
Smart Money: 
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: Let’s try a desmond - 2-2 – 12/1

Tottenham v Man United
Ah, remember the days when this would be a guaranteed goal-fest? With Spurs usually 3-0 at half time, only to lose 4-5 or something… This won’t.
A cursory glance at Tottenham’s season stats tells you the Spurs story… Unbeaten in 18 v teams outside the Top Seven. Five defeats from six v Top Seven. Anything less than three points here will create a bit of a gap between them and the Top Four, which will only get more difficult to close when Cups, Champions Leagues and pressure come into play.  United have won their last three on the road and not conceded in six. I can’t them getting beaten here.
Tap In: Under 3.5 Goals at 4/11
Smart Money: Draw & Under 2.5 Goals at 17/5 
Long Shot: 
Scorecast: Has the look of a 1-1 – 11/2

It’s all go this week. Tune in on Thursday for your weekend preview.

Matt Nesbitt   

Who the hell is Matt Nesbitt?

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World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

World Cup 2010 Prediction Panel with Ruud Gullit and Sky’s Charlotte Jackson

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